Thursday, May 03, 2007

The 133rd Kentucky Derby

Nobiz Like Shobiz is my top pick in Saturday's Kentucky Derby. He won the Wood Memorial impressively and the only two races he has NOT won were races in which he encountered trouble. That might happen in a 20-horse race on Saturday, but I still think he is the best one in the field. Any Given Saturday is one of FIVE Todd Pletcher trainees in the field and he could be the best of the bunch. He has never finished out of the top three in any of his six starts. Street Sense won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year and no winner of that race has ever won the Derby the following spring. He is certainly a candidate to do it, but he has only two preps this year. Of all the longshots, I think the most attractive are Dominican and Sam P. It would not surprise me if either wore the roses on the big day. Here is what I think the complete order of finish will be:

1) Nobiz Like Shobiz; 2) Any Given Saturday; 3) Street Sense; 4) Dominican; 5) Sam P.; 6) Scat Daddy; 7) Hard Spun; 8) Curlin; 9) Circular Quay; 10) Great Hunter; 11) Teufelsberg; 12) Sedgefield; 13) Liquidity; 14) Zanjero; 15) Stormello; 16) Cowtown Cat; 17) Bwana Bull; 18) Tiago; 19) Imawildandcrazyguy; 20) Storm In May

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