"We'll Test These Two To The Wire"

That is maybe the second-most famous thing that Chic Anderson ever said in a race call. Needless to say, "He is moving like a tremendous machine!", ranks #1 on the Chic Chart, but the quote in the title of this post was nearly as amazing. Anderson said this shortly after Alydar poked a head in front of Affirmed in the stretch of the 1978 Belmont Stakes.

If you watch the replay of that 1978 Belmont (which you can at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apBIGFWMFr0), notice how well Steve Cauthen dictated the pace with Affirmed in the early stages. He went a quarter in 25 seconds and a half in 50 seconds. Conversely, Stewart Elliot on Smarty Jones in 2004 went a half in 48 and change and had nothing left in the stretch when Birdstone mounted his challenge. Anderson even notes several times in the race call how slow the pace of the race is. Cauthen assured that he would have enough horse in the stretch when he would need it the most.

Jorge Velazquez was aboard Alydar and he had his horse in front in that classic stretch duel and that likely spurred Affirmed to come back and get the win and the Triple Crown. Affirmed was much like Silver Charm in that respect. Bob Baffert always said that if the Charm could see you, you weren't going to get by him. While Silver Charm never did see Touch Gold until it was too late in the 1997 Belmont, Affirmed had Alydar in his sights almost all the way around the racetrack. Had Velazquez waited to stick a nose in front with Alydar, might the result have been different? Well, we'll never know.

The Belmont Stakes has had many memorable renewals in the previous 140 years, but maybe none quite like the 1978 edition. Just based on what was at stake, the players and the rivalry involved, and the fact that Affirmed is the last Triple Crown winner we have had, it might have been the greatest Belmont Stakes we have seen and it might be the greatest one we will ever see.

Tune in again tomorrow for another look back at the Belmont from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of championsgallery.com

What If...?

The big question coming out of the Preakness is whether or not Rachel Alexandra will start in the Belmont. To some on the scene and watching the race on TV, she seemed very tired in the aftermath of her greatest achievement. She had to be sponged repeatedly to cool her off. This happens to many horses following a hard race, but this horse is something special, so everyone has to be very careful with her going forward. That creates the question as to whether or not she will race at 1 1/2 miles in the "Test Of The Champion" in three weeks, but what if she had more time to get ready for the 141st Belmont Stakes.

I think there are two alternatives to the current Triple Crown schedules that are acceptable to the one we have now. To review that for those of you scoring at home, the Derby is the first Saturday in May, the Preakness is two weeks after that, and the Belmont is three weeks after the Preakness. Why can't you have three weeks between each race? This gives more recovery time after the longest race of their careers (the Derby) and stretches the overall time between the series to six weeks instead of five.

The other alternative is to run each race on the first Saturday of each month. The Derby on the first Saturday in May, the Preakness on the first Saturday in June, and the Belmont on the first Saturday in July. What is the big deal with giving young, fragile horses sufficient recovery time between the most grueling races they will ever run in their careers?

Is it because Secretariat did it that way? Take that tradition stuff and stick it in a sock, folks. Gallant Fox won the Preakness four days BEFORE he won the Derby in 1930. Does that cheapen Secretariat's accomplishment because he didn't do it on the same schedule? Of course not.

Thoroughbreds are not as sturdy as they were in Secretariat's day, just as they weren't as sturdy in Secretariat's day as they were in Gallant Fox's day. The sport's marquee events need to evolve with the breed to give the horses of today an adequate chance to complete the Crown and even more so, a chance to do it in one piece.

Tune in for more tomorrow from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

WOW!

It is not often that a horse race lives up to the hype, but the 134th running of the Preakness Stakes on Saturday certainly fulfilled all the pre-race expectations. How often do you see the winner of the Kentucky Oaks hold off the winner of the Kentucky Derby in a captivating stretch drive at the Preakness? Well, the right answer is never.





Rachel Alexandra was challenged early by Big Drama and late by a charging Mine That Bird and Musket Man to win the Black-Eyed-Susans in 1:55 flat. She almost single-handedly pushed the TV ratings of the Preakness up 27% from last year, when we all thought Big Brown was the real deal. She is being talked about in the same breath with Ruffian as maybe the greatest filly runner of all time. And you know what, I think she might be deserving of the comparison.





Mine That Bird was a large part of the Preakness story also. No one thought his Kentucky Derby win was legitimate. Now, everyone thinks it is. He came rallying late from last place up the backstretch (sound familiar?) to very nearly turn himself from a 50-1 outsider to a potential Triple Crown champion. If he had won Saturday, the movie script was already being written somewhere in the Disney studios.





Calvin Borel might become a certified Hall Of Famer in his own right as a result of the last several weeks. He rides the Kentucky Oaks winner to a Secretariat-like score. He then wins his second Kentucky Derby in three years with a rail ride, matching his effort with Street Sense on Mine That Bird. He then gets off the Derby winner to ride the Oaks winner in the Preakness and gallantly holds off the Derby winner to win on the Oaks winner. Now that I think about it, I might get into the Hall Of Fame just for understanding and explaining that whole deal in a single paragraph.





So, the new question is will the filly run in the Belmont? We already know that Mine That Bird will go in the Belmont and he probably should be the favorite. After all, his Sire (Birdstone) won the Belmont and denied Smarty Jones the Triple Crown in 2004, so the distance is in the lineage. Should Rachel Alexandra go in the Belmont? Well, I am glad this is not my decision. One thing I think I can say with certainty is that Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen will do whatever is best for the horse, regardless of what the public wants them to do. If they run her, we might have a great rivalry on our hands. If they don't run her, she might put together a record-setting campaign in 2009 and already be a Classic winner.





Speaking of Classic, this might be a Classic win-win situation for all of horse racing.



Tune in tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of newsday.com

Preakness Picks

The middle jewel of the Triple Crown is Saturday at Old Hilltop. The weather forecast is calling for some rain during the program, so the track condition could be iffy for the Preakness. This does not send me off my top pick in the race which is #3 Musket Man. He ran a great race in the Derby to finish 3rd at 19-1 and his pairing with jockey Eibar Coa has produced that third and a good win in the Illinois Derby. His work at Monmouth on May 12 was a speedy 4F in 46.3. He should be primed for another big effort and keep in mind he has never been worse than third in seven lifetime starts. Derby runner-up, #9 Pioneerof The Nile, stands a good shot of being runner-up again or even better in the Preakness. The Baffert trainee handled the off-track well in the Derby and even if it rains Saturday, it shouldn't affect the So. Cal. runner. While the filly will be the favorite, Pioneerof The Nile should be second choice in the wagering at Pimlico. Speaking of the filly, I will put #13 Rachel Alexandra third. By all rights, she should be the winner. She is the best three-year-old in the country, but the far outside post could be a problem with her speed. It all but guarantees she will have to cover more ground than anyone in the field and anyone that thinks Mine That Bird will bounce off his Derby has to think that she should have a regression off her shattering Oaks performance also. For a longshot to like, how about #11 Take The Points? He is 30-1 on the morning line, adding blinkers, and trained by Todd Pletcher. That's an intriguing trifecta of facts in his favor on Saturday.

What happened to #2 Mine That Bird you might ask? Well, if the track comes up wet, I fully expect him to be in the mix. If not, that bounce factor could strike again. Also, Mike Smith is an excellent jockey, but the ride Calvin Borel gave him in the Derby will become the stuff of legend. Borel is riding the filly in the Preakness. Don't think I dislike #5 Friesan Fire either. My top Derby pick will certainly get some consideration in the Preakness from me.

Tune in on Monday for a look back at the Preakness from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Truth And Consequences

Rachel Alexandra has drawn the outside post position in the thirteen-horse Preakness Stakes. How does this negatively affect her chances on Saturday? Well, it almost guarantees her a wide trip. She will likely try to go to the front (or near it) and she will be caught outside all the speed. I feel that Big Drama, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, Pioneerof The Nile, Take The Points, and Tone It Down could all block her path to the garden spot. What if she elects to run with them early? Her post will compromise her overpowering ability since she should lose a bit of her edge getting to the front.

What about the other possibility? Letting the speed go and trying to rate slightly. This horse has lost three times in her ten-race career and each of those times was when she sat off the pace. So, she is going to have to gun it from the break and try to get the lead.

The post also takes away the best asset of her rider, Calvin Borel (or Calvin Bo-Rail), which is getting to the fence and riding it all the way to victory.

Her (new) connections expressed pleasure at the way the draw went, but what are they supposed to say? They have to try to put a brave face on it, no matter what. They are getting into uncharted waters here and they are trying for a stable atmosphere. The less they stir up, the better for them.

So, there is the truth, now what are the consequences? Her price will be way too low to bet her on Saturday. If she goes off at anything higher than her morning-line odds, you should consider it a bargain. My guess is she will be something close to even money at post time and, even though, she might be a "superhorse", I don't know if I can wager on her at that price.

Tune in tomorrow for the official Preakness picks from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Deputed Testamony

In the Preakness, there are always new shooters. There are also local Maryland-based horses that get entered by horsemen with a dream. Sometimes these dreams almost come true, as in Magic Weisner in 2002 and Scrappy T in 2005, both of whom finished second behind horses that hit the board in the Kentucky Derby.

Back in 1983, some local Maryland horsemen had a dream (Bill Boniface and Bonita Farm, to be exact) and darned if it didn't come true. Deputed Testamony won the 1983 Preakness, defeating 1983 Derby winner, Sunny's Halo, in the process. Deputed Testamony had won the Federico Tesio earlier at Pimlico during the 1983 spring meet to earn a chance to run for the Black-Eyed-Susans. He came through and won the Preakness that year over a sloppy racetrack and although he ran sixth in the Belmont, he came back later that year and won the Haskell at Monmouth Park.

Deputed Testamony ran twenty times, winning eleven of those and running second in three others. The picture above is from well after his retirement. He won't go down as one of the great Preakness winners of all time, but in Maryland's eyes, he was a hero and he stands today as the focal point for all those Maryland dreamers who want those Black-Eyed-Susans, even more than the Roses or the Carnations. He gives them hope and hope is always a good thing (just ask Morgan Freeman).

There will be no post on Wednesday from They Are Off, but tune in again on Thursday for a look at the draw. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of bonitafarm.com

You Go Girl!

Well, well, well. Rachel Alexandra will go in the 134th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on Saturday. She will more than likely be the heavy favorite in the wake of her crushing win in the Kentucky Oaks on May 1 and the fact that the Derby field really didn't acquit themselves very well the following day.

The owners of Mine That Bird and Pioneerof The Nile were trying to do some shifty maneuvering to try and keep the best three-year-old in the country out of the race, but they backed off. Rachel Alexandra has to supplement for $100,000 to get into the Preakness and any supplement gets second consideration behind any horse previously nominated for the Triple Crown. The other connections were considering entering (and then scratching) lesser horses (one of which I believe is a maiden) to keep the filly out. Thankfully, they thought better of that plan and she is a go and I think that is a good thing. One thing any competitor should want to do is beat the best.

In my opinion, Rachel Alexandra is the best three-year-old in the country (male or female) and she should be in the sport's showcase events. Let's see how she does against the boys. Don't forget it was only two years ago that Rags To Riches topped Curlin to become the first filly to win the Belmont Stakes in over a century.

As for Mine That Bird, the connections wanted to keep the filly out, but they also wanted to maintain Calvin Borel in the saddle. They are now going to their second choice, but I have the feeling they will still get a good ride. I also have the feeling they will still get a good price. Mine That Bird should be no less than 10-1 on Saturday. He might be the longest-priced Derby winner ever to run in the Preakness.

It's going to be a fascinating week.

Tune in tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

The Grade 3 Lone Star Derby

The premier three-year-old race in the state of Texas occurs on Saturday with the Grade 3 $400,000 Lone Star Derby at Lone Star Park at Grand Prairie. It is a small field of seven, but there is quite a bit of quality present. I am thinking that the Bob Baffert trainee, #5 Mayor Marv, might jump out to the lead and go all the way in front. He won the Turf Paradise Derby and broke his maiden with front-running scores. He tried to do it also in the Sunland Park Derby (which also featured Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird), but faded on the turn to run 11th. #3 Uno Mas finished behind Friesan Fire in three straight at Fair Grounds this winter and spring. His work on May 2 was strong and he gets one of the area's top jockeys in Cliff Berry. #2 Cape Truth is a California invader with two wins in three lifetime starts. The only time the Doug O'Neill trainee missed the money was a turf try in the Pasadena Stakes on the grass at Santa Anita. This will be his first start on dirt, since the two wins came on artificial surface. #7 Mythical Power was the runner-up in the Sunland Park Derby (which by the way ought to be graded in time for its next running). This is the second Baffert trainee in the field with Victor Espinoza aboard. The only other time Espinoza rode resulted in a third in his debut effort. Here is the play for the Lone Star Derby:

$10 WPS #5

I know it's simple, but if Mayor Marv hits the board, you'll get something back. As always, They Are Off is only making a suggestion and accepts no responsibility for any wagers made based on these picks. Tune in again on Monday for the beginning of Preakness week. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Admission

You know, I like to consider myself a professional handicapper. For many years, I have written a tip sheet for the track I work for and also done the morning-line there. Since I work at the track, I really try not to bet too often. It just wouldn't do to just turn my paychecks back to my employer to wager since I have things like rent, car payment, phone, electricity, and other basic expenses I need to live. For that reason, my biggest hit ever has been a $565 pick-three in the summer of 2008.

However, we have a new record-high after Derby weekend. I had the exacta of 8-16 in the Kentucky Derby and cashed a new topper of $2,075. You might ask how I hit that crazy exacta of Mine That Bird and Pioneerof The Nile. Well, I could go into a long dissertation as to how I am a professional and analyzed all the information and came up with the wager that moved to #1 on my personal list, but I won't.

I was born on August 16, 1970. Also, known as 8-16-70. Since there is no #70 in the Derby, I did a birthday bet of 8-16 as an exacta box. Just that simple. Sometimes, folks, it is just your day and I guess that Saturday was mine.

Tune in tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Rachel Alexandra

Mine That Bird scored a monumental upset in the 135th Kentucky Derby on Saturday, winning at odds of 50-1. By now, the story of the connections and the horse's humble situation has been told and retold. With all of the hoopla now surrounding the Cinderella story, let's not lose sight of the fact that the best three-year-old in the country also ran at Churchill Downs this past weekend. Rachel Alexandra is her name and she turned in a performance that can only be described as "Secretariat-esque".

Yes, that's right, I am invoking Big Red's name in describing what she did to the field in the 134th running of the Kentucky Oaks. While it is true that the scratch of the second-best horse in the field (Justwhistledixie) with an abscess probably extended her winning margin, she still wins the Oaks easily. She won the race by an astonishing 20 1/4 lengths. Jockey Calvin Borel never even moved on her back through the stretch. Bravo race caller Tom Durkin likened Borel to a statue in the final moments of the race. Borel himself would call the horse, "the best horse I have ever ridden in my life". This from a man who is the only rider to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby aboard the same horse (Street Sense in 2007).

The question for the connections of Rachel Alexandra is what to do with her now. Do they try to challenge the boys in either the Preakness or the Belmont (which they would have to supplement $100,000 to do)? Do they try to capture New York's Triple Tiara (Acorn, Mother Goose, CCA Oaks) and then try the boys in the Haskell or Travers this summer? Do they forget the boys altogether and keep her running against females, pointing for a showdown with the formidable Zenyatta in Breeder's Cup at Santa Anita (albeit over an artificial surface)? I can tell you this, it is a set of questions I would love to have to deal with.

Tune in tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of drf.com

Mine That Bird

The second-biggest longshot in the 135 year history of the Kentucky Derby won the race on Saturday. Mine That Bird had been the Canadian two-year-old champion last year and had been running at Sunland Park in New Mexico, where he couldn't win in two races. He did win four times at Woodbine, including the Grade 3 Grey Cup Stakes, named after the CFL's championship trophy. The trainer vanned the horse 21 hours from New Mexico to Kentucky for the race. The horse's previous highest Beyer speed figure was an 81.

All of this prompts the biggest question of all from Saturday's race, how was this horse only 50-1? Even the other 50-1 shots had field-comparable Beyer figures. Mine That Bird, by all rights, should have been closer to Donerail's 91-1 odds that he won with in 1913. There are only two answers that come to mind, either there was a huge contingent of Audubon Society members watching the race or everyone that had him took a chance on Calvin Borel. The trainer, Chip Woolley, admitted that he owed the win to Borel after the race and it was a masterful ride to be sure. If you have a chance to see it, go back and watch the overhead shot of the race to see a genius in action with Borel hugging and, at some points, touching the rail.

Saturday's events, however, truly prove why horse racing is such a magnificent sport. Stables like Godolphin, Darley, Winstar, and others try desperately to win the Kentucky Derby every year. In fact, Godolphin has stated over and over that their biggest goal is to win the Derby. Godolphin and their love of the sport has truly helped racing over the last several years while they have been trying to win the Roses by pouring money into their efforts and building a first and now a second magnificent facility in the desert at Dubai. Saturday just showed why you cannot buy those Roses, just like a golfer cannot buy a Green Jacket. You can spend all kinds of money on fabulously-bred, expensive horses and you can run up the track. Meanwhile, a $9,500 purchase can come from absolute nowhere, fly up the rail, win by the largest margin since 1946 for a trainer on crutches and two owners who looked intimidated to be talking to Bob Costas and become the darling of the equine world.

It certainly is some game, isn't it?

Tune it tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of UPI.com

It's Friesan Fire...

...for me in the 135th Kentucky Derby. I honestly thought he was the winner before the forecasts called for rain. All that did was ruin my price. I expected to get around 6-1 or 7-1 on the Louisiana Derby winner, but now everyone will be on him if the track comes up wet and that will drop his price to around 4-1 or 5-1. Certainly not what I hoped for. His razor-sharp work earlier this week just put an exclamation point on my feelings for him in the Derby. Trainer Larry Jones ought to get a Derby win before he retires and I think the stars will align for him.

As far as the other 19 going to the gate on Saturday, I do like Musket Man to be there at the finish, which is contrary to some popular thoughts. His Sire is Yonaguska, who could not go farther than seven furlongs at his best. However, Musket Man's win in the Illinois Derby really impressed me with the style it was done, a style that should serve him well in the Derby. Also, I expect him to be no less than 20-1 and I certainly like that price.

Desert Party is another that stands out and gets into my top three on Saturday. He defeated Regal Ransom, his Godolphin stablemate, twice in three head-to-head match-ups. If you like both of those horses, doesn't Desert Party have to get a bit of an edge for that very reason? Advice can certainly be a factor in the race also. His win in the Lexington was resounding two weeks ago, but the ever-present Polytrack question could be a tough one for him to answer. Papa Clem won the Arkansas Derby and that is always a strong Derby prep. However, he also finished 7 1/4 lengths behind my top pick in the Louisiana Derby.

So, how do you bet the Derby and not go broke in the process? I will be taking the easy way out and do a simple five-horse exacta box with the runners I like here. Remember, They Are Off assumes no responsibility for any wagers made in conjunction with these suggestions. Tune in again on Monday for a Derby recap. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

PLAY FOR THE 135TH KENTUCKY DERBY: $1 EX BOX 2-4-6-7-19
TOTAL- $20

What The Voices Think

One of the most overlooked (believe me, I know) positions at the racetrack is my own, track announcer. Well, we take care of that here with the selections of some of the top track announcers in North America (and certainly some good friends of mine) for the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday:

Jason Beem (Portland Meadows)- Dunkirk
Craig Braddick (Arapahoe Park)- Dunkirk
Larry Collmus (Gulfstream, Monmouth)- Desert Party
John G. Dooley (Fair Grounds, Arlington)- Friesan Fire
Tom Harris (Retama)- Pioneerof The Nile
Dan Loiselle (Woodbine)- Desert Party
Frank Miramahdi (Turf Paradise)- Pioneerof The Nile
Vic Stauffer (Hollywood Park)- Chocolate Candy
James Witherite-Rieg (Chester Harness)- Dunkirk

So, the vocal majority goes with Dunkirk (3 votes), it's a dead heat for second between Desert Party and Pioneerof The Nile (2 votes), with Chocolate Candy and Friesan Fire getting one vote each. Thanks to each of my compatriots that responded to the big Derby question.

I will take Rachel Alexandra in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, by the way. She is the best three-year-old in the country in my opinion. As far as MY Derby pick, well, you just have to check back with They Are Off again on Friday. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Derby (Win, Lose, or) Draw

Today was the draw for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. I Want Revenge has been installed as the morning line favorite at 3-1 from post 13. Dunkirk and Pioneerof The Nile drew posts 15 and 16, respectively, and are co-second choices at 4-1. Normally, we would be able to watch this on one of the ESPN family of networks. Not this year, since ESPN feels we need to have more Woody Paige and Tony Kornheiser, the draw was not televised.

Also, those of you wishing to see the best three-year-old in the country this weekend will have to go to an OTB or your local racetrack for simulcasting. That is because ESPN also pulled the normal Friday airing of the Kentucky Oaks. Hence, no Rachel Alexandra on Friday either. It truly boggles the mind how the supposed network of the sport of Thoroughbred racing can forgo covering the marquee weekend in the sport. Granted, they are showing some of the races on Saturday afternoon, but in light of what they normally do, ESPN is sadly lacking this year. Wonder if they will show the entire two days of the Breeders' Cup this fall, be it from Santa Anita or Churchill Downs?

Tune in tomorrow for some Derby picks from some of my announcing cohorts. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Dust Commander

The year I was born, the winner of the Kentucky Derby was a bit of an upset. 15-1 shot Dust Commander came through on the rail under jockey Mike Manganello to win the Roses in a time of 2:03.2.

You might think that the time is a bit pedestrian and you might be right, but Dust Commander's winning margin in the Derby was five lengths. That is the largest winning margin of the 1970s. Consider that sentence for a moment. The 1970s included three Triple Crown winning horses (Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed), two other horses that had legitimate chances to do it (Canonero II and Spectacular Bid), and two other horses that won the Belmont after winning the Derby (Riva Ridge and Bold Forbes).

This might just be a testament to the weakness of the 1970 field, but keep in mind that Naskra was part of that field as was Belmont winner High Echelon. It just was not a bunch of pushovers in 1970. Certainly, Dust Commander won't go down in history as a great champion, that's for sure, but on the one day he had to be, he certainly was great. If you would like to watch the 1970 Kentucky Derby in its entirety, here is the Youtube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDbLfLsTr3s.

Tune in tomorrow for more Derby talk from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of www.kyderbyfan.freeservers.com

Super Six Derby Pix

This will be the final set of Derby Pix before the big day on Saturday, so we better make it a good one. Quality Road, who has been a Derby favorite for months, is now out of the Derby with quarter-crack problems in his hoof and that opens up a spot on the list. Here is the last set of Super Six Derby Pix:

1) Friesan Fire- I continue to be more and more impressed with this guy as the days to the Derby grow fewer. He worked Monday morning (5 furlongs in 57.4) in spectacular fashion and I think he is the real deal, seven-week layoff or no seven-week layoff. Trainer Larry Jones deserves the Roses and I think he will get them.

2) I Want Revenge- The likely favorite on Derby Day will be running for the first time since his impressive Wood Memorial win where he overcame missing the start and traffic trouble to win going away. The unfortunate thing for him is that he won't be able to do that on Derby Day. Getting through seven other horses is a whole different thing that getting through nineteen horses. He will be way overbet as well.

3) Dunkirk- I think this is another horse that will take too much of the public's fancy on Saturday. He is very lightly raced and the fact that he couldn't get past Quality Road in the Florida Derby still bothers me. His last work (5 furlongs in 1:01 flat) was strong and he is trained by Todd Pletcher, so there is a lot to like here, but I still think I will look elsewhere.

4) Musket Man- I believe this will be the lively longshot on Derby Day. I am expecting to get no less than 15-1 on the Illinois Derby winner. The favorite that day, Giant Oak, has already pulled out to try his luck on the grass in Chicago this summer. Musket Man's running style could be suited to the Derby, laying off the pace and making a move on the turn. He should most definitely be used in exotic wagers.

5) Regal Ransom- He and his Godolphin teammate, Desert Party, both bettered one minute in five furlong workouts this past weekend. The word around the backside is that both horses are taking well to the track at Churchill Downs. Godolphin wants nothing more than a Derby win and it seems that this year, they have two likely candidates.

6) Pioneerof The Nile- I have not really liked this horse all spring. He did not do much for me in Southern California, even in victory. How will running on the synthetic surface there translate to Kentucky? His Monday work (5 furlongs in 1:00.4) was excellent and Bob Baffert certainly knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby, but again, he will be bet heavily and at the price I will get, I will be looking at others.

We will, of course, keep updating throughout the week on They Are Off. Official selections for the 135th Kentucky Derby will be posted on Friday, but you might be able to tell where I am going to go already. Kentucky Oaks picks will also be made this week, so there will be quite a bit of Derby info here. Tune in all week for more on the Derby from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

The Grade 3 Derby Trial Stakes

Churchill Downs opens the spring meet on Saturday with the Grade 3 Derby Trial being the highlight of the Opening Day card. Before you think that any of the participants might be a factor in a week in the Kenutcky Derby, no horse that won the Derby Trial has gone on to win the Derby since Tim Tam in 1958. Don't Get Mad in 2005 ran in the Trial and finished 4th in the Derby itself, but let's be serious.

There is a whole lot of speed in this race and that could open things up for an off-the-pace runner. If you are looking for a likable longshot, try #4 Checklist at 8-1 on the morning line. The Pletcher trainee has shown a small possibility of sitting off the pace in the past performances. However, he is stepping up in class here and I am not a fan of the fact that John Velazquez elected to ride #5 Santana Six over him today. #1 Silver City is clearly the class of the speed, but there is going to be a contested pace for him and it will be up to Juilen Leparoux to get him to relax a bit. #7 Hull scratched out of the Grade 2 Lexington at Keeneland last week and appears again here with Miguel Mena aboard. So, here is a fun little play for the Derby Trial.

$1 EX BOX 1-4-5-7 and $2 TRI 1-4 with 1-4 with 5-7
TOTAL- $20

Remember, They Are Off is only suggesting a play for the Derby Trial tomorrow and accepts no responsibility for any wagers made based on these recommendations. They Are Off returns on Monday for Derby Week. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Doubt

It is time for a bit of a Zen-like handicapping tip from your author. I am enjoying watching my copy of the 1973 Kentucky Derby coverage and it is rather amazing to me that some of the "experts" on the telecast were discussing doubt regarding Secretariat. We sit here today thirty-six years on wondering how anyone could have possibly doubted Secretariat now.

Remember, though, that this was between two very different performances by Big Red. He lost the Wood Memorial to Angle Light and Sham just before the Kentucky Derby that year, we know now that he was suffering a painful abscess in his mouth that caused him problems at Aqueduct. This was not known at the time in 1973. Five weeks after the Derby, Secretariat forever cemented his place in racing lore with his 31-length score in the Belmont Stakes, which won him the Triple Crown.

The lesson here, though, is that doubt is prevalent in anything you do horse racing-wise. Your handicapping is included in that sentiment. You will inevitably have doubt as to whether you have selected the right horse, made the right wager, or considered the right angle. You cannot be victim to these doubts you will have, you cannot bet every horse in any race because you just cannot afford it. Whenever you make a wager, whether you are slumping or winning everything in sight, be confident in it. Negative thoughts (or doubt) will cause negative things to happen. When you are putting your money where your mouth is, positive thoughts must prevail.

Tune in to They Are Off tomorrow for a look at the Derby Trial at Churchill Downs. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

voiceofsantaanita.com

We all know that the Voice of Santa Anita nowadays is the phenomenal Trevor Denman, who has been redefining the art of track announcing since the mid 80s. However, well before Trevor, the Voice of Santa Anita was the legendary Joe Hernandez. I would like to recommend Rudy Alvarado's book, which is available through the website in the title. The book was the winner of the prestigious Dr. Tony Ryan Book Award and is an excellent read. So, They Are Off offers congratulations to Rudy Alvarado on his work and all the accolades he has received for it.

We also wish to take a quick moment to thank paulickreport.com for linking to They Are Off through that website. We link to the Paulick Report here and it is a valuable tool for anyone looking for more information on horse racing. Tune in tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Spirit Of '76

One of my all-time favorite Kentucky Derby winners is Bold Forbes. The 1976 winner defeated less than even-money favorite, Honest Pleasure, with a front-running score at odds of 3-1.

This has got to go down as one of the greatest training jobs in Derby history by Laz Barrera. Barrera knew that his horse was a sprinting specialist that had dominated racing in Puerto Rico, having won seven of eight races as a two-year-old. Barrera worked his horse until he learned how not to go all-out from the get-go and how to conserve some energy for the distance he would face in the Derby. After a half-mile at Churchill, Bold Forbes had a five-length lead. Once the field hit the stretch, Honest Pleasure had cut the lead to less than a length and most observers felt that the favorite was going to blow on by. It was at this point that the training that Barrera had done came into effect and Bold Forbes had enough left to protect his lead and win the Roses by a length.

The ride given Bold Forbes by Angel Cordero was also a thing of beauty. He rode the horse to that large lead and six furlongs in a time of 1:10.2. He and Barrera had a gameplan and he stuck to it all the way around the track and earned the second of his three Derby triumphs (the others coming on Cannonade in 1974 and Spend A Buck in 1985, another front-running win).

Barrera and Cordero made quite a team with Bold Forbes in the spring of 1976. Although Bold Forbes ran 3rd in the Preakness, three weeks later, Barrera and Cordero did it again and stole the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes on the front end to win by a neck. Barrera was inducted into the Hall Of Fame in 1979 and Cordero followed him in 1988. Their work with Bold Forbes certainly didn't solely get them honored, but the work they did also certainly didn't hurt their cases.

Bold Forbes isn't in the Hall Of Fame yet, but he was the Champion Three-Year-Old in 1976. Bold Forbes hit the board in all eighteen of his lifetime starts with thirteen wins, one second, and four thirds. Tune in tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of completerider.com

Super Six Derby Pix

The last of the Derby prep races was taken this Saturday at Keeneland by Advice, winner of the Coolmore Lexington. The story coming out of the race, however, was Square Eddie. Square Eddie already had enough graded earnings to get into the Derby field and looked OK in his first start in thirteen weeks. Was that enough to get him into the Super Six Derby Pix? Well, let's find out:

1) Friesan Fire- Worked this weekend and will have a drill next Monday over the track at Churchill Downs for trainer Larry Jones, who is following the same tack he took with his two Derby runner-ups in the last two years, Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Something just keeps gnawing at me that this year is Jones' turn to win it all.

2) Quality Road- Best of the Florida contingent with wins in the Fountain Of Youth and Florida Derby. The only other horse to really emerge from Florida this year appears to be Dunkirk. It calls into question how good he is if he still hasn't really faced anything else, but then you might be able to say the same for Friesan Fire and his Louisiana route to the Derby.

3) I Want Revenge- In my opinion, this will be your betting favorite come Derby Day, maybe at a lukewarm 5-1 or 6-1 on the tote board. His Wood Memorial was terrific after the start, but if he misses the break at Churchill, he has to go through nineteen horses instead of seven as he did at Aqueduct.

4) Dunkirk- Edgar Prado has been named the rider for the Derby. His move on the final turn of the Florida Derby was visually impressive, but he still couldn't get by Quality Road. He will likely be the hot horse going into the Derby, but so were Noble Causeway and Stephen Got Even. He is still very lightly raced for a Derby horse.

5) Musket Man- The Illinois Derby winner showed a running style suited to success on the first Saturday in May at Hawthorne. Again, he might suffer from not beating anyone he will face in Louisville in that Chicago race. The favorite from that day, Giant Oak, is already out of the Derby and looking elsewhere.

6) Square Eddie- He had enough money to get in going into the Lexington and I think he provided his connections with exactly what they were looking for that day. He led into the stretch and then showed the effects of his 13-week layoff by slowing a bit and ending up third. He got the tightener necessary to be ready for the Derby and he might be a factor, even after the injury and layoff. Would be a fabulous story if he won it.

Regal Ransom fell off the list this week, but he and Desert Party have been impressing in Kentucky already. It will be interesting to see how they lead into the race in twelve days. They Are Off also wishes to congratulate all of the Hall Of Fame inductees announced today: Bob Baffert, Eddie Maple, Tiznow, Silverbulletday, Janet Elliot, and Ben Nevis II. Tune in tomorrow for more from They Are Off. Right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

The Lexington Stakes

Saturday is the last chance for any contenders for the Kentucky Derby that are not in to get in to the top twenty on the graded stakes earnings list. The Grade 2 $300,000 Lexington Stakes was won in 1999 by Charismatic, who went on to win both the Derby and the Preakness, so it is certainly possible to win this close to the First Saturday in May and still be a factor come that day. I think there will be speed duel in this race between #3 Pitched Perfectly and #12 Hull. That scenario could set things up for a horse to come from slightly off the pace, which suits the longshot I really like in the race, #10 Parade Clown, who is 15-1 on the morning line. Julien Leparoux will be aboard, blinkers will be coming off, and he ran 4th in the Grade 2 Lane's End at Turfway Park on March 21. #6 Masala is my second choice in here. As opposed to the top pick, he adds blinkers here. He also ran 4th in his last graded effort, the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct. The Sire is 2004 Derby runner-up, Lion Heart, who was a front-runner, but this horse has not shown any craving for the front so far. Finally, I will include the morning line favorite, #8 Square Eddie, who is returning from an injury and a layoff caused by that injury. He already has enough graded earnings to make the Derby. I think this race is just a tightener for two weeks from now and the 9-5 price is just too short for my liking. If he wins, he'll do it without my money.

Tune in again on Monday for the updated Super Six Derby Pix. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Encouragement

I highly encourage (hence the title of this post) everyone to click on the Martha Claussen's Column link on the left of the page to check out her story about They Are Off favorite, ESPN's Jeannine Edwards. I had the opportunity to work with Jeannine several years ago during Houston's Texas Champions Day broadcast and she was fabulous in every way. Read the story and find out a bit more about one of racing's finest people.

Tune in again tomorrow for a look at Saturday's Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Everything But The Roses

It is a fact in Thoroughbred racing that the favorite doesn't always win. A longshot can win any race at any time. That fact also applies to the Kentucky Derby. Let's face facts, if the favorite won every Derby, it certainly wouldn't be considered "the most exciting two minutes in sports". So since the favorite gets beat from time to time, who are the best horses that never did win the Kentucky Derby? Well, here are six that spring to mind:

1) Native Dancer- Went 21 for 22 in his career. The only loss he suffered came to Dark Star in the 1953 Derby. "The Grey Ghost" might be considered the greatest horse of all time had he won the Derby. The loss was widely blamed on jockey Eric Guerin and some traffic trouble the Dancer suffered on the first turn. The Vanderbilt runner went on to win the Preakness, Belmont, and Travers that year. He was voted Champion Three-Year-Old in 1953 and Horse Of The Year in 1954. His progeny also carried on his greatness with names like Northern Dancer, Dancer's Image, Kauai King, and Raise A Native among the horses with Native Dancer in the lineage.

2) Nashua- Won 22 out of 30 lifetime starts, but came home behind Swaps in the 1955 Derby. Bill Shoemaker gave the West Coast runner an expert ride to cop the Roses, stealing the race on the front end. Nashua rebounded to win the Preakness and Belmont also, just like Native Dancer. He also made up for his loss to Swaps with a match race victory over his rival in Chicago. Nashua was named Champion Two-Year-Old in 1954 and Champion Three-Year-Old and Horse Of The Year in 1955.

3) Alydar- He had the great misfortune to come along the same year as Affirmed in 1978. Affirmed became the 11th Triple Crown winner in history, while Alydar goes down in history as the only horse ever to finish second in all three races. He got progressively closer and closer to Affirmed in each race and ended up losing the three-race series by less than three lengths. Alydar even stuck a nose in front of Affirmed in the stretch of the Belmont, as noted by race caller Chic Anderson. One place where Alydar exceeded Affirmed was in the breeding shed, producing horses like Alysheba, Easy Goer, and Strike The Gold.

4) Point Given- He really should have been the most recent Triple Crown winner in 2001 because he was that good. He drew the outside post position in the Derby and finished fifth, behind Monarchos, who ran 1:59.4 on a rock-hard racetrack. Even trainer Bob Baffert admitted afterward he had the horse too much on tilt that day. Point Given went on to match Native Dancer's accomplishment by winning the Preakness, Belmont, and Travers. He was voted Champion Three-Year-Old and Horse Of The Year in 2001.

5) Damascus- Won 21 of 32 lifetime starts and only missed the money once in that time. The 1967 Derby was supposed to be his, but John Galbreath's Darby Dan Farm produced the winner with 30-1 Proud Clarion, ridden to victory by Bobby Ussery in 2:00.3, the third-fastest Derby up to that time. Damascus came back to win the Preakness, Belmont, and Travers like the others on this list and was voted Champion Three-Year-Old, Champion Handicap Horse, and Horse Of The Year in 1967. He also won what many consider the greatest race of the 1960s, the 1967 Woodward, beating both Buckpasser and Dr. Fager in the process.

6) Easy Goer- Suffered the same issue that Alydar did, he came along the same year another great one did. Sunday Silence won the Derby, Preakness, and Breeders Cup Classic in 1989, beating Easy Goer each time. Easy Goer won the Belmont on his home track by nearly ten lengths, denying Sunday Silence the Triple Crown. Easy Goer's biggest problem might have been the surface at Churchill Downs. Keep in mind that he also lost the 1988 Breeders' Cup Juvenile over the Louisville strip and even with this, he was still named Champion Two-Year-Old in 1988. Easy Goer never missed the money in twenty starts, winning fourteen of them.

I know there is one glaring omission from this list, Man O'War. He did not win the Derby in 1920 because he did not run in it. Therefore, he doesn't qualify for this list since he did not get the opportunity to run from his owner, Samuel Riddle. His son, War Admiral, was sent to Louisville by Riddle and he won the Triple Crown his Sire wasn't given the chance to win in 1937. Tune in tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...Goodbye!

The Luckiest Of The Bs

In the 20s and 30s, Colonel E.R. Bradley was basically Calumet Farm before Calumet Farm. His Idle Hour Farm dominated the Kentucky Derby during that era and he had a strong contender almost every year. He also had the habit of naming all of his horses with words that started with the letter B. Bradley's first Derby win came with Behave Yourself in 1921, while his entrymate, Black Servant, finished 2nd. Five years later, in 1926, Bradley ran 1-2 again with Bubbling Over and Bagenbaggage. Bradley took the Roses a third time in 1932 with Burgoo King, whose entrymate Brother Joe finished 19th.

The last of Bradley's Derby scores came with the most remarkable of the group. In 1933, Brokers Tip won what has become known as "The Fighting Derby". Brokers Tip won one race in his fourteen-race career, the Kentucky Derby. His jockey, Don Meade, battled all the way down the stretch of the race with Herb Fisher, the rider on Head Play. The two jockeys whacked each other with their whips and were swinging all the way home before Brokers Tip managed to prevail. Head Play came back to win the Preakness (with Charley Kurtsinger aboard), while Brokers Tip was unplaced. It is interesting to note that Kurtsinger went on the ride maybe the best horse of the 30s in War Admiral.

As for Bradley, he never won another Derby. His best horse of all might have been 1940 runner-up, Bimelech, who lost to Gallahadion at odds of less than even money. Speaking of Bimelech, he serves as the perfect lead-in for tomorrow's topic, the best horses NOT to win the Run For The Roses. Tune in tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn this past weekend produced some interesting storylines. General Quarters was a 15-1 upset winner in Kentucky and punched the ticket to the Derby for his 75-year-old owner-trainer, Tom McCarthy. Papa Clem took down the Arkansas Derby, although Old Fashioned was gallant in defeat and subsequently retired after suffering an injury.

All this leaves only one more chance for those horses on the outside looking in for the First Saturday In May, the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland this coming weekend. This race was most famously won by Charismatic, won went on to win the 1999 Kentucky Derby two weeks later. So, with only one hurdle left to clear, here are the Super Six Derby Pix:

1) Friesan Fire- Still idle after the win in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, but trainer Larry Jones now has to consider this his last best hope for this year with Old Fashioned now on the sidelines. Will be most interested to see his workouts leading into May 2.

2) Quality Road- Drops a spot from last week after it was discovered he has a slight quarter-crack in a hoof. The connections don't think it will be a big deal for the Derby, but any slight nick at this time of year is usually a cause for panic.

3) I Want Revenge- Is he Fusaichi Pegasus or Bellamy Road? Both were winners of the Wood Memorial and both went into the Derby as favorites, as I Want Revenge is likely to do. FuPeg won the Derby in 2000, while Bellamy Road did not in 2005.

4) Dunkirk- With several horses dropping out, it is now inevitable that he will get into the Derby, which was not certain last week. His race in the Florida Derby was strong, although even with his big move on the turn, he was still turned back by Quality Road.

5) Regal Ransom- He and Desert Party have made the trip over to Kentucky from Dubai and now will (supposedly) have plenty of time to acclimate themselves to their new surroundings to get ready for the race Godolphin wants more than any other. We'll see.

6) Musket Man- Makes another appearance in the Pix here following his win in the Illinois Derby. His running style might be ideal for Derby Day and I would be very surprised to see him at anything less than 20-1 in the Run For The Roses.

Tune in again tomorrow for a look at the last maiden to win the Derby. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby

The next-to-last big weekend of Derby preps occurs over Easter weekend with The Grade 1 $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Grade 2 $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Let's take a good look at these two races and who might be thinking Roses coming out of them.

The Blue Grass Stakes
I tend to lean toward #10 Hold Me Back here, who finished fast to win the Grade 2 Lane's End at Turfway Park on March 21. He is now 2 for 2 over Polytrack surface, including a win at Keeneland during last fall's meeting. #3 Theregoesjojo was clearly the third-best horse in Florida at Gulfstream Park behind Quality Road and Dunkirk. His Beyers in the two races in Florida would clearly be better than anyone's here and if he runs those races again, he could be the winner. If there is a longshot to like in here, it just might be #8 General Quarters, who is 15-1 on the morning line. He won the Grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa and posted a blistering 5F workout at Churchill earlier this week.


The Arkansas Derby
#8 Old Fashioned needs to prove that his loss in the Grade 2 Rebel was a fluke and I think he is capable of doing that today. Terry Thompson reclaims his seat in the saddle from Ramon Dominguez after the loss and he is 2 for 2 aboard this runner. Trainer Larry Jones is one of the best in the business and he should have this colt ready to go here. I think that #9 Win Willy is just a horse for the course. However, this is the course he is the horse for. Win Willy is 2 for 2 at Oaklawn, including his upset win in the Grade 2 Rebel on March 14. His Sire is 2001 Derby winner, Monarchos. A longshot to consider in this spot is #4 Poltergeist, who is 20-1 for this go. He was 3rd in the Grade 2 Rebel and has a win and a third in three lifetime Oaklawn starts.

Tune in again on Monday for the updated Super Six Derby Pix and have a very Happy Easter. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

The Forgotten Champion

It is not easy to win The Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes for any horse. Thunder Gulch accomplished this in 1995, but even he is better remembered currently than another horse that did it and was a champion also. Riva Ridge turned the trick in 1972, which unfortunately for him was the year before his stablemate, Secretariat, turned the horse racing world on its ear. It was also the year after the unlikely Canonero II, the "Caracas Cannonball", came out of nowhere to win the Derby and Preakness and enthral the entire country with his and his connection's escapades.

Riva Ridge had the identical connections to Secretariat. He was owned the Chenery's Meadow Stable, trained by Lucien Laurin, and ridden by Ron Turcotte. Of course, he wore the same blue and white block silks of Secretariat for this reason. His only apparent flaw was that he did not like the slop. This cost him the Triple Crown in 1972 because it rained on Preakness Day. He never got a hold of the racetrack and finished a dull fourth behind longshot winner, Bee Bee Bee. Riva Ridge goes down as one of the great "What Ifs?" in sports. What if it hadn't rained? What if he had a chance to run his best race?

Riva Ridge's reputation also suffers from the fact that he lost to both of the champion Thoroughbreds I mentioned in the first paragraph. In his three-year-old season, he went down to Canonero II in what was the Venezuelan's last great performance in the Stymie Handicap. In his four-year-old season, Secretariat handled his stablemate in the Marlboro Cup, a race specfically set up to test the two against each other. Riva Ridge won seventeen of thirty lifetime races and hit the board in four others. He totalled over $1 million dollars in lifetime earnings. He should not be forgotten by any stretch of the imagination. He was a great horse that just had the misfortune of coming along in a decade that produced many great horses and many great stories.

Tune in again tomorrow for thoughts on the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby races this weekend. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of spiletta.com

Where Have All The Rivals Gone?

Seabiscuit vs. War Admiral, Nashua vs. Swaps, Affirmed vs. Alydar. Now those were some rivalries. The battles between those horses captivated the nation as they were going on and they now live in equine history. The great rivalry is something that is missing from Thoroughbred racing currently and it might be something you never see again. As a matter of fact, it has been twenty years since the last really great rivalry we had between Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. Those titans met four times (in the four most important races I might add) with Sunday Silence winning three and Easy Goer winning one.

Sunday Silence raced fourteen times in his career and was never worse than second in any of those races. He was trained by Charlie Whittingham and owned by Arthur Hancock III, both names of prominece in racing. In his matchups with Easy Goer, he won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Breeders' Cup Classic. His only defeat came in the Belmont Stakes, which was run on Easy Goer's home track. The 1989 Preakness still ranks in my book as the greatest horse race I have ever seen, and I am old enough to have seen the 1978 Belmont Stakes. Sunday Silence and Easy Goer battling all the way through the stretch until Sunday Silence just managed to prevail at the wire by a scant nose.

Easy Goer was also of regal stock, ironically Sired by Alydar, owned by Ogden Phipps and trained by Shug McGaughey. Certainly, no slouches on that list either. His lone win in the four-race series was actually the most impressive of the lot, an eight-length tour de force in the 1989 Belmont Stakes. His record is also staggering, starting twenty times and never finishing worse than third in any of them. Had he come along in any other year (much like Alydar), it is likely he could have been a Triple Crown winner.

So, where have all the rivals gone? Why has it been twenty years since the last great battle? It might be partly our fault. Horse racing had only started to take a backseat in the national conscience at that time and nothing has been able to stop the slide. Yes, I know the movie Seabiscuit and Smarty Jones stopped the bleeding momentarily, but the sporting public still doesn't stop the way it used to for a big race. President Franklin Roosevelt stopped a cabinet meeting to listen to the Seabiscuit/War Admiral match race, for heaven's sake.

I also think the racing connections of these horses nowadays are to blame. Lately, the only horse guaranteed to go on to the Preakness is the Derby winner. Even then, he will have to face several "new shooters" there. A horse can have five weeks rest between the Derby and Belmont if he does not go on to Pimlico, much like Birdstone did in 2004 when he ran down Smarty Jones. I don't know if there is a great rivalry brewing this year, but wouldn't it be tremendous to see I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire (as an example) go at it three times this spring, maybe again in the summer at the Travers in Saratoga and Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont, and culminate it with an epic Breeders' Cup Classic in the fall? It is nice to think about.

For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of sundaysilence.net

Super Six Derby Pix

The first of two strong weekends of Kentucky Derby prep races is now in the books and quite a bit occurred. First, the bad news about The Pamplemousse. He is going to miss six months with an tendon injury. It's a shame we didn't get to see him go against Pioneerof The Nile in the Santa Anita Derby, it could have been a redux of Silver Charm and Free House from a dozen years ago. Of course, Pioneerof The Nile is part of the good news from the weekend with his win in the Derby to make him one of the favorites for four weeks from now.

How about the race that I Want Revenge turned in The Wood Memorial? He completely missed the break, got caught in heavy traffic, had to shift outside in the stretch and STILL won by open daylight. He didn't even need to win the race, really, to get in, but sometimes you just cannot deny the heart of a champion. Also, Musket Man's win in the Illinois Derby over the more highly regarded Giant Oak was worthy of note as well. So, without further ado, here are this week's Super Six Derby Pix:

#1 Quality Road- His wins in the Fountain Of Youth and Florida Derby at Gulfstream this season have been impressive. The Fountain Of Youth was a front-running score and the Florida Derby showed his guts by turning away the solid Dunkirk after he made a massive move on the turn. In years past, the Florida Derby winner has always been a strong play in the Kentucky Derby (ex. Monarchos, Barbaro).

#2 Friesan Fire-The Louisiana Derby winner might have a style more suited to winning the Kentucky Derby, laying just of the pace, instead of contesting the pace and getting caught up in a speed war. The only qualm I have is the seven-week layoff between the Fair Grounds win and the Derby at Churchill Downs. Needles in 1956 went six weeks between his last race and his Derby win and trainer Larry Jones has had the runners-up in the last two Kentucky Derbies, so he obviously knows what he is doing.

#3 I Want Revenge- How much did that supreme effort in the Wood Memorial take out of him? It would be a shame if he spent his reserve winning what shapes up to be a unnecessary race for his Churchill chances. Keep in mind that Bellamy Road established himself as the Derby favorite with a devastating 19-length win in the Wood only to flop on the first Saturday in May, which, of course, resulted in the 2nd greatest longshot ever winning the race (Giacomo at 50-1).

#4 Regal Ransom- You know, one of these years, Godolphin is going to get it right and claim the prize they covet the most in the Kentucky Derby. This year, they have two bona fide contenders with this one and Desert Party. Regal Ransom held off his stablemate to win the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup day at Nad Al Sheba. I honestly think one of the two will be there at the end and since Regal Ransom has topped Desert Party twice, he gets the nod.

#5 Musket Man- OK, he might be the livest longshot on the board in four weeks, but he still deserves a mention now. He has two wins around two turns in his last two starts (Tampa Bay Derby and Illinois Derby). The Sire, Yonaguska, is probably the biggest argument against since he was a seven-furlong specialist, but if all the horse does is win, he makes it tough to count him out. Don't forget War Emblem won the Illinois Derby in 2002 and took the Roses later on.

#6 Old Fashioned- Lost of a lot of the luster on his star with the mystifying loss in the Rebel at Oaklawn Park to Win Willy. They will match up again this Saturday in the Arkansas Derby, which will also feature Louisiana Derby runner-up, Papa Clem. He was the most highly regarded entering the season, but needs to put up or shut up now.

Elsewhere, I would be remiss if I didn't mention that this past weekend was opening weekend at Canada's jewel, Woodbine. That means the return to the microphone of Dan Loiselle, one of the best race callers in North America and one certainly great guy. Good luck to Dan and everyone in the Great White North this season. Tune in again tomorrow for a look at a fading element from the racing scene these days. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

$400,000 Aqueduct Pick Four

Saturday is a big day for preps for the Kentucky Derby with The Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, The Santa Anita Derby at (guess where?) Santa Anita, and The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. NYRA has put together an all-graded stakes Pick Four with a $400,000 guarantee in conjunction with the Wood and what follows are selections for the races and a Pick Four Play for the wager based on a $1 bet. Good luck to you all.

The Grade 3 BayShore- I like #6 Not For Silver over #10 Taqarub in this spot. They have returned to the main track at Aqueduct after the winter break and it has favored the speed thus far. However, there is a lot of speed in here and #6 might sit well just off the hot pace.

The Grade 3 Excelsior- #1 Barrier Reef went three for three over the inner track at Aqueduct with Ramon Dominguez up and I see no reason his strong performances should stop now. Cozzene is on the Sire side and he was a personal favorite.

The Grade 1 Wood Memorial- This could be a two-horse epic between #2 I Want Revenge and #5 Imperial Council. I Want Revenge took the Gotham after pacesetter Mr. Fantasy faded from view. Imperial Council, in the same race, was way off the pace and rallied to get 2nd late. Just a hunchy-hunch, but I think Imperial Council will prevail here.

The Grade 1 Carter- #3 True Quality is going to the lead here and might not give it up. The only horse that might get by him is #4 Fabulous Strike, who split the last two graded duels with #3. A longshot to possibly get behind is #6 Understatement at 15-1.

PICK FOUR PLAY- 4-6-7-10 WITH 1 WITH 2-5 WITH 1-3-4-6
TOTAL- $32

Remember, this blog is only offering suggestions and in no way assumes responsibility for any wagers made in conjunction with these selections. I am only here to try to help and make the "Sport Of Kings" more fun for everyone. Tune in again on Monday when "They Are Off" offers the Super Six Derby Contenders after the big prep weekend. For right now, I am Gone.... Goodbye!

Breeders' Cup Saturday

The selections for the nine races at the Breeders' Cup World Championships at Santa Anita on Sautrday are as follows:

Marathon: WIN- Sixties Icon, PLACE- Cedar Mountain, SHOW- Delightful Kiss

Turf Sprint: WIN- Heros Reward, PLACE- Get Funky, SHOW- Rouse The Cat

Dirt Mile: WIN- Well Armed, PLACE- Albertus Maximus, SHOW- Surf Cat

Mile: WIN- Thorn Song, PLACE- Goldikova, SHOW- Whatsthescript

Juvenile: WIN- Street Hero, PLACE- Square Eddie, SHOW- Midshipman

Juvenile Turf: WIN- Bittel Road, PLACE- Westphalia, SHOW- Grand Adventure

Sprint: WIN- Cost Of Freedom, PLACE- Street Boss, SHOW- Black Seventeen

Turf: WIN- Red Rocks, PLACE- Conduit, SHOW- Out Of Control

Classic: WIN- Curlin, PLACE- Go Between, SHOW- Champs Elysses

Good luck to you all.

Friday Breeders' Cup Thoughts

The 25th edition of the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships takes place starting Friday at Santa Anita in Southern California. It will be the first Cup on synthetic racing surface, and the big wonder many have is how will that affect the racing? It certainly is something to consider when looking at the races. Here are the five Friday (Ladies' Day) races:

BC Filly and Mare Sprint:
WIN- Zaftig PLACE- Indian Blessing SHOW- Dearest Trickski

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf
WIN- Beyond Our Reach PLACE- C Karma SHOW- Laragh

BC Juvenile Fillies
WIN- Stardom Bound PLACE- Doremifasollatido SHOW- Palacio De Amor

BC Filly and Mare Turf
WIN- Forever Together PLACE- Wait A While SHOW- Folk Opera

BC Ladies' Classic
WIN- Zenyatta PLACE- Ginger Punch SHOW- Hystericalady

Good luck to you all.

Luke Kruytbosch

Churchill Downs and Turf Paradise announcer Luke Kruytbosch passed away on Monday. Luke was my mentor as an announcer and, even more importantly, a dear friend of mine. I usually tried to contact him once a month or so and always made sure I stopped in to see him whenever I went home to Phoenix. This spring I had the honor of substituting for him at Turf for three weeks while he made his way to Churchill Downs to call his 10th Kentucky Derby. He was a masterful race caller and there is not one person in horse racing that could speak ill of Luke. His loss will be felt throughout the industry and since I pretty much owe him my entire announcing career, his loss has especially hit me hard. I will miss you, my friend.

The 69th Hollywood Gold Cup

Tiago seems to be a likely winner in this race, now that the best horse on the West Coast, Heatseeker, scratched out. Tiago has a win and a second in his last two graded efforts, the Oaklawn Handicap and the Californian Stakes over this Hollywood oval. Tiago has a win and second in two lifetime starts at Hollywood Park. I really like the chances of Big Booster to be a possible longshot to like here. He is 15-1 on the DRF morning line and has won his last two AND ran 3rd in this race last year behind Lava Man and A.P. Xcellent. Student Council won the Pimlico Special last time out after not liking the turf at my home track, Sam Houston Race Park, in the Grade 3 Connally Turf. Shaun Bridgmohan rode him at Pimlico and gets the call again here. To wrap the top four, I will go with another price pick in Mast Track, who adds blinkers and goes turf-to-dirt. By the way, he is also trained by Bobby Frankel. Even with Heatseeker out, this is a very interesting race, so here's wishing the best of luck to you all.

Hollywood Gold Cup Top 4 Selections- Tiago, Big Booster, Student Council, Mast Track

The 140th Belmont Stakes

Well, Casino Drive has been scratched out of the Belmont Stakes and many feel that this has taken the most logical threat to the Triple Crown-trying Big Brown. Forget that, Big Brown was not going to get beat even if he spotted Casino Drive a sixteenth of a mile. We are going to be witnesses to history today as Big Brown will become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978 and Affirmed. Who can be close to him? Possibly, Denis Of Cork, who ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and might like having an extra quarter-mile to get to the leader. Icabad Crane ran 3rd in the Preakness at Pimlico and might improve enough to be a part of the mix here. Finally, I expect Tale Of Ekati to be part of the pace battle here and hold on for a piece of the Superfecta in the Belmont Stakes today. Here's wishing the best of luck to you all.

Belmont Stakes Selections: Big Brown, Denis Of Cork, Icabad Crane, Tale Of Ekati

The 134th Kentucky Derby

First off, I need to apologize to anyone who has been waiting for updates on this page, but I have been in Arizona calling the races at Turf Paradise for the last three weeks and have not had a chance to update the site. Now, on to the business at hand, the Run For The Roses. For me, there are two horses that stand head and shoulders above the rest after handicapping the race. Those two are Court Vision and Gayego. It should be easy enough to just bet an exacta with those two and be done with it, but we have to pick a winner, don't we? I will go with Court Vision for several reasons. First, Court Vision has post #4 and Gayego has post #19. No horse has ever won the Derby from post #19. Second, Court Vision is adding blinkers and I always like to see an equipment change that can help the horse's performance like that. Finally, Court Vision is trained by Bill Mott and he seems overdue to win the Derby, doesn't he? For third, I will put Cowboy Cal. I think he is the most versatile horse in the race, having shown an appreciation for turf, dirt, and synthetic so far. I think he can race on green cheese and make a go of it. To round out the Superfecta, I will go with Cool Coal Man. He threw in a clunker last out, but he held on gamely to win the Fountain Of Youth in a performance that seems to be forgotten already. Where you may ask are the favorites? Well, Big Brown is out in the parking lot and Colonel John might be a one-trick pony (pardon the pun) having only raced on synthetic. Pyro is the only one I can even think of using, but his two races in Louisiana came after massive trouble during both trips and the Blue Grass was a total disaster. So, put Pyro underneath and this way, you might have a reasonable favorite in your box wagers. Here's wishing the best of luck to you all.

134th Kentucky Derby Picks- Court Vision, Gayego, Cowboy Cal, Cool Coal Man, Pyro

The $50,000 Jersey Village Stakes

It is been John Locke in front this meeting at Sam Houston Race Park and he has a tough entry in the Saturday Stakes race with Festive Rain and Hollye Lynne. Festive Rain has won two of her last three on the grass and Hollye Lynne was a winner on the dirt on Texas Champions Day. The best turf Tomlinson figure in the field belongs to Wild Encounter. All seven of her wins have come on the turf. Boundus is coming back from a bit of a layoff tonight. She has been off since December 1 and has Mr. Prospector on the Sire side of the lineage. How about a longshot to like in Party Of One? She is 10-1 on the morning line, posted a bullet workout on February 2, and has 1992 BC Classic winner, A.P. Indy, on the Sire side. By the way, Pyro comes back to the Derby Trail on Saturday at the Fair Grounds and will be tough to top.

The MAXXAM Gold Cup

There are two big Stakes races on Saturday night at Sam Houston Race Park. The $100,000 MAXXAM Gold Cup has a field of six (five betting interests) and my top pick in the feature is Tap Dancing Mauk. The Dale Romans trainee has been off since winning the Zia Park Distance Challenge at the MAXXAM distance of 1 1/8 Miles. The Sire is 1996 Preakness winner, Louis Quatorze. The Asmussen entry of Reporting For Duty and Red Rock Creek will be next. Reporting For Duty faced some of the top three-year-olds in the land last year and acquitted himself quite well. Red Rock Creek has a shot, but is 0 for 7 over the Houston main track. The most intriguing horse in the field is Honest Man, who has won three straight and posted a 99 Beyer figure in his last score at Fair Grounds.
The other Stakes race on the program is the $50,000 Sam Houston Distaff. I will side with the entry of Miss Peachtree and Buy The Barrel. Miss Peachtree gets Martin Escobar aboard and Buy The Barrel is trained by Hard Spun's conditioner, Larry Jones. Dallas Keen will send Lemony Cricket to the post in the Distaff after she hit the board in her last five efforts. Bob McNair's Stonerside Stable is represented by Bold Angel, who has two lifetime wins, both coming at Sam Houston Race Park. Here's wishing the best of luck to you all.

Saturday the 19th

Sam Houston tonight might present a couple of nice opportunites featuring former Stakes winners at the Houston track. Banquo is a former Asmussen trainee that scored a win last time out as part of the New Year's Eve card here. He runs in the 6th race. Later on the card in the 8th race is Snuck By. It is hard to believe (for me) that he has not won yet this meeting. I think tonight might be the night for it, though. Might be worth a look at the 7th to see if you can hook a Pick Three with these races tonight. I myself selected Chivas Royal in the 7th, but maybe you can ferret out a better price for that leg of the action. Also tonight, we have guest announcer James Witherite-Rieg calling two races (and three on Sunday) tonight. He does a fine job as the voice of Harrah's Chester Downs in Pennsylvania and handled a tough night last night with hard rain falling with aplomb. Check it out tonight at Sam Houston Race Park.

Sam Houston Saturday Night

Tonight at SHRP features an interesting turf race for the eighth race on the menu. A winner from Texas Champions Day returns to action (Jenz Benz, winner of the San Jacinto) and she faces a tough bunch of runners in this spot. Quincy Hamilton rides Baby Doll Blues, who won over the Houston turf last time out. A longshot to like could be the Danny Pish trainee, Senora Tormenta, who is a nice 8-1 on the morning line. Exclusive Hopper comes to Houston from South Florida, where she was running at Calder Race Course. The pick here will be Jenz Benz, who is coupled in a betting entry with Wild Encounter, also a former Stakes winner at SHRP. Her turn of foot on TCD was an impressive one and if she duplicates that, she should score again.

Happy Holidays

Wanted to be sure to tell everyone to have a happy holiday season this week and also pass along a possible price horse to like at Sam Houston Race Park to maybe spice up the gift funds for you last-minute shoppers. In the 8th race on Saturday night, keep an eye out for #6 Indybuster at 8-1. His last two workouts have been bullet efforts.

Texas Champions Day

Tonight is one of this biggest days on the Sam Houston Race Park calendar, Texas Champions Day. This is a highlight day for Texas-bred Thoroughbreds and many of the year-end state championships will be decided tonight. Here are a few spot plays to look for tonight: Race 3 #5 Ms Classic Seneca 8-1, undefeated after 2 tries; Race 8 #2 Sandburr 3-1, defending champion in the Star Of Texas; Race 9 #7 Boundus 6-1, coming off a win in San Antonio on November 15. It promises to be a fun and exciting night of horse racing in the Bayou City. Here's wishing the best of luck to you all.

They Are Off

A new season begins tonight at Sam Houston Race Park with a ten-race program and a concert following live racing from Miranda Lambert. The card does not seem to be offering to many longshot options for you price players, but there is one I like in the finale. Strawberry Season might be able to score in a competitive field at a morning-line of 10-1. Certainly, one to look for tonight at a value.

I will, of course, be returning during the course of the season with other spot plays and notes from Sam Houston Race Park. Here's wishing the best of luck to you all.

Hollywood Gold Cup

The 68th running of the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup will take place on Saturday and I think that Lava Man is in line for a third straight win in this race to tie the old mark of Native Diver. It still remains to be seen, however, how he is shape-wise after the ill-fated trip to Dubai. A.P. Arrow won the Grade 3 Skip Away at Gulfstream two back and ran 3rd on Belmont Day. He is regally bred and gets David Flores aboard today. Molengao is a Brazilian-bred that won as the betting choice last time out in the Grade 2 Mervyn Leroy over the Hollywood oval on May 5. Russell Baze rides the Northern California invader My Creed and he has won two of the last three. It might not be the best edition of the Hollywood Gold Cup ever, but if Lava Man comes through, it could be a history-making one.

Hollywood Gold Cup Selections- Lava Man, A.P. Arrow, Molengao, My Creed

The 139th Belmont Stakes

Preakness winner Curlin will be odds-on to follow in the footsteps of Point Given and Afleet Alex and win the Preakness and the Belmont after failing in the Kentucky Derby. I believe the support is well-warranted. The Steve Asmussen trainee is my pick to wrap up the Triple Crown season with his second win in the series and fifth lifetime win in six career starts. Tiago was a dismissed horse in this blog during the Kentucky Derby, but I think he could be the best of the rest in this field of seven and might actually be a decent value play. Hard Spun has done much better than I thought he would in the first two Triple Crown races and he (along with Slew's Tizzy) should be setting the pace in the Belmont. I'll slot him third. The Nick Zito-trained CP West ran 4th in the Preakness and I'll put him in the same spot in the Belmont. One note about the filly in the field, Rags To Riches. She is a splendid filly that convincingly won the Kentucky Oaks five weeks ago. However, no filly has won the Belmont since 1905 and her price will be way too short for me to consider betting her bucking 102 years of history.

Selections for the 139th Belmont Stakes- Curlin, Tiago, Hard Spun, CP West

The Californian Stakes

Hollywood Park is putting up a $300,000 guaranteed Pick 4 on their last four races on Saturday afternoon and the keynote race of the sequence is the Grade 2 $250,000 Californian Stakes. There are some famous names in this race, but I will go with the slightly unheralded Boboman as my winner. He adds blinkers today and posted a recent bullet workout over the Hollywood surface on May 30. Alex Solis gets the ride for trainer Richard Mandella. A.P. Xcellent is my second choice. The A.P. Indy offspring scored a win at Hollywood on April 28 and, in fact, all three of his wins have come at Hollywood Park. I may be going off the beaten path with my third choice, but I will consider Saint Stephen in this spot. Trainer Christophe Clement is more adept with turf runners, but this horse deserves a look with some decent speed figures on the record. I will finally put in a famous name in this field with Buzzards Bay in fourth. He won the 2005 Santa Anita Derby and the 2006 Oaklawn Handicap, so he has some healthy experience. He ran 3rd at Hollywood in the Grade 2 Mervyn Leroy last time out.

Californian Stakes Selections- Boboman, A.P. Xcellent, Saint Stephen, Buzzards Bay

The 132nd Preakness

I see a huge day for Todd Pletcher Saturday. I think either of his runners in the Preakness, Circular Quay and King Of The Roxy, can win the Black-Eyed Susans. I will pick King Of The Roxy just because I think he will be closer to the pace than Circular Quay and might get first run at the pacesetters. The Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense, will be my second choice. He got a garden run at Churchill Downs and might again with the smaller field here. He might also just be a horse for the Churchill Downs course and could struggle on the Pimlico dirt. Circular Quay will be my third pick. The Derby was actually the prep race he needed before the Derby (8-week layoff, please!!). I think he will be ready for a huge effort today. The Federico Tesio winner, Xchanger, is my fourth selection. He has a win over the Pimlico track and might be a big price in the Preakness.

132nd Preakness Selections- King Of The Roxy, Street Sense, Circular Quay, Xchanger

The 133rd Kentucky Derby

Nobiz Like Shobiz is my top pick in Saturday's Kentucky Derby. He won the Wood Memorial impressively and the only two races he has NOT won were races in which he encountered trouble. That might happen in a 20-horse race on Saturday, but I still think he is the best one in the field. Any Given Saturday is one of FIVE Todd Pletcher trainees in the field and he could be the best of the bunch. He has never finished out of the top three in any of his six starts. Street Sense won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year and no winner of that race has ever won the Derby the following spring. He is certainly a candidate to do it, but he has only two preps this year. Of all the longshots, I think the most attractive are Dominican and Sam P. It would not surprise me if either wore the roses on the big day. Here is what I think the complete order of finish will be:

1) Nobiz Like Shobiz; 2) Any Given Saturday; 3) Street Sense; 4) Dominican; 5) Sam P.; 6) Scat Daddy; 7) Hard Spun; 8) Curlin; 9) Circular Quay; 10) Great Hunter; 11) Teufelsberg; 12) Sedgefield; 13) Liquidity; 14) Zanjero; 15) Stormello; 16) Cowtown Cat; 17) Bwana Bull; 18) Tiago; 19) Imawildandcrazyguy; 20) Storm In May