tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-259969782024-02-22T01:00:39.926-08:00They Are OffOPINIONS AND SELECTIONS FROM THE WORLD OF HORSE RACINGMichael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.comBlogger562125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-6113545259403499432014-10-30T21:44:00.000-07:002014-10-30T21:44:13.702-07:002014 Breeders' Cup- Saturday's RacesThere are nine Breeders' Cup races that will be contested at The Great Race Place, Santa Anita, on Saturday afternoon. The Championship races will start with the $2,000,000 Juvenile Fillies and the day will culminate in with the $5,000,000 Classic. In some of these races, I prefer one horse and in some of the others, I will examine two horses. The following is my analysis of those nine races: <br />
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<u><strong>Juvenile Fillies</strong></u>- I am going to go with <strong>#2-Angela Renee</strong>. Todd Pletcher is the trainer and John Velazquez has the riding assignment. Her Sire is 2006 Preakness winner, Bernardini, and she posted a field-best 87 Beyer Speed Figure in her last race, the Grade 1 Chandelier, on September 27. Angela Renee is 3-1 on the morning line.<br />
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<strong><u>Filly & Mare Turf-</u></strong> There is a distinct possibility of a repeat in here with <strong>#3-Dank</strong>. She was the winner in 2013 as the betting favorite. The major difference between last year and this year is that in 2013, she had previously come over from Europe and scored a Grade 1 win in the Beverly D at Arlington Park. Dank is 5-2 on the morning line.<br />
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<strong><u>Filly & Mare Sprint-</u></strong> Irad Ortiz Jr. has had an exceptional 2014 season, winning 20% of his more than 1,200 races. Why can't he carry that success over to the big stage here with <strong>#1-Sweet Reason</strong>? She won the Grade 1 Test at this extended seven furlong distance back in early August. This will be her 2nd start since the most recent layoff. Her Sire is 2007 Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense. Sweet Reason is 9-2 on the morning line.<br />
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<strong><u>Turf Sprint-</u></strong> The accepted thought process when it comes to these races down the hill at Santa Anita is that the horse destined to win is a horse that has had past success at the distance on the track. I will favor <strong>#5-Ambitious Brew</strong>, who has won 3 of 4 lifetime at 6 1/2 furlongs on the grass at Santa Anita. Mike Smith will ride here. This is his second race off the layoff. In the prior effort, he was nailed on the wire in the Grade 3 Eddie D by Home Run Kitten, who is also in this race. I expect him to turn the tables here. Ambitious Brew is 12-1 on the morning line.<br />
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<strong><u>Juvenile-</u></strong> Bob Baffert was supposed to have the hot favorite in here with American Pharoah. Unfortunately, he was scratched earlier this week and will not race. However, this does not deter me from thinking that Baffert still has the winner in here with <strong>#11-One Lucky Dane</strong>. He won his maiden-breaking race over the Santa Anita track on October 4 going one mile by a widening margin of 9 1/2 lengths. A repeat of that effort could give Baffert another score in this race. One Lucky Dane is 10-1 on the morning line.<br />
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<strong><u>Turf-</u></strong> This is where the fun starts for everyone interested in trying to score on the 50-cent Pick Four with the $3,000,000 pool. <strong>#7-Flintshire</strong> will be the selection in here off the 2nd place finish in the Group 1 Arc de Triomphe behind two-time winner, Treve. While Flintshire has not won in 2013, he has been on the cusp of victory on numerous occasions. I am also a bit fond of <strong>#11-Chicquita</strong>. Normally, I don't love fillies facing the males, but this one could be a winner here with the ever-popular connections of trainer Aidan O'Brien and jockey Frankie Dettori, both of whom have had plenty of success in this race in the past. Flintshire is 7-2 on the morning line and Chicquita is 8-1 on the morning line.<br />
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<strong><u>Sprint-</u></strong> <strong>#8 Palace</strong> is my Best Bet of the entire Breeders' Cup program. He really didn't have the best time of it in the Grade 1 Vosburgh at Belmont, finishing 3rd after a weaving trip. His previous two efforts at Saratoga were far more confidence-inducing. He ran away from the field in the seven-furlong Forego and he posted a 107 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Grade 1 Vanderbilt. He has never missed the money in 12 starts at this distance and he posted a fine workout over the track on October 27. Palace is 6-1 on the morning line.<br />
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<strong><u>Mile-</u></strong> This is the one Breeders' Cup race on Saturday where I really think you can take a legitimate shot at a longshot. Toronado is going to be a big favorite, but I remember being at a Breeders' Cup where Rock Of Gibraltar was a big favorite and he went down to defeat to Domedriver. So, I am going to swing for the fences with <strong>#11-Sayaad</strong>. Julien Leparoux will ride. This horse finished a close 3rd behind Wise Dan in the G1 Shadwell at Keeneland. He also tossed a bullet workout on the board on October 25 at Belmont, covering a half-mile in 48 seconds flat. This is the 2nd Street Sense offspring I am selecting today. Sayaad is 30-1 on the morning line.<br />
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<strong><u>Classic-</u></strong> There is speed in this race to spare with Moreno and Bayern both present. It is also entirely possible that Shared Belief and Cigar Street will be close to what promises to be a fast pace. So, I am going to look at another longshot in here to come rolling late, a la Drosselmeyer a few years ago. <strong>#5 V.E. Day</strong> is coming into this race under the radar, much like he did in he Grade 1 Travers he won this summer at Saratoga. His follow-up effort in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup was a toss after he was interfered with. I also think <strong>#2-Cigar Street</strong> could remain a factor after sitting near the pace. By the way, yes, he is another Street Sense offspring. V.E. Day is 20-1 on the morning line and Cigar Street is 12-1 on the morning line.<br />
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I am going to provide a suggested 50-cent Pick Four play for those last four races as part of this post as well. <br />
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<strong>50-CENT PICK FOUR PLAY (Races 9-12): 1-7-11-12 with 4-8 with 5-6-11 with 2-5-6-7-11</strong><br />
<strong>TOTAL BET- $60</strong><br />
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Good luck to everyone on both days of the 2014 Breeders' Cup. Remember, you can follow me on Twitter <strong><u>@taoMC16</u></strong> for regular selections for racing at Turf Paradise and other random thoughts on things both racing and non-racing related. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-2474073314330606972014-09-13T09:59:00.003-07:002014-09-13T09:59:57.348-07:00The 18th Woodbine MileThe 18th running of the $1,000,000 Ricoh Woodbine Mile takes place tomorrow at Woodbine in Canada with a strong field of eleven. The 5-2 morning-line favorite is <strong>#5 Kaigun</strong>, who is 2 for 2 on the grass at Woodbine. This race might very well be a preview of sorts for the Breeders' Cup Mile coming up at Santa Anita on November 1. Here is the analysis:<br />
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The top pick in the Woodbine Mile will be <strong>#9 Jack Milton</strong>, who is making the second start off the most recent layoff after running third in the Grade 2 Fourstardave at Saratoga on August 9. The Todd Pletcher trainee's last win came back in May at Belmont in the Grade 3 Poker. Javier Castellano, who might be the best turf rider in North America, gets the call here as he did in those aforementioned New York races. The Sire is War Front and that is always a good thing when it comes to turf racing. His last work on September 8 was a strong four furlongs on the turf in 49 3/5 seconds. <br />
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<strong>#8 Bobby's Kitten</strong> is 15-1 on the morning-line and might actually present the best value in this bunch. The Sire (if you couldn't tell) is Kitten's Joy, fitting since the horse is also owned by the Ramseys. The last win for this colt came in the ungraded Pennsylvania Mile at Penn National on May 31. His last three workouts have all been bullets at the five furlongs distance. He ran 2nd in his most recent race in the Grade 2 Hall Of Fame at Saratoga after leading throughout much of the race. That 15-1 morning line seems especially stunning since this horse has been the betting favorite in eight of his nine lifetime starts.<br />
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<strong>#5 Kaigun</strong> appears to be an excellent match to the Woodbine turf course. He is the 5-2 morning-line choice here and won the Grade 2 Play The King Stakes last time out on August 10. Patrick Husbands was aboard for that win and gets the call here again. The four previous races were all with Grade 1 company, although two seconds were the best he could muster. Again, the lineage is strong for turf racing. The Sire is Northern Afleet and Kris S. is present on the Dam side. Trainer Mark Casse is winning at a 20% rate during the current Woodbine season. <br />
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John Velazquez will ride <strong>#4 Silver Freak</strong>, who comes in at 20-1 on the morning-line. This horse has never faced anything near the caliber of horses he gets in here. His last four races have been of the Optional Claiming/Allowance variety. Granted, he won two of those and makes the second start off the most recent break here. His last win featured the best Beyer Speed Figure of his career with a 95.<br />
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<strong>They Are Off Top Four Selections: Jack Milton, Bobby's Kitten, Kaigun, Silver Freak</strong><br />
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Remember, you can follow me on Twitter @taoMC16. Good luck on all of your wagers this weekend. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-30592930811268047152014-08-22T05:51:00.000-07:002014-08-22T07:31:01.782-07:00The 145th Travers StakesThe Mid-Summer Derby returns to Saratoga on Saturday for the 145th renewal of the Travers Stakes. The field of ten has some stout contestants in it with the winner of the Haskell Invitational, Bayern, listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite. However, Belmont Stakes winner, Tonalist, and Jim Dandy winner, Wicked Strong, are also strong contenders at The Spa tomorrow. Here is the analysis:<br />
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The top pick here will be <strong>#7 Wicked Strong</strong>, who scored in the traditional Saratoga prep for the Travers, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. His previous win before that had been in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. However, between those two wins came a pair of fourths in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes. The Derby was the better of those two since the colt broke from the far outside post position and dealt with a relatively wide trip throughout. He did dead heat with California Chrome for fourth in the Belmont, but his come-from-behind style is usually not the way to win that race. There will be clear speed in here from Bayern and possibly more from Tonalist and Mr. Speaker. Rajiv Maragh has the ride for trainer Jimmy Jerkens.<br />
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<strong>#2 Bayern</strong> was an impressive runaway winner of the Haskell at Monmouth with Martin Garcia aboard. The time before that he also scored in the 7-furlong Woody Stephens at Belmont. The only time this horse missed the money came in the Preakness Stakes at 1 3/16 miles. This might create questions about his distance limitations, since all the other strong performances came either at the 7-furlong distance or at one mile, with the definite exception of the Haskell win. If there is no pressure to what ought to be his early lead, Garcia might be able to dictate the pace with Bayern and nurse him along for the full ten furlongs. But, if Tonalist or Mr. Speaker go with Bayern, that could seriously compromise his chances<br />
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<strong>#8 Kid Cruz</strong> could be the longshot to like in the Travers at 12-1 with the red-hot rider, Irad Ortiz Jr., at the controls. He finished third behind Wicked Strong and Tonalist in the Jim Dandy and had won the prior two starts at Belmont, the Grade 3 Dwyer and the Easy Goer. I expect the Linda Rice trainee to come running late and be a factor at the finish.<br />
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I will wrap the top four selections with <strong>#6 Tonalist</strong>. The Belmont winner was the runner-up to Wicked Strong in the Jim Dandy and didn't appear capable of catching that horse on that day. His performance in the Test Of Champions was excellent, having worn down Commissioner in the final strides. Joel Rosario will ride for trainer Christophe Clement here.<br />
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<strong>They Are Off Top Four Selections: Wicked Strong, Bayern, Kid Cruz, Tonalist</strong><br />
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Remember, you can follow me on Twitter @taoMC16 and I would like to wish everyone well on their Travers Day wagers at Saratoga. There will be plenty of excellent racing at The Spa on Saturday. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-50168611411087936442014-08-15T12:41:00.000-07:002014-08-15T12:41:31.740-07:00The 32nd Arlington MillionThe 32nd running of the Grade 1 Arlington Million takes place on Saturday at Arlington Park in Chicago. There is a very compact field of seven horses in the race, including the winner of the 2013 edition of the Million and the winner of the 2013 Breeders' Cup Turf. Let's take a look at the analysis:<br />
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My top selection in the Arlington Million will be an 8-1 shot, <strong>#7 Side Glance</strong>. This selection is based mainly on the way I see the pace setting up in the race. Side Glance appears to be able to go right to the lead and go all the way in front. Based on his most recent effort in the Grade 1 United Nations at Monmouth Park, Side Glance should be in front here with no other pace pressure apparent. This should allow jockey Jamie Spencer to dictate how fast this gelding will go through the early stages. I also am taking into account the fact that the U.N. was a furlong farther than the Million is. Side Glance set the early pace at Monmouth and still finished 3rd after digging in late. He was part of the result last year in the Million, placed 2nd after the DQ of The Apache.<br />
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<strong>#6 Real Solution</strong> will be my second choice here. He actually crossed the finish line first for the first time in some time last out at Belmont in the Grade 1 Manhattan on Belmont Stakes Day. He sat in mid-pack most of the way around the racetrack and uncoiled a decisive run through the stretch under his jockey, Javier Castellano, who might very well be the best turf rider on this continent right now. In the Man O'War two starts back, he essentially ran the same race that won the Manhattan, but just couldn't get past Imagining in the stretch. Real Solution is attempting to become the first horse in the history of the Million to win the race in back-to-back years (John Henry did win the race twice in 1981 and 1984). Another major factor for Real Solution is the lineage with Kitten's Joy as the Sire and Pulpit on the Dam side, both excellent for turf pedigree.<br />
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<strong>#3 Magician</strong> has won only once in five starts since scoring in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf at Santa Anita last fall. That victory came in the Group 3 High Chaparral Mooresbridge Stakes at The Curragh in early May. While he did follow that up with back-to-back seconds, he was never really a threat in the Group 1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, finishing sixth. It makes one wonder how this horse will be coming into the Million, but it is never a smart move to dismiss anything that the O'Brien connections put out there.<br />
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<strong>#4 Finnegans Wake</strong> could be a juicy value in here at 12-1 on the morning line. He did win at the distance over the Arlington turf course last time out on July 12 in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap. He also posted a bullet 5F workout on August 10 at Churchill Downs, covering the distance in 1:00.2. Ryan Moore has the ride for trainer Dale Romans, who won the Million two years ago with Little Mike.<br />
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<strong>Arlington Million Top Four Selections: Side Glance, Real Solution, Magician, Finnegans Wake</strong><br />
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Keep in mind that you can follow me on Twitter: @taoMC16. Chamberlain's Choice each night at Vernon Downs in the summer and Turf Paradise each day in the winter is available there. The best of luck with all of your Arlington wagers this weekend. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-24308364131739551742014-07-05T12:08:00.000-07:002014-07-05T12:09:50.021-07:00The 155th Queen's PlateIn the 154 previous runnings of the Queen's Plate, which is essentially the Canadian equivalent of the Kentucky Derby here in the States, there have been many prominent champions. Northern Dancer in 1964, Dance Smartly in 1991, Awesome Again in 1997, and Wando in 2003 are just some of the great horses to have taken down the Plate. Which horse will join them in 2014 on that list of winners? The 8-5 morning-line favorite to do so is <strong>#6 We Miss Artie</strong>, who has already won the Plate Trial at Woodbine and finished 10th in the Kentucky Derby back in May. However, I am loathe to be selecting the favorite in a spot like this, especially with a wide-open field of fifteen, so here is the analysis of the 155th Queen's Plate.<br />
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The top choice in the Queen's Plate is <strong>#15 Ami's Holiday</strong>. While he drew outside, there will be plenty of time for him to establish a position that won't cause him to be caught five-wide throughout the race. Jockey Luis Contreras and trainer Josie Carroll teamed up to win the Queen's Plate in 2011 with Inglorious. This colt is exceedingly well-bred, with the Sire being Harlan's Holiday and Victory Gallop on the Dam side. The only issue is that he has not won a race since last October, when he scored in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine. He did go down to Keeneland in Kentucky to run fourth in his 2014 debut, the Grade 3 Lexington, and followed that up with a third in a $125K Stakes race at Woodbine last out on May 25. The last plus, I feel, is the apparent value at 10-1 on the morning line.<br />
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I will put the favorite, <strong>#6 We Miss Artie</strong>, in the second spot. Trainer Todd Pletcher has a Queen's Plate victory on his resume' with Archers Bay in 1998. This colt won the Plate Trial on June 15 and finished an even tenth in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Prior to that, he just managed to get up in time to win the Grade 3 Spiral at Turfway Park over Harry's Holiday. He did not continue on the Triple Crown trail to focus on returning to Canada to win this particular race. Javier Castellano rode this colt in the Derby and the Plate Trial. There is another major plus for this horse in the Queen's Plate: he is an undefeated 3 for 3 over synthetic surfaces. 8-5 is just too low a price for me to bet him on top.<br />
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<strong>#10 Matador</strong> is also entering the Queen's Plate off of a win in his last race at Woodbine in an Optional Claiming/Allowance race on May 28. That was his first win of 2014, but keep in mind that his previous 2014 races included four graded tries on the Kentucky Derby Trail. Julien Leparoux has the ride here, as he did for all of those American graded efforts. <br />
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The most likable longshot in this race just might be <strong>#2 Coltimus Prime</strong>, who was set at 20-1 on the morning-line and was a winner last time out on June 8. He is another that tried for success on the Road to the Roses, but the best result he got on that road was a fifth in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland.<br />
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<strong>155th Queen's Plate Top Four Selections: Ami's Holiday, We Miss Artie, Matador, Coltimus Prime</strong><br />
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I have a new Twitter handle, which is: <strong>@taoMC16</strong>, you can follow me there and get selections from Turf Paradise and Vernon Downs, in addition to other random thoughts and posts. The best of luck with all of your Woodbine wagers on Sunday. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-29071284344425053782014-06-08T07:57:00.001-07:002014-06-08T08:10:50.491-07:00No Crown Again<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Tonalist was the winner of the 146th Belmont Stakes on Sunday, getting past the game Commissioner in the final strides to win a photo in the "Test Of Champions". Medal Count ran third and there was dead-heat for fourth between Wicked Strong and Triple Crown hopeful, California Chrome. Tonalist, who won the Peter Pan Stakes over the same Belmont oval, ran the mile and a half in a time of 2:28.52. Jockey Joel Rosario won his first Belmont Stakes in the process, as did trainer Christophe Clement. <br />
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In the aftermath of the defeat, the co-owner of California Chrome, Steve Coburn, went off on a nationally-televised rant about how Tonalist and his connections took "the coward's way out" in skipping the first two legs of the Triple Crown and spoiling the party everyone had planned. While I believe that most of this was a bit of shock in losing and a bit of sour grapes, Coburn also missed the point that one of the horses that beat California Chrome, Medal Count, ran eighth in the Kentucky Derby and the horse that finished in a dead-heat with California Chrome, Wicked Strong, finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby. So, in essence, Coburn managed to go from good ol' country boy that charmed the nation while coming from nowhere to a sore loser whose basic argument was flawed from the beginning. I could only think of the comparison between this and the charm and class someone like Marylou Whitney displayed when Birdstone defeated Smarty Jones and spoiled his Triple Crown bid in 2004. Whitney actually APOLOGIZED in the Winner's Circle for winning the Belmont Stakes and taking away from the history of the day. <br />
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Tonalist was actually supposed to be on the Triple Crown trail with everyone else before an illness forced him out of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. What we saw yesterday was actually a testament to how good a trainer Christophe Clement is to get this horse back in the game so quickly and to get him back in the form that made him a winner. Commissioner, the runner-up, actually ran in some of the prep races for the Kentucky Derby (Fountain Of Youth, Sunland Derby, Arkansas Derby), so do those races not count? Yes, he was unable to earn the points to get a spot in the gate in Louisville, but the horse still put forth the effort to get to the Derby and couldn't do it. Under the way the Triple Crown is currently constituted, both of these horses had every right to be in the starting gate on Saturday and play spoiler to California Chrome. <br />
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Now, if you want to change the way the Triple Crown is currently constituted, that's a different story. For some reason, everyone in the racing industry seems to think that the races cannot be moved. Steven Crist of the Daily Racing Form (it's good to have him back, by the way) wrote last week that an argument that I like to put forth is irrelevant. In 1919, Sir Barton won the Preakness just four days after the Kentucky Derby and Gallant Fox won the Preakness FIRST eight days before the Derby in 1930. Let's also include the fact that Sir Barton ran in the Withers five days after the Preakness and before the Belmont. Crist referred to these as "oddities". I will disagree with him on this point because this is just how those races were scheduled in those days of yore. They weren't oddities in 1919 and 1930. I also will offer that the travel in the bygone era was a whole lot more difficult than it is 2014. <br />
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In the same piece, Crist quoted Penny Chenery, owner of Secretariat, saying "I'm just against that", and Patrice Wolfson, who raced Affirmed, saying "It would just be awful". I can see where these grand ladies of racing are coming from. They are connected with the horses that accomplished the feat in the five week span that the Triple Crown is currently run in. They are (and should be) protecting the memories of their super horses of the 1970s. The name of Affirmed always surfaces when someone wins the Kentucky Derby and Preakness like California Chrome did. If someone wins the Triple Crown now, it won't dim the memories of these great champions. What it will do is just further emphasize the greatness of those horses when we examine the gap of time between Triple Crown champions. <br />
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We are now almost in a similar time frame between the time of Gallant Fox to Secretariat and Secretariat to California Chrome. In the same way that what Secretariat did in the five week Triple Crown schedule of 1973 took nothing away from what Gallant Fox did over four weeks in 1930, it should take nothing away from a horse that won the Triple Crown today if the schedule were altered. What tends to be forgotten in these incessant arguments is that the breeding and racing of the Thoroughbred has changed quite a bit in the intervening forty year periods. In Gallant Fox's day, stamina was paramount. In Secretariat's day, stamina was important, but so was speed. Now, speed has become the all-important factor in breeding, far more so than stamina. <br />
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It might be unrealistic to expect any horse to run 1 1/4 miles, 1 3/16 miles, and 1 1/2 miles and do it successfully over the space of five weeks. It might also be unrealistic to expect a horse to win these three races when you constantly have "new shooters" dropping into these races after they pass earlier races in the series. There are tremendous obstacles to any horse trying to win the Triple Crown. One of those appears to be that the horse is not allowed to be at his best or properly rested for all the races. I, personally, don't think it takes away from any horse that would accomplish the Triple Crown if the timetable was changed. You are talking about three distances that are rarely, if ever, seen in North American dirt racing anymore. They are three remarkably testing distances for any three-year-old to run, never mind do it all over the space of five weeks. <br />
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In the final analysis, I don't see the Triple Crown series changing much, if at all, in the future. The traditionalists in the industry either wouldn't stand for it or discredit any horse that would manage to win all three races if they were more spread out. I think that to discredit any horse that would win all three races, regardless of when they were run, is to do a disservice to that horse. No one discredited Secretariat and Affirmed when they polished off the Triple Crown on a different schedule than Sir Barton and Gallant Fox. We are in a different era now and the sport (and its traditionalists) need to adapt to the changing times. Otherwise, in the other final analysis, I don't see anyone winning the Triple Crown anytime soon.<br />
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<em>Photo credit to media.knoxnews.com</em>Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-51665545382568591182014-06-04T18:19:00.001-07:002014-06-04T18:19:52.269-07:00The 146th Belmont StakesHistory is at hand on Saturday afternoon. California Chrome will be attempting to become the 12th Triple Crown winner in Thoroughbred racing history and the first since Affirmed in 1978. California Chrome has been a feel-good story from the lead up to the Kentucky Derby right through the current anxious moments of waiting for the Belmont Stakes. His connections, co-owners Steve Coburn and Perry Martin and trainer Art Sherman, have captivated the racing world with their honest attitudes throughout their magical journey. Let's also not forget that jockey Victor Espinoza has been down this road before, having led War Emblem into the Belmont with a chance to win the Triple Crown a dozen years ago. There will be ten competitors trying to deny California Chrome his moment on Saturday. Here is the analysis for the 146th running of the Belmont Stakes:<br />
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While I am certainly rooting for California Chrome to get the job done on Saturday, my less emotional, more logical side says it just isn't going to happen. We have been here before and been denied in cruel (Real Quiet and Smarty Jones) and unusual (Charismatic and Big Brown) fashion. Therefore, I will be looking for a longshot to win the Test Of Champions this weekend. I'll select <strong>#1 Medal Count</strong> as my winner in the Belmont Stakes. He is a robust 20-1 on the morning line and seems to fit the pattern of recent Belmont winners. Run up the track in the Derby, take the Preakness off and come back fresh in the Belmont. Medal Count, to me, was the most visually impressive horse in the post parade of the Kentucky Derby. In fact, he looked so good to me, I made sure I got some money down on him before they went in the gate. He had a tough time of it once the gates opened, however, getting shuffled back early and finishing eighth. Medal Count did post a recent bullet workout on May 31, covering six furlongs in 1:10.3 at Churchill Downs. Robby Albarado will have the ride in the Belmont Stakes. <br />
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<strong>#11 Tonalist</strong> scored a win in the Grade 2 Peter Pan over the Belmont racetrack when it was a sloppy surface on May 10. This will be the second start off the most recent layoff for this colt. The Clement trainee has never been worse than second in four lifetime starts. He has gotten so much respect off that Peter Pan win that his morning line is 8-1, third-best in the field. It also remains to be seen if Tonalist will be just another in a long line of horses that have won the Peter Pan, but come up empty in the Belmont. In addition, did he just really enjoy the sloppy track and offer up a freaky performance in the Peter Pan? Joel Rosario will be aboard.<br />
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I will next list the horse everyone will be watching on Saturday<strong>, #2 California Chrome</strong>. As I stated earlier, I am rooting for this horse to get the job done, where so many before him have failed. His Kentucky Derby and Preakness performances were excellent. However, the question here is how much did they take out of him entering this weekend? There were those in the aftermath of the Preakness that thought the horse looked spent and, on the other hand, there were those who felt that horse was geared down by Victor Espinoza once the issue was settled in Baltimore. He has won six in a row entering this race, all with Espinoza aboard, and a seventh straight would instantly link him into the fabric of the sport. I am rooting for him to win, I would love to see him win, I am just hard-pressed to see it happening<strong>.</strong><br />
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<strong> #4 Commanding Curve</strong> came running from the clouds to get second in the Kentucky Derby. He seemed to be the main beneficiary of the pacesetters backing up, as illustrated by the fact that he went from ninth in the stretch to second at the end. For everyone thinking the extra distance will aid his chances, keep in mind that closers rarely do big things at the Belmont. Usually, the ultimate winner is either first or second when they enter the never-ending Belmont stretch. This horse is still eligible to be entered into a non-winners of two race. Shaun Bridgmohan will ride.<br />
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<strong>TOP FOUR SELECTIONS: Medal Count, Tonalist, California Chrome, Commanding Curve</strong><br />
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Keep in mind you can follow me on Twitter: @They_Are_Off. I want to remind you that the entire program on Saturday at Belmont will be incredible, it is essentially a mini-Breeders' Cup day. NYRA has done a great thing by setting up such a tremendous day of racing in support of their marquee event. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!<br />
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Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-19663729066074127022014-05-16T08:19:00.001-07:002014-05-16T08:19:21.046-07:00The 139th Preakness StakesThe Triple Crown trail has now moved on to Old Hilltop in Baltimore, where the 139th edition of the Preakness Stakes will take place on Saturday. The race drew a field of ten, including California Chrome, who won the 140th Kentucky Derby two weeks ago in emphatic fashion. The other Derby runners to come back and challenge California Chrome again are General A Rod and Ride On Curlin. That's it!! There will be a filly in the field in Ria Antonia, who is trying to duplicate Rachel Alexandra's feat of winning the Preakness fifteen days after running in the Kentucky Oaks. Of course, Rachel won the Oaks by twenty lengths, while Ria Antonia ran sixth in Louisville. It might have been more intriguing had Untapable, the winner of the Oaks, come back to run in the Preakness, but that didn't happen. So, let's take a look at the 139th Preakness Stakes:<br />
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I think it will be incredibly difficult for anyone to defeat <b>#3 California Chrome</b> in the Preakness at Pimlico. He has shown so far to be the best of this three-year-old bunch in 2014 and there really doesn't appear to be much to challenge him on Saturday. He has won five in a row, and while he did sit the garden trip in the Derby, the superb speed figures still cannot be discounted, nor can the expert handling he has received from trainer Art Sherman and jockey Victor Espinoza. All reports from Pimlico say that Chrome is handling that track surface very well and that is usually one of the key factors in picking the winner of the Preakness. I expect California Chrome to win the Preakness on Saturday and roll into Belmont with a shot to become the 12th Triple Crown winner in Thoroughbred racing history.<br />
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Bob Baffert has had some success in the Preakness in the past and he has a strong bullet to fire on Saturday with <b>#5 Bayern.</b> Baffert is taking the blinkers off this colt for the Preakness. Bayern crossed the line first in the Derby Trial the week before the Derby at Churchill Downs, but was DQ'd and placed 2nd. Baffert elected to wait the three weeks to run here, as opposed to wheeling right back one week later in Louisville. Rosie Napravnik rode Bayern in the Trial and gets the call again in the Preakness. Bayern might still have a bit of greenness in him with only four starts under his belt. While there does appear to be speed aplenty in this edition of the Preakness, Bayern might be able to withstand the early pressure and still produce a strong finish.<br />
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Linda Rice claimed <b>#7 Kid Cruz</b> for $50,000 out of a maiden claiming race he won at Aqueduct in late November. Since that claim, Rice and Kid Cruz have teamed up for two Stakes victories and a second in an Allowance start. The win in the Federico Tesio makes Kid Cruz the only horse to have started at Pimlico, much less picked up a victory. The Sire is Lemon Drop Kid, who won the Belmont back in 1999, so you would be led to believe that the distance will not be an issue for this longshot. His price on the morning line here is 20-1, which I find somewhat generous. If there does appear to be a preponderance of speed in the Preakness, Kid Cruz might be one of those closers who could be a factor when the finish line approaches.<br />
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Finally, I think of those horses that did run in the Derby to come back and challenge Chrome once again, <b>#10 Ride On Curlin</b> might have the best opportunity to do some damage on Saturday. He finished 7th in the Derby and closed well to pass some horses in the stretch, despite being nine-wide. He posted a bullet workout already this weekend at Pimlico, going a half-mile in 49 3/5 on May 14th. Joel Rosario has recent successful experience on the Triple Crown trail with Orb last year.<br />
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<b>They Are Off Top 4 Selections: California Chrome, Bayern, Kid Cruz, Ride On Curlin</b><br />
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The best of luck to you all on your Preakness wagers on Saturday. They Are Off will return in three weeks with a look at The Belmont Stakes. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-60759918429819881992014-05-01T13:21:00.000-07:002014-05-01T13:21:08.405-07:00The 140th Kentucky DerbyFor the 140th consecutive year, the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby will be run at Churchill Downs in Louisville. While some of the more recent Derbies have featured wet or even downright nasty weather, that is not expected to be the case for this Saturday's renewal of the Run For The Roses. There has already been a scratch from the race, as Bob Baffert had to remove Hoppertunity from the lineup due to a bad foot. The 5-2 morning-line favorite has been established as California Chrome, winner of the Grade 2 San Felipe and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in his last two performances.<br />
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I have now taken a strong look at all of the contenders in this year's Kentucky Derby and I have come up with three candidates that I think can wear the garland of Roses on Saturday afternoon. From inside out in the starting gate, they are <b>#13 Chitu, #15 Tapiture, </b>and <b>#18 Candy Boy</b>. Let's take a look at these horses one at a time.<br />
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<b>#13 Chitu-</b> I was quite surprised as I handicapped the race that this horse stood out to me as much as he did. He had been considered Baffert's "other horse" for this Derby until Hoppertunity dropped out. Now, he is all the three-time Derby-winning trainer has left for Saturday. However, I don't think that this should detract from his chances in the Derby itself. Chitu has won three of four lifetime starts and was second in the other one. His Beyer speed figures have improved with each successive start: 92 in the first two tries, a 95 in running 2nd to Candy Boy in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis, and a 102 in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby. Jockey Martin Garcia has already teamed up with Bob Baffert to win a Triple Crown race, the 2010 Preakness with Lookin At Lucky. The two workouts Chitu has over the Churchill Downs track are solid. I don't think Chitu should be ignored on Saturday, especially at 20-1.<br />
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<b>#15 Tapiture-</b> I suppose the big story if this horse wins the Derby will be his trainer, Steve Asmussen, given the recent bad publicity he has received. I would hope that would not be the case because Asmussen is a very good trainer that has won his share of big races over the years, including a Triple Crown race, the 2007 Preakness with Curlin. I am now going to put that whole discussion behind us and discuss THIS horse, because I think he has a big chance in the Kentucky Derby. His Sire, Tapit, has been producing winning offspring for some time now and is considered one of the top Sires in the sport. Tapiture has a victory over the Churchill Downs oval, the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club, back in November. Since then, Tapiture acquitted himself quite nicely at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, winning the Grade 3 Southwest, finishing 2nd in the Grade 2 Rebel after a rough trip. Yes, he was a well-beaten 4th in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, but Danza was a powerhouse winner that day and it might have taken a really big effort to beat him. I don't want my Derby horse putting his biggest race up in the prep race. I want his biggest race to come on the First Saturday in May.<br />
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<b>#18 Candy Boy-</b> Gary Stevens has been on quite the "magic carpet ride" since coming out of retirement a couple of years ago. He won the Preakness last year with the D. Wayne Lukas-trained Oxbow, a horse I thought ended up having the best three races of any horse in the Triple Crown series last spring. Candy Boy won the Grade 2 Robert Lewis in February. He followed that up with a 3rd in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, behind California Chrome and Hoppertunity. I think California Chrome might get caught up in what promises to be a strong pace up front and Hoppertunity is no longer a threat to Candy Boy. This horse's style might fit the way this Derby is going to be run also. I think you might be looking at a carbon copy of the 2005 Derby. Bellamy Road was a huge favorite going in off a monster win (much like California Chrome is this year). Bellamy Road got caught in a heated pace battle up front and surrendered once the field turned for home, allowing the closers to race past and get a Derby win for Giacomo at 50-1. I'm not saying any of these horses will be 50-1 on Saturday, but they all stand a good chance of being there at the end of affairs.<br />
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So, which one factor will separate these three horses for me. I think it will be the men on their backs. Gary Stevens has won the Kentucky Derby three times in the past: 1988 with Winning Colors, 1995 with Thunder Gulch, and 1997 with Silver Charm. He knows how to win this race and as I referred to earlier, the "magic carpet ride" he is on doesn't seem to be ending. I have more faith in his ability to be a winner on Saturday than I do in Ricardo Santana Jr. or Martin Garcia, both of whom are still more than capable. That being said, here are my final selections for the 140th Kentucky Derby:<br />
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<b>WIN- #18 Candy Boy</b><br />
<b>PLACE- #15 Tapiture</b><br />
<b>SHOW- #13 Chitu</b><br />
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I want to wish all of you the absolute best of luck with your wagers on the 140th Kentucky Derby on Saturday, whether you agree with me or not. Let's hope for a fun, safe race and let's also hope that this Derby lives up to the annual billing it has as the "Most Exciting Two Minutes In Sports".<br />
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I will return in two weeks with in-depth analysis of the 139th Preakness, to be run Saturday, May 17 at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. Be sure to check out my Twitter page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-21631739494311183222013-08-23T09:44:00.002-07:002013-08-23T14:22:34.288-07:00The Grade 1 Travers StakesIt is time again for "The Mid-summer Derby" at Saratoga. Saturday's running will be the 144th renewal of the Grade 1 Travers Stakes. A field of nine will go to the post featuring this year's Kentucky Derby winner and runner-up, the Belmont winner, the Haskell winner, even the Virginia Derby winner will make an appearance at The Spa. It sets up to be a race with some speed present as Verrazano, Palace Malice, and Moreno all like to go to the front. Will this set things up for a closer? I certainly think so, according to the picks:<br />
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<b>#2 Orb (4-1) </b>has not won since the First Saturday In May. However, I do not feel that Orb will go on to be like Mine That Bird or Super Saver and never win another race after the Derby score. In fact, I think the Shug McGaughey trainee gets back to the Winner's Circle on Saturday. There will be plenty of pace for him to run into in the Travers, so his closing style should be a benefit here. He has been working like a beast in the mornings at Fair Hill and Saratoga with <u>THREE</u> consecutive bullet workouts on the tab. He even has a previous start at Saratoga. He ran third in his debut (behind Violence and Titletown Five) here last August. The price of 4-1 is even decent enough to speculate on Orb in this race.<br />
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<b>#3 Verrazano (2-1)</b> is the 2-1 morning line favorite in the Travers off a fantastic performance in the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth in July. He posted a Beyer figure of 116 in that victory, but if you look at his past performances, his previous best Beyer was a 105 on Groundhog Day at Gulfstream. He didn't repeat that number until the Haskell. It is entirely possible he bounces a bit off that big Haskell win. I think this is more of a factor given that there is going to be other speed for him to contend with here. John Velazquez is a genius in the saddle, but it appears to me that he will have a bit to overcome to be a winner in the Travers on Saturday.<br />
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<b>#7 War Dancer (15-1)</b> might be the longshot to look at in the Travers. This might be a bit of a silly statement, given that the colt has only run once on dirt (finishing a career-worst 4th). However, his recent speed figures have been improving steadily, culminating with a victory in the Grade 2 Virginia Derby over the grass at Colonial Downs. I feel he will be another beneficiary of what could be a wicked pace in this race. He tends to sit back in mid-pack or towards the back of the field and make one sustained run. Alan Garcia has been his jockey in all but one of his seven starts, so he should be very familiar with this Ken McPeek runner.<br />
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There is a 50-cent minimum Pick Four at Saratoga on Races 9-12, covering the Grade 1 Test, the Grade 2 Ballston Spa, the Grade 1 King's Bishop, and the Grade 1 Travers. That lineup might be the most stacked one since NBC had Must-See TV on Thursday nights.<br />
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Be sure to check out my Twitter page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!<br />
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<br />Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-12945068555849930372013-08-16T09:45:00.000-07:002013-08-16T09:46:02.729-07:00The Grade 1 Arlington MillionSaturday is the 31st running of the Arlington Million at Arlington Park in the Windy City. Hard to believe that it is already that long ago that John Henry fended off the gallant run of The Bart. That fantastic finish is immortalized with a statue at the Chicago track. Let's take a detailed look at some of the top contenders in this year's renewal of the Million:<br />
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<b>#3 Hunter's Light (8-1)</b> is the top pick here even though the last two efforts in Germany and Singapore weren't so hot. If you look back a bit in the PPs, this Godolphin runner won two of three starts over the Tapeta surface at Meydan in Dubai before finishing seventh behind Animal Kingdom in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup. This horse is bred to run on the turf forever with both Dubai Millennium and Barathea present in the lineage. Jockey Ryan Moore has four Breeders' Cup wins over the greenery and trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the Million in 2003 with Sulamani.<br />
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<b>#7 Indy Point (9-2) </b>comes next with this year's Preakness winning jockey, Gary Stevens, looking to become the first rider to win the Million three times. Indy Point made a strong debut in the Wickerr at Del Mar with a win on July 24th. It is interesting that trainer Richard Mandella elected to ship in from California for this effort, so you have to believe that Mandella believes. An interesting note about this colt is that he has been to the post thirteen times in his career and hit the board in all thirteen of those starts. Granted, the first twelve of those runs were in Argentina, so it remains to be seen just how tough the competition he has faced was, and if that toughness will rub off in a really tough spot Saturday.<br />
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<b>#10 The Apache</b> <b>(6-1)</b> merits a bit of consideration in here with a similar pattern to the top pick's recent races. He ran three times at Meydan in the spring, winning one and running second twice. Following the Dubai campaign, he took some time off and came back in a Group 2 at York in Great Britain and ran fourth off the layoff, finishing behind the morning-line favorite in the Million, Grandeur. I must admit that I like The Apache a shade more than Grandeur despite this because in examining the trip notes of the favorite, I can see lots of trouble mentioned in those. With Grandeur deep closing running style, he might encounter some issues that could stymie his rally.<br />
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Good luck on the entire Saturday card at Arlington Park with plenty of excellent racing available including the Beverly D and the Secretariat.<br />
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Be sure to check out my Twitter page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-55620137829711132992013-07-01T14:32:00.000-07:002013-07-01T14:37:18.135-07:00Wise DanThe 2012 Horse Of The Year, Wise Dan, has now been to the post three times in 2013. His comeback effort off his Breeders' Cup Mile win was a score at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Maker's 46 Mile five months after the win at Santa Anita. He followed that up with a Derby Day score in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, where he won easily by nearly five lengths. Finally, this past weekend, Wise Dan overcame somewhat of a troubled trip to win the Grade 2 Firecracker Handicap in a driving rainstorm at Churchill Downs.<br />
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The impost of 128 pounds for Wise Dan wasn't the only obstacle that he had to overcome. If you watch the replay, which is available here: <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/churchill-downs-wise-dan-has-options-after-firecracker-win">http://www.drf.com/news/churchill-downs-wise-dan-has-options-after-firecracker-win</a>, you will notice that Wise Dan never had a step of clear running until he made the lead in the stretch. He was kept boxed in by Lea and Brian Hernandez Jr. all the way to the top of the stretch. Wise Dan finally simply bulled his way through an exceedingly narrow opening on the hedge (in fact, he made contact with the hedge itself while in the process of taking the lead) and moved away to win like the champion that he is. <br />
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So, with Wise Dan now 3 for 3 in his 2013 campaign, he will go on to Saratoga, according to trainer Charlie LoPresti. The DRF article on the win in the Firecracker says that one of two turf spots, the Fourstardave or the Bernard Baruch are likely for Wise Dan. However, LoPresti did not rule out trying the dirt in the Whitney or the Woodward. <br />
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In a season where there appears to be a dearth of likely candidates for Horse Of The Year at this stage, there are certainly very strong odds that Wise Dan could earn a repeat of that crown in 2013. LoPresti appears to think, and correctly so, that running in and winning one of the Grade 1 dirt races at The Spa would continue to enhance Wise Dan's resume' while allowing him to continue to point for the Breeders' Cup Mile in November, as opposed to the Classic. <br />
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Personally, I think in a year with not much else standing out on the HOTY front, as long as Wise Dan remains unbeaten, he will be almost a certainty to win the title again. If you think about it, there are no three-year-old stand-outs following the Triple Crown trail. Yes, Oxbow probably ran the three best races of the series, winning the Grade 1 Preakness, but he still has quite a long way to go to get into the HOTY conversation. Of the other likely candidates entering the year, Ron The Greek has only an ungraded win in four 2013 starts and while Game On Dude is 3 for 3 this season himself, how many times can you keep beating Clubhouse Ride before it gets tedious? <br />
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In a perfect world, yes, Wise Dan would run in the Breeders' Cup Classic and go head-to-head with Game On Dude to settle the score on the racetrack at the end of the season. However, how many times do we actually get to have that perfect world scenario? If Wise Dan elects to go in the Breeders' Cup Mile again and if he remains undefeated heading into that race, then I believe he should remain the once and future king should he win it again.<br />
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Be sure to check out my Twitter Page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-59419784492509215472013-06-19T08:21:00.001-07:002013-06-19T08:21:17.776-07:00Animal KingdomThe final start of 2011 Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom's, career did not go the way everyone thought it might. His final performance came at Royal Ascot in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes and he rumbled home 11th of thirteen in the field for a disappointing period to what has been an outstanding career. <br />
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If you watch the replay of the race, which is available here: <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/royal-ascot-animal-kingdom-soundly-defeated-queen-anne">http://www.drf.com/news/royal-ascot-animal-kingdom-soundly-defeated-queen-anne</a>, Animal Kingdom appeared to be quite headstrong early on under jockey John Velazquez, who had to take a firm hold of the horse while settling him into stride. With just under two furlongs to go, Animal Kingdom had given way and dropped right out of contention while Declaration Of War went on with it under Joseph O'Brien to score a nifty win. In watching the race, it just seems that Animal Kingdom never got comfortable for whatever reason (a hot pace, the turf course, or his own inability to settle) and was spent very early on. <br />
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So, Animal Kingdom's career comes to an end with just one of two non-top three finishes he will have on his record (the other being the 2011 Belmont Stakes, where he was seriously compromised at the start). I believe that this inglorious end is just a blip on the overall resume' though. He has been brilliant nearly every time he went to the post and he did it on all the different surfaces available these days. He scored his Derby win over the conventional dirt at Churchill Downs. He dominated the field earlier this year in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup over Tapeta at Meydan. He also put forth a tremendous effort over the grass while falling short in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile at Santa Anita last fall. Animal Kingdom always gave his utmost, which is usually all you can ask of any champion. His career ended with a fizzle, but don't ever let that be your lasting image of him. The proper image of Animal Kingdom is of his lasting greatness. Hopefully, that greatness will be passed on to his progeny, both in Australia and North America.<br />
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Be sure to check out my Twitter page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!<br />
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Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-41709323023120620022013-06-17T10:22:00.000-07:002013-06-17T10:22:22.135-07:00VerrazanoThe 139th Kentucky Derby did not necessarily go the way it was expected to go for Verrazano, who had been one of the hot horses leading up to the First Saturday In May. Verrazano ended up being one of the victims of the hot pace set by eventual Belmont Stakes winner, Palace Malice, and finished a disappointing 14th in the race. In fact, he never really ended up being much of a factor at Churchill Downs, which also seemed to be part of the problem, since the track came up wet and sticky on Derby Day. <br />
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Well, this weekend, Verrazano rebounded nicely off that disappointment and scored an emphatic win in the Grade 3 Pegasus this Sunday at Monmouth Park. Verrazano took the lead in the race right out of the gate and never looked back, eventually recording a nearly ten-length victory. Of course, part of that result came because Itsmyluckyday, another Derby fizzler, was pulled up by jockey Mike Smith just as he was moving to challenge Verrazano's lead. The hope is that Itsmyluckyday's injury won't be a serious one. Even with that, you cannot discount Verrazano's win in the Pegasus, because he did what he was expected to do and win, while essentially controlling every aspect of the race. It was a dominating performance and hopefully, will be a large springboard to getting Verrazano back into the three-year-old picture this summer.<br />
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Trainer Todd Pletcher has already said that he is planning on Verrazano pointing to the next big three-year-old event at Monmouth Park, the Grade 1 $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational on July 28. The Haskell is always the highlight of the summer on the Jersey Shore and this year's edition should prove to be another classic, especially with the inclusion of a rejuvenated Verrazano. For a video of the Pegasus, click on this link: <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/monmouth-park-verrazano-romps-pegasus-itsmyluckyday-injured">http://www.drf.com/news/monmouth-park-verrazano-romps-pegasus-itsmyluckyday-injured</a>.<br />
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Be sure to check out my Twitter page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!<br />
<br />Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-38976436637287005282012-06-08T09:56:00.002-07:002012-06-08T09:56:55.961-07:00The Grade 1 $1,000,000 Belmont StakesThe dynamic behind the 144th Belmont Stakes changed abruptly on Friday morning with the scratch of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, I'll Have Another, due to what is being called severe tendinitis. This has, of course, taken almost all the drama out of the race since the Triple Crown try we were all hoping for is now not a possibility. However, we must be thankful that any possible injury to the horse was detected in advance of the race and now we must get on with the task at hand, which is analyzing the eleven horses remaining in the race. Here is the analysis:<br />
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Closers don't usually fare well in the Belmont Stakes for some reason. Rational thought would suggest that the longer distances would tire out the front-runners, allowing the come-from-behind horses to be more of a factor. However, history shows that just is not the case. The pacesetters in this Belmont Stakes appear to be <b>#2 Unstoppable U</b> and <b>#9 Paynter</b>. Unstoppable U is a lightly-raced colt that has won both lifetime starts over the New York tracks. Paynter was a cruising winner of his last race, an allowance start at Pimlico on Preakness day. He also was part of the Santa Anita Derby field, running 4th after not getting a good start. The next flight ought to include <b>#3 Union Rags, #6 Ravelo's Boy, #7 Five Sixteen, #8 Guyana Star Dweej, </b>and <b>#12 My Adonis</b>. Of these, Union Rags and My Adonis appear to be the only real contenders. Union Rags had a horrible time of it in the Kentucky Derby and there has been a rider switch to John Velazquez in the interim. My Adonis ran second behind Hansen in the Grade 3 Gotham earlier this year. As far as those deep closers, you have <b>#1 Street Life, #4 Atigun, #5 Dullahan, </b>and <b>#10 Optimizer</b>. Dullahan was the hot horse during Derby week and ran third at Churchill Downs. closing stoutly to gain that position. Street Life is well-considered off his third in the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 12. Optimizer has been in the gate for both the Derby and the Preakness, running 11th and sixth respectively. Here are the selections:<br />
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<b>MICHAEL'S TOP FOUR SELECTIONS: Paynter, Unstoppable U, Union Rags, Dullahan</b><br />
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They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again soon for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!<b> </b>Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-50708597776427091722012-05-18T12:35:00.001-07:002012-05-18T12:35:50.330-07:00The Grade 1 $1,000,000 PreaknessThe middle jewel of the Triple Crown takes place on Saturday at Pimlico in Baltimore and both of the main Derby combatants, I'll Have Another and Bodemeister, will be on hand to try their luck again. Bodemeister has been made the morning-line favorite over his conqueror from Louisville. They Are Off will be joined this time for the Preakness by Dr. Reid McLellan, my former fellow handicapper from Houston, offering his selections for the Preakness in addition to my own. Here is the analysis:<br />
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<strong>MICHAEL CHAMBERLAIN</strong><br />
<strong>#7 Bodemeister</strong> appears for all the world to be lone speed in the Preakness. However, it must be asked how much did the grueling fractions that he set in the Derby take out of him? It must also be asked if he is capable of returning to the races just two weeks off such a test when he has always had his previous races spaced out by approximately a month. Can he win the Preakness? Of course, I am just not sold on whether or not he will. On to <strong>#9 I'll Have Another</strong>, who has run only one bad race in six lifetime appearances. That came over a sloppy track at Saratoga in the Hopeful last September. His Derby performance was quite nice and the ride he got from Mario Guiterrez was pretty much perfect. He's three for three in 2012, winning three graded stakes races. Will he make it four? I think that <strong>#8 Daddy Nose Best</strong> is capable of a bounce-back effort off a 10th place finish in the Derby. He was the "hot horse" in Louisville to many observers and didn't come through there. Isn't it possible that he might step forward on Saturday and inject a price into the proceedings. Take note that Julien Leparoux returns to the saddle to ride here after not riding this colt in the Derby. There is always a "new shooter" that gets into the mix in the Preakness. My choice for that title this year goes to <strong>#1 Tiger Walk</strong>. He is owned by the local legends of Sagamore Farm. It would be nice for Maryland if that owner could once again be prominent in the Preakness. He is adding blinkers for this try and worked a bullet half-mile over the Pimlico track on Sunday, covering the distance in 47 3/5 seconds. I think that <strong>#2 Teeth Of The Dog</strong>, who finished ahead of Tiger Walk in the Wood Memorial, and <strong>#5 Went The Day Well</strong>, who closed outstandingly in the Derby to be fourth, also merit consideration.<br />
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<strong>Michael's Top Four Selections: I'll Have Another, Daddy Nose Best, Bodemeister, Tiger Walk</strong><br />
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<strong>DR. REID MCLELLAN</strong><br />
This year's Preakness handicapping task is a simple, straight-forward, logical puzzle of interesting pieces. <strong>#7 Bodemeister</strong> is now the "darling" of the racehorse media world. His Derby performance is being tabbed as the "best ever" by a front-runner- oh, except he LOST the Derby!! I don't see a single horse in this field that is fast enough to run with him early, so it will be his to lose. <strong>#9 I'll Have Another</strong> won the Derby, so he will be well-supported and has looked good so far in training at Pimlico. Plus, I like that trainer Doug O'Neill took him over to "Old Hilltop" for his pre-Preakness training. My Derby selection was <strong>#6 Creative Cause</strong>, who went back to California then flew across the country this week. This grey colt was in perfect position to strike in the Derby and flattened out. He has yet to show me that he has the necessary grit for a winning stretch move. The horse I thought made the best run in the Derby was <strong>#5 Went The Day Well</strong>. With the smaller field in the Preakness, he will not have to weave in and out of as much traffic and I think I will like his odds at post time better than the other three. I don't see any reason in the past performances to like any of the "new shooters", though a post parade impression might move one of them onto the bottom of the trifecta and superfecta plays.<br />
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<strong>Reid's Top Four Selections: Went The Day Well, I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Creative Cause</strong><br />
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Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again soon for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!<br />Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-32140054357699795482012-05-04T10:19:00.001-07:002012-05-04T10:19:26.882-07:00The Grade 1 $2,000,000 Kentucky DerbyThe 138th Run For The Roses will be held Saturday in Louisville, Kentucky with a field of twenty that I had been thinking was so wide open that you could start the race twenty different times and get twenty different results. I will say that my thinking has changed, as you will soon see. I am joined in analyzing the Kentucky Derby by They Are Off contributor Martha Claussen, whose paragraph on the race will follow immediately after my own. Here is the analysis:<br />
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<strong>MICHAEL CHAMBERLAIN</strong><br />
It is evident to me that there will be quite a bit of speed in this Derby coming from the likes of <strong>#3 Take Charge Indy</strong>, <strong>#6 Bodemeister</strong>, <strong>#9 Trinniberg</strong>, <strong>#14 Hansen</strong>, and <strong>#19 I'll Have Another</strong>. Calvin Borel is always dangerous in the Derby and him drawing the #3 hole with Take Charge Indy certainly gives his backers reason to hope. The classiest horse of the speed is the Arkansas Derby winner, Bodemeister, but he is lightly raced and didn't race as a two-year-old, which is a Kentucky Derby taboo. As far as those horses in the next flight, you have <strong>#4 Union Rags</strong>, <strong>#8 Creative Cause</strong>, <strong>#10 Daddy Nose Best</strong>, <strong>#11 Alpha</strong>, <strong>#13 Went The Day Well</strong>, <strong>#15 Gemologist</strong>, and <strong>#16 El Padrino. </strong>It is this set of horses that I think is the strongest in this Derby. I honestly think that the winner will come from this list of seven contenders. As far as the deep closers, there are <strong>#1 Daddy Long Legs</strong>, <strong>#2 Optimizer</strong>, <strong>#5 Dullahan</strong>, <strong>#7 Rousing Sermon</strong>, <strong>#12 Prospective</strong>, <strong>#17 Done Talking</strong>, <strong>#18 Sabercat</strong>, and <strong>#20 Liaison</strong>. Dullahan has been a hot horse since his win in the Toyota Blue Grass over the Polytrack at Keeneland, but his Churchill Downs record does not inspire. Most of the rest of this group are justifiable large longshots. <br />
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I think that portions of the speed will hold on well, especially Bodemeister. Of the second group, Gemologist is undefeated and gets Javier Castellano aboard. I am more and more impressed by his Wood Memorial as the days pass (and for that matter, Alpha's performance in the same race). El Padrino is a likable longshot in here at 20-1, plus you have the Rafael's Revenge angle since Bejarano was Bodemeister's regular rider until the Arkansas Derby win with Mike Smith aboard. I just don't see any of the really deep closers getting too involved in here, except maybe to pick up a chunk of the underneath awards.<br />
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<strong>Michael's Top Four Selections: Gemologist, Alpha, Bodemeister, El Padrino</strong><br />
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<strong>MARTHA CLAUSSEN</strong><br />
The Kentucky Derby has become more and more unpredictable each year and there is no reason to think that the 138th Run For The Roses will be any different. Gone are the days where the horse had to run as a two-year-old and make 4-5 starts in their three-year-old campaign. Turf pedigree and better synthetic form are not a problem and don't get me started on my most hated topic, Dosage! So, I will stick to one basic premise that I feel is as important as any and that is to find a "peaking horse" that appears to be improving in some way with each start.<br />
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Daddy Nose Best won just two of eight starts as a two-year-old, but is undefeated this year and his Beyers have escalated from 93 in the El Camino Real Derby to 100 in the Sunland Derby. Steve Asmussen ran second with my pick last year, Nehro, and maybe this is his year. I don't mind Julien Leparoux leaving and Garrett Gomez taking over. No Derby scores for either, but Gomez has ten Breeders' Cup wins and knows how to get a horse in position for a closing rally. I doubt he will go off at 15-1, but should be a good value, nonetheless. Bodemeister was perfection in the Arkansas Derby, but did he peak already or is he the real thing? Pedigree suggests he can get the distance. Love the connections of Graham Motion and Johnny V with Went The Day Well. Of course, who wants to look like an imbecile by ignoring Calvin "Bo-Rail" and Take Charge Indy.<br />
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<strong>Martha's Top Four Selections: Daddy Nose Best, Bodemeister, Went The Day Well, Take Charge Indy</strong><br />
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Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers made using these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again in two weeks for a look at The 137th Preakness Stakes. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!<br />
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<br />Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-52024536656648565752012-05-03T10:34:00.002-07:002012-05-03T22:25:58.334-07:00What The Voices Think FORE!!!This is the fourth consecutive year that I have polled some of my fellow racecallers to get their opinions on the Kentucky Derby. Last year, we had a first in that one of us (not me) selected the winner, Animal Kingdom. John Lies of Lone Star Park is back to defend his title and try to make it two straight winners of the Run For The Roses. Here are the opinions of some of the finest track announcers around today:<br />
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Pete "The Anchor" Aiello (River Downs)- Prospective<br />
Tom Harris (Houston)- Bodemeister<br />
John Lies (Lone Star Park)- Dullahan<br />
Dan Loiselle (Woodbine)- Creative Cause<br />
Frank Mirahmadi (Oaklawn)- Bodemeister<br />
Don Stevens (Delta Downs)- Union Rags<br />
Travis Stone (Louisiana Downs)- Gemologist<br />
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I will add more selections from the announcers as they come in to the home office. Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-30970464351552705682012-04-20T21:05:00.000-07:002012-04-20T21:13:46.403-07:00The Grade 2 $200,000 Lexington StakesIt appears that Saturday brings those interested their last major chance to qualify for the 138th Kentucky Derby two weeks hence with graded stakes earnings from the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes. The Lexington will feature a field of eleven horses going a mile and a sixteenth. Here is the analysis:<br />
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I think the most interesting horse in the field is <strong>#3 Johannesbourbon</strong>. He has only started one time over the Polytrack at Turfway Park and won at 6 1/2 furlongs. His winning margin was almost ten lengths. The natural question that arises is can he carry that ability around two turns? The Bob Baffert horse, <strong>#7 Castaway</strong>, was a horse I was thinking a Derby possibility until he failed miserably in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby. He had won one of the divisions of the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park. <strong>#10 News Pending</strong> ran well in the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream and then regressed to seventh in the subsequent Florida Derby. <strong>#2 Summer Front</strong> has been away from the races since mid-December, although his recent worktab features back-to-back bullets in April. The two horses that possess the most upside as far as I am concerned are <strong>#1 Morgan's Guerrilla</strong> and <strong>#11 Gold Megillah</strong>. Morgan's Guerrilla is removing the blinkers after running second in the Grade 3 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. Julien Leparoux rides and he has been winning wonderfully at Keeneland. Gold Megillah comes from the same connections as last year's Derby winner, Animal Kingdom. He ran third in his Polytrack debut in the ungraded Rushaway at Turfway on March 24. On the morning line, Morgan's Guerrilla is 6-1 and Gold Megillah is 10-1, so guess which way we are going.<br />
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<strong>THE PICK: #11 Gold Megillah</strong><br />
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Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-74323844722269348362012-04-17T20:28:00.002-07:002012-04-17T20:54:36.658-07:00Super Six Derby PixHard as it may be to believe, but we are currently just eighteen days away from the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Is it just me or was it just yesterday that Animal Kingdom was wearing roses? Anyway, the 138<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">th</span> Derby might just be one of the more wide-open editions of the Run For The Roses. I am literally thinking that you could load the twenty horses in the gate, spring the latch and you could get twenty different winners. Here are this week's Super Six Derby Pix:<br /><br /><strong>#1 Gemologist-</strong> It was just two years ago that <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">WinStar</span> Farm and Todd <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">Pletcher</span> teamed up for a Derby win with Super Saver. This <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">Tiznow</span> offspring is now 5 for 5 in his career and his last win was a fighting effort in the Wood Memorial with Alpha, who I have been high on all spring. Jockey Javier <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">Castellano</span> might just be the best rider in the business right now, which makes this team tough to beat.<br /><br /><strong>#2 Union Rags-</strong> It seems to me that the horse that most people were targeting as the favorite is suddenly forgotten after his loss in the Florida Derby and the wins last weekend from <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">Dullahan</span> and <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-error">Bodemeister</span>. Granted, his loss in the Florida Derby wasn't great, but I thought it was more of a product of a poor ride from <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error">Julien</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-error">Leparoux</span>. It might be one of the few times I can say "poor ride" and "<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_9" class="blsp-spelling-error">Leparoux</span>" in the same sentence, but it shouldn't cause anyone to discount the chances of this horse.<br /><br /><strong>#3 I'll Have Another-</strong> So far, so good in 2012 for this colt. He won the Robert Lewis at long odds and then followed it up with a win in the Santa Anita Derby in a tough stretch duel that also involved Creative Cause. It is worth noting that the only time this horse left the West Coast, he ran sixth in the Hopeful at <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_10" class="blsp-spelling-error">Saratoga</span>. Last time I checked, Kentucky was not on the West Coast. The other question with this horse is the jockey Mario <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_11" class="blsp-spelling-error">Guiterrez</span>. He has done well in the west, but how will do on the REALLY big stage?<br /><br /><strong>#4 Hansen-</strong> Can everyone please get off the dye job story involving this horse and his tail? Even the connections are sick of it. What cannot be overlooked is that he was run down by <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_12" class="blsp-spelling-error">Dullahan</span> this last weekend in the Blue Grass over the <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_13" class="blsp-spelling-error">polytrack</span> at <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_14" class="blsp-spelling-error">Keeneland</span>. I think, however, that Ramon Dominguez wasn't really asking for everything he could in the stretch of that race. Remember, Hansen has his spot already secured in Louisville, so while it would have been nice to win that race, it wasn't totally necessary.<br /><br /><strong>#5 <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_15" class="blsp-spelling-error">Bodemeister</span>-</strong> Empire Maker didn't win the Kentucky Derby (much to my chagrin), but this son of his certainly could. His performance at the Arkansas Derby this past weekend certainly was dazzling. However, when it comes to this horse, you must remember that the old statistic of no horse has won the Derby without running as a two-year-old since ye olden days comes into play here. <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_16" class="blsp-spelling-error">Bodemeister</span> didn't debut until January 16 of this year. Never mind Secret Circle though, I think this might be Bob <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_17" class="blsp-spelling-error">Baffert's</span> best Derby chance this season.<br /><br /><strong>#6 Creative Cause-</strong> He will have eight career starts when he goes <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_18" class="blsp-spelling-error">postward</span> at Churchill Downs, which is a lot these days. He has never missed the money in any of those performances. I think he is certainly going to be a win candidate in the Derby, but am concerned that he allowed I'll Have Another to go by and win the Santa Anita Derby. In the stretch of that race, I thought this grey was the winner, only to be rebuffed at the very end. He will have to negotiate another furlong on May 5.<br /><br />Tune in again this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-60557457245138815712012-04-13T21:12:00.004-07:002012-04-13T21:27:23.044-07:00The Grade 1 $1,000,000 Arkansas DerbyThe Kentucky Derby is now just three short weeks away. In recent weeks, several horses have established their credentials to go forward to Louisville, while still others remain on the outside looking in. There are now precious few opportunities to get into the gate for the Derby. One of those is at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, the Grade 1 $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby, the culmination of the Racing Festival Of The South. Here is the analysis:<br /><br />Of the horses in this field, likely only <strong>#5 Secret Circle</strong> is a lock to make the Derby field, should his connections elect to go that far. Speaking of going that far, that has always been the concern with this horse. How far can he go? The fact remains that if he keeps winning as these races get longer, then he certainly can go this far. Secret Circle will likely be forwardly placed in the Arkansas Derby, as will <strong>#11 Bodemeister</strong>. One of these horses will likely be the favorite on Saturday. However, since they have similar running styles, the possibility is there that these horses could burn each other out with some serious speed. So, if that happens and the two favorites fade away, who picks up the slack? I think that <strong>#6 Isn't He Clever</strong> certainly can be a winner here. His workouts are stellar with two recent bullet workouts. Blinkers are coming off this gelding for this try. <strong>#7 Optimizer</strong> made an impressive run to get second money in the Rebel at Oaklawn on March 17. However, he also didn't run a step in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds the time before. Which horse will show up? <strong>#8 Sabercat</strong> did earn enough money in the Delta Jackpot to ensure a Derby place, but he has only run once since that win and his eighth in the Rebel really doesn't inspire confidence for his chances, especially when it comes to the Derby in three weeks. I had been high on <strong>#3 Najjaar</strong> in the Rebel, but he never really got going until it was way too late and ended up a closing sixth. Maybe Calvin Borel won't wait until it's hopelessly late to get him rolling.<br /><br /><strong>THE PICK: #6 Isn't He Clever (6-1)</strong><br /><strong></strong><br />Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-10971559026632648902012-03-30T20:44:00.003-07:002012-03-30T21:03:53.845-07:00The Grade 2 $1,000,000 Louisiana DerbyNew Orleans will be hopping this weekend (as opposed to any other usual weekend in The Big Easy) with the Final Four on Saturday and the NCAA Title Game on Monday. Of course, the intervening Sunday will feature the 99th running of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. Here is the analysis:<br /><br />The early speed might very well be put forth by <span style="font-weight: bold;">#6 Cigar Street, #9 Comisky's Humor</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">#12 Hero Of Order</span>. I also happen to think that part of the favored entry, <span style="font-weight: bold;">#1a Mark Valeski</span>, will be quite close to whatever pace happens to develop. <span style="font-weight: bold;">#3 Windsurfer</span>, <span style="font-weight: bold;">#8 Arm Force</span>, and <span style="font-weight: bold;">#10 Z Dager</span> will also be in what I think will be the second flight of runners. <span style="font-weight: bold;">#7 Shared Property</span> is adding blinkers tonight. <span style="font-weight: bold;">#13 Afford</span> will need to overcome the #14 post position to be a factor here, but his running style is such that the post position might not affect him to much. The deep closers in the field appear to be <span style="font-weight: bold;">#4 Finnegans Wake, #5 Flashy Sunrise,</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">#11 Rousing Sermon</span>.<br /><br />Cigar Street was awesome in his maiden-breaking win at Fair Grounds on March 10, when he posted a field-best Beyer figure of 99. He went to the front, sent relaxed fractions, and widened out to a convincing win by over 13 lengths. I just don't think this race will set up the same way, since there appears to be a good amount of pace. The question becomes who will be the ones to pounce on the pacesetters late and what will the end result become? I think that Cigar Street's inexperience might play a factor against him here and while Mark Valeski is the logical choice after him, the price just won't be there for the entry, so I will be going with another horse that should be in a similar spot with a better price.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">THE PICK: </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">#13 </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">Afford (15-1)</span><br /><br />Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-56346886413794498522012-03-28T19:43:00.002-07:002012-03-28T20:11:31.434-07:00Super Six Derby PixThere are two major Kentucky Derby prep race this coming weekend, the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday and the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Sunday. That means this weekend will go a long way to crystallizing the picture for the Kentucky Derby just five weeks out. Here are this week's Super Six Derby Pix:<br /><br /><strong>#1 Union Rags-</strong> He will be part of the field in that Florida Derby on Saturday and will likely be the favorite. If he is the winner, then he will likely be the big favorite come Derby Day. His only misstep came in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. If he comes through on Saturday, the hype will kick in almost immediately for the big showdown with him and the horse that vanquished him in the Juvenile, Hansen.<br /><br /><strong>#2 Hansen- </strong>First, it appeared that he would be going the Florida route, but he lost to the now-departed Algorithms in the Holy Bull. He then went north and rocked the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. Therefore, it was assumed he would stick in the Big Apple and run in the Wood Memorial. Not so fast, as he is now scheduled to run in the Blue Grass Stakes over the polytrack at Keeneland. This movement has affected the plans of other runners, but since Hansen is one of the big dogs, his connections can do what they want to.<br /><br /><strong>#3 El Padrino-</strong> The first Todd Pletcher trainee on the list has been a vagabond of sorts as well. He flashed on the scene this year after a flashy Allowance win at Gulfstream Park on January 29. From there, he went to Louisiana and eked out a victory in the Risen Star, just withstanding the challenge of Mark Valeski, who will be one of the favorites in the Louisiana Derby this weekend. Meanwhile, El Padrino has gone back to Florida and will be part of the field in the Florida Derby.<br /><br /><strong>#4 Creative Cause- </strong>He has been the top dog on the West Coast this season. Yes, he ran third in the San Vicente, but he followed that up with a strong score in the San Felipe on March 10. He will likely be the big favorite in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7, which will likely be his last start before heading to Kentucky. Remember, he was not that far behind Hansen and Union Rags in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall, so the deficit to make up really isn't that much.<br /><br /><strong>#5 Alpha-</strong> This is the horse that trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has been waiting to see where everyone else was going to go before he decided what to do with him. He might be the best chance Godolphin has had for that elusive Derby win that they want so badly. After all the thrusting and parrying with the schedule, he will go postward in the Wood Memorial on April 7. Granted his Breeders' Cup Juvenile was disappointing, but he has been solid as a rock in two wins over the inner track at the Big A. It will be interesting to see how he does over the main dirt surface there.<br /><br /><strong>#6 Prospective-</strong> He was the best of the bunch at Tampa Bay Downs this winter season. He overcame a horrible post draw to run second in the Sam Davis and then withstood a stern challenge from longshot Golden Ticket to win the Tampa Bay Derby itself after drawing the rail. He might be facing off with Alpha in the Wood Memorial on April 7 in New York. However, if you are going to denigrate Alpha for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then Prospective deserves demerits for the race also since he finished 13th.<br /><br />Tune in again later this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-1156898976362552932012-03-16T11:05:00.003-07:002012-03-16T11:18:47.123-07:00The Grade 2 $500,000 Rebel StakesThe lone major Kentucky Derby prep on St. Patrick's Day takes place in Hot Springs, Arkansas at <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">Oaklawn</span> Park. The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes is final tune-up for a field of thirteen hopefuls who wish to progress to the Arkansas Derby and then on to the Kentucky Derby. Bob <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">Baffert</span> brings Secret Circle back to test the distance waters again at 1 1/16 miles following an impressive win in the 1 mile Southwest Stakes. Here is the analysis:<br /><br />Clearly, <strong>#8 Secret Circle</strong> will be the main speed threat in this race. Granted he sat slightly off the pace of <strong>#3 <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">Scatman</span></strong> in the Southwest on February 20, then rallied to get a win by a half-length. Both horses eclipsed Beyer numbers of 100 in that division of the Southwest. It could very well develop into a speed battle between these two again in the Rebel. Of course, what will be the key factor is what happens behind them. Who might come and get them if they tire late? Delta Jackpot winner, <strong>#7 <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">Sabercat</span></strong>, ought to be rolling late, along with the Charles <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">Cella</span>-owned <strong>#4 <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">Cyber</span> Secret</strong>. I think there is a myriad of <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">possibilities</span> as far as deep closers in here, especially with the extra distance<strong>. #5 Optimizer</strong> has plenty of experience with racing in tall cotton, having finished 3rd and 8<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error">th</span> in two previous Grade 1 tries. Steve <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-error">Asmussen</span> sends out the lightly raced<strong> #1 <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_9" class="blsp-spelling-error">Unbridled's</span> Note</strong> and <strong>#11 <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_10" class="blsp-spelling-error">Najjaar</span></strong> is a come-from-behind horse that has won two straight at <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_11" class="blsp-spelling-error">Oaklawn</span> and gets Calvin <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_12" class="blsp-spelling-error">Borel</span> up. Isn't Calvin kind of overdue to get a big win again?<br /><br /><strong>THE PICK: #11 <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_13" class="blsp-spelling-error">Najjaar</span> (6-1)</strong><br /><strong></strong><br />Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25996978.post-3467811726014074002012-03-14T13:47:00.002-07:002012-03-14T14:18:28.593-07:00Super Six Derby PixThe Kentucky Derby picture continues to sharpen its focus as we draw nearer and nearer to the First Saturday In May, when the issue will finally be decided underneath the Twin Spires. The big prep race on St. Patrick's Day will be the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">Oaklawn</span> Park in Arkansas. Trainer Bob <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">Baffert</span> swept both divisions of the Southwest Stakes earlier this meet at <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-error">Oaklawn</span> with Castaway and Secret Circle. Here are the Pix for this week:<br /><br /><strong>#1 Union Rags-</strong> He cemented his status as the early favorite after his convincing win in the Fountain Of Youth. The only question that remains after that effort is; "what did he beat?". Algorithms scratched and is now out of action, so while Union Rags remains at the top of the pops, I think he must put together another sterling effort in the Florida Derby to remain as <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">number one</span>.<br /><br /><strong>#2 El <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">Padrino</span>-</strong> Trainer Todd <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-error">Pletcher</span> took this top candidate away from Florida for his last try in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. What he got was all he could handle. El <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error">Padrino</span> won the Risen Star, but only after being extended to the limit by Mark <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-error">Valeski</span> in New Orleans. Now, <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_9" class="blsp-spelling-error">Pletcher</span> has elected to go back to Florida and <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_10" class="blsp-spelling-error">Gulfstream</span> Park for the Florida Derby on March 31. It could turn the Florida Derby into the biggest and best prep race of the season.<br /><br /><strong>#3 Hansen-</strong> The Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner stole the title of New York's leading Derby candidate away from Alpha with his win in the Gotham Stakes on March 3. His race was maybe one of his best overall efforts, considering he had to overcome his outside post position, which essentially compromised his preferred running style of being in front all the way. Hansen ended up sitting just off the early leaders and stormed into the lead at the stretch call and went on to win by three lengths.<br /><br /><strong>#4 Creative Cause-</strong> There was a time earlier this year when I thought the Derby winner would be a product of Southern California. Maybe I was right, but I wasn't necessarily thinking about this grey colt. Yes, he ran third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but he also ran third in the San Vicente at Santa Anita on February 19. He followed that one up with a nifty score over the relatively inexperienced <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_11" class="blsp-spelling-error">Bodemeister</span> in the San Felipe. The next stop if the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.<br /><br /><strong>#5 Alpha-</strong> Admittedly, I have been high on this <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_12" class="blsp-spelling-error">Godolphin</span> colt for a while now. He really has never made a mistake throughout his early year campaign in New York. His lone poor effort, unfortunately, came on the biggest stage he has faced thus far, an 11<span id="SPELLING_ERROR_13" class="blsp-spelling-error">th</span> in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in November. Now, there is uncertainty as to where he will race next, with the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Wood Memorial still under consideration by trainer <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_14" class="blsp-spelling-error">Kiaran</span> McLaughlin.<br /><br /><strong>#6 Prospective-</strong> I thought quite a bit of his second place finish in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay, considering he drew the outside post in the field of eleven. Conversely, he drew the rail post position in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 10. Needless to say, I also thought quite a bit of this effort, given that no one gave him his victory. He was given a taut battle by <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_15" class="blsp-spelling-error">longshot</span> Golden Ticket in the Tampa Bay Derby and managed to prevail nicely.<br /><br />Tune in again later this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!Michael Chamberlainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09759586304144339085noreply@blogger.com0