Getting The Band Back Together

For the majority of my time in Houston, I had the distinct pleasure of working with two excellent people in the Communications Department. If you read this blog, you are already familiar with Martha Claussen, who was the boss and an astute handicapper. The second person I worked with was Dr. Reid McLellan, a gentleman who was the Fan Education Director at the racetrack in Houston, but he is about as familiar with horseflesh as anyone I ever met. The three of us would have very spirited seminars where we would discuss the merits of our picks for the big occasions and usually spend a good chunk of time bashing the other two members of the trio for whatever reason. So, for the first time (and certainly not the last time) in the history of They Are Off, here are the opinions of two of the three members of the group (with the third member's thoughts to come tomorrow). We'll go with ladies first!:

Martha Claussen's Derby Thoughts

Always a pleasure to reunite with my former colleagues, Michael and Reid and I will try not to be too crabby about this less than stellar group of 3-year-olds!

I have been a fan of Dialed In since the Holy Bull in January and although I am disappointed that he is the favorite, I cannot get off the Nick Zito bandwagon. Dialed In has a huge closing kick and quality pedigree as his sire, 2003 Horse of the Year, Mineshaft, is a son of the incomparable A.P. Indy. My last Derby winner, Monarchos, won the Florida Derby, so I have always loved the Florida road to the Derby. This will be Zito's 25th Derby starter and his third win. Go Nick Go! Soldat flopped in the Florida Derby, but is the only horse in the field with a Beyer Speed Figure over 100 (no joke!). I had my doubts about Master of Hounds, believing he was more of a turf specialist than a true Derby contender. This year, obviously, the standards have changed and the Aiden O'Brien charge has as much of a shot as the rest of the 30-1's. He did run last November at Churchill Downs, finishing sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G2). His prep for the Derby was the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) on the Meydan polytrack, where he ran second. I dissed the chances of Paddy O'Prado last year and he ran third, so why not go turf again for a nice price. Nehro ran a huge race in the Arkansas Derby, closing gamely for second. Might be peaking right at the right time.

Martha’s Top Four Selections – Dialed In, Soldat, Master of Hounds, Nehro

Suggested Derby Play:
The Woodford Reserve precedes the Derby and is wide-open, but I am going to narrow it to four runners: Little Mike, Prince Will I Am, Doubles Partner and Expansion. Will wheel over eight Derby horses (my top four and four more longshots) and finish it off with a single in race 12, Streakin' Mohican.

Pick 3 - Race 10-12
1-5-8-14 with 1-7-8-9-11-15-17-19 with 9
Total $32

Dr. Reid McLellan's Derby Thoughts

This was without doubt the most difficult Derby field to handicap since I started handicapping before my announcer buddy was born. If this was a non-winner of THREE allowance race, THIRTEEN of these would be eligible to enter, with three being non-winners of TWO. One of my favorite Derby winners (and to be a favorite Derby winner it had to be my top pick for that race) was a non-winner of two, 1987 winner Alysheba. So in 2011 I am going back to that well one more time and pick #11 Master Of Hounds as my top pick in what could be one of the most exciting Derby finishes in a long time. This son of Kingmambo looked impressive training at last year's Breeders' Cup at Churchill and I think his breeding is the best of this bunch. Then what do I do? Another of the N2L runner, #19 Nehro, has the co-best last race Beyer Speed Figure, sharing that (lowly) number with #1 Archarcharch. I have a special connection with #13 Mucho Macho Man as his trainer, Kathy Ritvo (and her husband Tim) are big supporters of the Groom Elite program at Gulfstream Park. The Ritvo Stable pony that escorts "3M" to the track in Florida each morning is my demonstration horse in the afternoon. I wonder if Martha picked #7 Pants On Fire and his female rider, Rosie Napravnik, a good young rider that has an outside shot to be the first female rider to win the Derby. But what do I do with #18 Uncle Mo, impressive as a two-year-old but enters the race with a lot of questions. And, it was #4 Stay Thirsty that looked the best to me on the track during morning gallops last weekend. If everyone takes back and lets either #6 Comma To The Top or #14 Shackleford get loose on the lead, they may prove tough to catch. But I think we will see a mad dash to the front, Uncle Mo will get caught up in it and the race will go to the mid-pack closer that gets the best trip.

Reid's Top Four Selections- Master Of Hounds, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, Archarcharch

PURPLE POWER DERBY PLAY: $10 WIN #11 and $1 EX BOX 1-11-13-19 and $1 SPR 11 with 1-13-18 with 1-4-7-13-19 with 1-4-7-8-13-18-19

TOTAL- $82

My thanks to both Martha and Reid for their contributions to the blog and we will certainly try to bring them both back for the remainder of the Triple Crown races. My selections for the 137th Kentucky Derby will be posted on the blog tomorrow. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

What The Voices Think 3.0

For the third consecutive year, I have asked some of my fellow announcers in the horse racing world for their opinions on who will win the Kentucky Derby. The first two years of this produced exactly zero correct selections (although Don Stevens of Delta Downs DID have the trifecta in his first three picks he e-mailed last year). Don's pick for this year will be posted later on this week in an update of this post. However, here is the sampling from some other voices of racing:

Pete "The Anchor" Aiello (Hialeah and River Downs)- Twinspired
Craig Braddick (Yavapai Downs)- Dialed In
Tom Harris (Retama Park and Houston)- Midnight Interlude
John Lies (Lone Star Park)- Animal Kingdom
Dan Loiselle (Woodbine)- Archarcharch
Don Stevens (Delta Downs)- Dialed In
Travis Stone (Louisiana Downs)- Midnight Interlude
James Witherite (Harrah's Chester Harness)- Dialed In

As I said, this post will be updated with more picks as they come in to the home office. Tomorrow will feature Derby selections from my old Houston co-handicappers, Martha Claussen and Dr. Reid McLellan. Friday will be the big day with this voice's selections for the 137th Kentucky Derby. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Grade 3 $200,000 Cliff's Edge Derby Trial

The blog is currently in the midst of a minor slump, so minor in fact, that we are $290 in the hole for 2011. However, we are nothing if not persevering. This week's race is the Grade 3 $200,000 Cliff's Edge Derby Trial. Back in the day, this race was actually a springboard into the Kentucky Derby. While it has not been that for many years (I think the last horse to run in the Trial and then do well in the Derby was Don't Get Mad, who was 4th in 2005), the Derby Trial is the Opening Day feature on the Churchill Downs program. Here is the analysis:

My top selection will be #5 JJ's Lucky Train. I think he might have some value here, given the fact that Travelin Man is 7-5 on the morning line, which I find wildly optimistic. JJ's Lucky Train won the Grade 3 Bay Shore at Aqueduct on April 9. He also has been the one mile distance before and even run on a muddy track. The Louisville oval might have some moisture in it still after a rash of storms have pelted the area for some time. My second selection is #8 Indiano. He did run 2nd to Travelin Man in the Grade 2 Swale at Gulfstream on April 3, but again he has experience with wet surfaces and significantly more experience than the projected favorite in here. Garrett Gomez will ride. I will use the morning line favorite, #2 Travelin Man, as my third pick in the Derby Trial. He has two wins and a second in three lifetime starts, the second coming to the dominating Flashpoint in the Grade 2 Hutcheson. However, he has never run a mile before. The farthest he has gone is seven furlongs. It is worth noting that two of his three Beyer figures were in the low 100s. I will use 8-1 shot, #7 Indian Winter, in the fourth spot as a possible price pick. He posted a bullet workout on April 22 at Hollywood Park and I actually saw him run in the Turf Paradise Derby on February 26. It was a troubled trip and he seemed somewhat immature in there. Hopefully, he has done some growing up. Here is the play for the Grade 3 Cliff's Edge Derby Trial:

$10 WP #5
$2 EX 5 with 2-3-7-8
TOTAL- $28

Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for the 137th Kentucky Derby coverage. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Giacomo

Can it honestly already be six years since Giacomo (pictured) won the Kentucky Derby at odds of 50-1 for the now-familiar connections (through Zenyatta) of The Mosses, John Shirreffs, and Mike Smith? This 2005 Derby was really the first time that grouping of owner, trainer, and jockey really burst onto the national scene.

That 2005 Derby was very similar to this year's edition in that it was so wide open. Bellamy Road was considered the prohibitive favorite, based on his smashing win in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Bellamy Road's trainer, Nick Zito, had five horses in the twenty horse field. Zito also sent Noble Causeway, Andromeda's Hero, High Fly, and Sun King to the post at Churchill Downs. Afleet Alex was also well-fancied (and would prove to be easily the best horse of the class by winning The Preakness and The Belmont Stakes) with young Jeremy Rose in the irons. The upset winner of the 2004 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Wilko, was part of the proceedings. Spanish Chestnut, who would set the dazzling pace, was in the field also, so you knew who would be up front.

The horse that actually ran the best race of the day was Closing Argument, who would get caught at the wire by Giacomo. Closing Argument would have to settle for second at odds of 71-1. Closing Argument was up close to the quick pace most of the way around and seemed to have enough left through the stretch to win. I must admit I still get goosebumps when I listen to Tom Durkin's call of this Derby and he says, "Closing Argument in with a chance" during the stretch drive was complete incredulity that the longshot was still right there.

Giacomo sat well back off the 22.28 quarter and the 45.38 half-mile fractions in eighteenth place. By the time Smith had him in motion, the pacesetters were starting to fall apart. Spanish Chestnut would finish sixteenth, Going Wild would finish eighteenth, and Bandini would finish nineteenth. Meanwhile, Closing Argument had taken the lead and had Afleet Alex bearing down on him on the inside and Giacomo moving up on the outside. The three horses came through the lane in a pulsating stretch drive that resulted with Giacomo in front by a half-length, Closing Argument second by the same margin, and Afleet Alex in third place. Giacomo paid $102.60 to win on Derby Day and Closing Argument paid $70 to place.

I look back on this Derby with mixed feelings. I did have win money on Giacomo that day. My $5 win ticket turned into $250. However, I had posted on a horse racing forum that week that the two best longshots in the race were Giacomo and Closing Argument. Guess who didn't have a ticket on the exacta that paid $9,814.80? Yeah, that one stung for a while, but I did totally luck into the Mine That Bird-Pioneerof The Nile two years ago for nearly $2,100, so I can't complain too much about it. After all, I still left the track on Derby Day 2005 a winner.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of horsehats.com

Super Six Derby Pix

This will be the final version of the Pix for 2011. Next week is Derby week, of course, and there will be plenty of action to jam pack into the blog. Anyway, here are the Pix for this week:

#1 Dialed In- It is now almost inevitable that the Nick Zito trainee will be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. He is the only contender that really didn't stumble somewhere along the way, winning the Holy Bull and Florida Derby. He did run second to his stablemate in the Florida Derby prep, but that was with older horses and I don't think that was intended to be more than a public, paid workout anyway.

#2 Toby's Corner- The Wood Memorial winner was late arriving on the scene for the Derby, but I think his win in the Wood was the single most impressive prep race of the whole season. If he can overcome the traffic he will face in Louisville with his running style the same way he overcame it at The Big A, I think they will be fitting his flank with a garland of roses on May 7.

#3 Archarcharch- The undisputed King of Oaklawn this spring, winning the Southwest and the Arkansas Derby. He even ran a credible race in defeat in the Rebel, when The Factor was the greatest thing since sliced bread. If they could somehow transport the surface in Arkansas to Kentucky, he would be 8-5 to win the Roses. However, since they are not running the Derby at Oaklawn, he will have to do it on his ability, which still might be enough.

#4 Mucho Macho Man- I still think this one might turn out to be the sleeper of the sleepers on Derby Day. He won the Risen Star and lost the Louisiana Derby, although the Derby effort was compromised with issues encountered shortly after leaving the gate. He still ran third that day, even with the problems. I know Nehro is the sudden "hot horse" of all the wiseguys, but he didn't lose to Nehro by much and I am interested to see how they match up with everything even.

#5 Uncle Mo- The workout this morning of five furlongs in 1:01.3 was a nice return to form by the 2010 Juvenile Champion. He had been the favorite until the shocking loss in the Wood. The question is now, was it just a momentary stumble on the way to history, the way it was for Secretariat and Monarchos (who just happened to run the two fastest Derbies ever) or was it symptomatic of a larger problem of distance limitations for this colt?

#6 Soldat- I think the defection of The Factor from the Kentucky Derby really helps his chances on May 7. I had been very high on him before the nightmare of the Florida Derby. He was overheated that day, didn't get the lead, and didn't run his race. He should be up front in the Derby. The only question with him is will he be alone on the lead or will another speedster like Shackleford compromise his position?

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Grade 2 $150,000 Jerome Stakes

The major prep race for the Kentucky Derby this weekend is, in all honesty, the last one that really matters. It is the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, but it drew only a paltry field of six and of those, only Silver Medallion can earn enough money to make the field of twenty for the Derby. Therefore, I will be handicapping the Grade 2 Jerome Handicap at Aqueduct, which might also have an impact on the Triple Crown series this year. Here is the analysis:

The top pick will be #5 Rattlesnake Bridge, who ran a decent second behind former Derby favorite, Uncle Mo, in the Timely Writer at Gulfstream. His Sire is Tapit, who has been producing quality runners by the bushel lately. The trainer is Kiaran McLaughlin, who has other stronger three-year-olds in his stable. Jose Lezcano was aboard for the Timely Writer and gets the call again here. WinStar Farm's #2 Cal Nation is the second choice here. John Velazquez has a win and second with this colt in two lifetime pairings. He has been the betting choice in both previous races and will likely have that honor again here. His last work over the Belmont Training Track was four furlongs in 48 3/5 seconds. A.P. Indy is on the bottom side of the breeding. Jess Jackson passed away this week and his Stonestreet Stables horse, #1 Astrology, is my third choice. Jackson recently pulled this horse off the Derby Trail after his disappointing return to the races with a distant second in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, behind Twice The Appeal. A.P. Indy is the Sire here. Mike Smith will be at the controls for the first time in this spot. Finally, I will use a nifty longshot, I think, in #4 Isn't He Perfect. He ran fifth in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial just a couple of weeks ago, but was in contention with a furlong to go. I like the price of 20-1 on the morning line. His Sire is 2003 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, Pleasantly Perfect. Here is the play for the Grade 2 Jerome Stakes:

$10 WIN #5
$1 EX BOX 1-2-4-5-6
TOTAL- $30

Right now, the blog is MINUS $260, so we better get a winner before the Derby to keep our head near the water. They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Jess Jackson

Jess Jackson, who is best known recently as the owner of Curlin and Rachel Alexandra, passed away at the age of 81 due to complications from the cancer that he has suffered from for quite some time.

Jackson always did things his way when it came to his horses. Curlin won two Horse Of The Year Awards under Jackson's watch in 2007 and 2008. Rachel Alexandra made it a three-peat for Jackson-owned horses in 2009. Those two horses are now destined to be further connected in the future, as Rachel Alexandra is in foal to Curlin.

Curlin won the Preakness in 2007, in an exciting stretch duel with the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense. Curlin, by the way, had finished third in the Derby. Curlin would go on to drill the entire field in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic over the sloppy track at Monmouth.

Rachel Alexandra would win the 2009 Preakness, holding off the Kentucky Derby winner also, Mine That Bird, who made a furious charge that fell short. Rachel had inspired comparisons to the greats of the past with her 20-length victory in the Kentucky Oaks the day before the Derby. It was after that performance that Jackson had purchased the filly. Rachel would never get the chance to run in the Breeders' Cup in 2009, as Jackson elected not to send her to California to run over what he called the "plastic" synthetic surface Santa Anita had at the time.

It is a shame that Jackson didn't get the chance to see his two great champions produce what is currently expected to be a superfoal. Of course, you never can tell what will come after Rachel Alexandra delivers the foal, he or she may be great, he or she may not be great. Whatever comes from the pairing of the two great ones, the one certainty will be that the foal will continue the tremendous racing legacy of Jess Jackson, which has been cut far too short.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Craig Braddick

I just wanted to take a quick opportunity to thank Craig Braddick for his visit on Tuesday to Turf Paradise. Craig will be the announcer this summer at Yavapai Downs in Prescott, Arizona and came by on Tuesday to call a couple of races and give the Arizona racing fans a small taste of what they can expect to hear this summer up north.

Craig called the fourth and eighth races on the Tuesday program and if those are any indication, I am sure the folks at Yavapai will be in quite capable hands and will enjoy hearing Craig's voice on a daily basis. Of course, Craig is not new to this race calling business, having called at Arapahoe Park in Colorado and served as a guest announcer at numerous racetracks, including Turfway Park in Kentucky and Mountaineer Park in West Virginia to name a couple.

Craig stayed over an extra day to have a 4&3 whooping administered to him on the links today by yours truly, which made the dinner I won off him all the more tasty. Don't worry, Craig, you will get your chance at redemption once I return to Arizona from Nebraska and pay you a return visit this summer.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

It was yet another wild and woolly weekend on the Derby Trail with massive longshots winning the two key preps, the Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn (although there is NO WAY Archarcharch should have been 25-1 based on his previous races at Oaklawn). This has, of course, shaken up the Derby picture no end with less than three weeks to go to the big day. Here are this week's Super Six Derby Pix:

#1 Dialed In- Nick Zito continues to hold pocket aces with the Florida Derby champion. Of course, as any poker player will tell you, pocket aces get cracked all the time. It is clear, though, that Dialed In has been the most impressive of all the horses that will be going into the gate for the Derby on May 7 so far this year. His win in the Holy Bull raised eyebrows, he ran a decent second against older horses in the Florida Derby prep, and he won the Florida Derby while everything else collapsed around him.

#2 Toby's Corner- It has been a fast rise up the Pix for the Wood Memorial winner, but he did beat the assumed favorite since last November in Uncle Mo. He overcame quite a bit to get the job done at Aqueduct, showing that he can negotiate through traffic if necessary, which will be a very valuable skill at Churchill Downs. It could be an exciting stretch run in the Derby with this one and Dialed In both rallying from far back if there is any pace on at all.

#3 Archarcharch- The Arkansas Derby winner went off at a ridiculous price on Saturday and paid a handsome $52.40 to those that backed him at Oaklawn. Given his win in the Rebel and a not too back third in the Southwest, I just don't see how the bettors let him off at that price. Of course, if it happens again at Churchill Downs, I'll be ready with some win money on him at the inflated number.

#4 Mucho Macho Man- He tore a hoof in the Louisiana Derby and still ran a credible third behind Pants On Fire and Nehro that day. His win in the Risen Star gets discounted a little with Santiva's poor effort in the Blue Grass Stakes (although I might be inclined to give Santiva a second chance since that race was run over the polytrack). He posted a workout of seven furlongs in 1:23.66 on Sunday morning and if he is running that well come May 7, we will certainly know "Quien Es Mas Macho?", to quote SNL circa 1978.

#5 Uncle Mo- OK, if you believe Todd Pletcher, then his gastrointestinal problem was the cause of the letdown in the Wood Memorial. Not the fact that this was a short horse due to being babied up until that race. Honestly, it was likely the first time the horse ever was challenged to that extent and he just didn't have any kind of foundation to fall back on when he needed it. He is still the 2010 Champion Juvenile Colt, but that won't mean a hill of beans when the gates open at Churchill Downs.

#6 Soldat- Once the apple of my eye, his trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, says that the horse is training well again after the disaster that was the fifth in the Florida Derby. He honestly showed no response in that race and The Factor actually ran a similar race this past weekend in the Arkansas Derby. He didn't get the lead, didn't respond when called on, and didn't do what was expected and necessary at this late stage of the game.

Tune in again this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Grade 1 $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes

Keeneland will host its penultimate Derby prep this Saturday with the 87th running of the Grade 1 $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes. It features a very closely matched field of twelve going postward led by the likely favorite, Santiva. Santiva has been on my Derby radar since his win over Astrology last fall at Churchill Downs in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. Since he will be at short odds on Saturday, though, you just know I have to try and find a way to defeat him. Here is the analysis:

My top choice will be #11 Crimson China. He broke his maiden over the synthetic surfaces at Wolverhampton in Great Britain last November. Since then, he has run on the turf once at Gulfstream and once on the polytrack at Turfway Park. He has a win and a second in those two races. I also think he is a very generous 10-1 on the morning line in here. He has never been worse than second in four lifetime starts and trainer Graham Motion figures to have him ready for a big run. For second, I will use #12 Queen'splatekitten. Although, you would figure this one is more likely to be pointing to the Queen's Plate at Woodbine in June. He crushed his maiden-breaking race at Woodbine last December and won the return from the layoff at Gulfstream in February. John Velazquez gets the riding assignment on this 12-1 shot. #2 King Congie was disqualified from a win in the Hallandale Beach over the turf at Gulfstream last time out on February 6. His last workout came at Keeneland and was decent enough, five furlongs in 1:00 3/5. Rajiv Maragh gets the call on this colt Saturday. Finally, I will round out the top four with #9 Wilkinson, who ran his worst race ever last time out in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, but I tend to want to throw that one out because his break was so terrible. He does have a previous try over the track at Keeneland, finishing second in his debut effort on October 21 at seven furlongs. The Sire is 1999 Belmont Stakes winner, Lemon Drop Kid. Here is the play for the Grade 1 $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes:

$5 WP #11
$1 EX BOX 2-3-9-11-12
$1 TRI 11-12 with 11-12 with 2-3-6-9
TOTAL- $38

The blog is currently MINUS $222 for the year, meaning we really need a hit to keep our heads near the Mendoza line. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

In the movie "Guess Who's Coming To Dinner?". Spencer Tracy quotes Isobel Sanford, who played the family maid with the following line, "All Hell done broke loose now!" To say that is what has happened to the Kentucky Derby picture would be a fabulous understatement. The favorite didn't win ANY of the three prep races this past weekend. Of course, this coming weekend, order could be restored with the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, but I find it highly doubtful. Here are the Pix for this week:

#1 Dialed In- Nick Zito has inherited the favorites role with the Florida Derby winner, Dialed In. I still don't think the race was that tremendously impressive, but what can I tell you? Unlike some others this year, Dialed In has actually been working hard up to the Derby. The win in the Holy Bull, the loss to older horses in what was basically a public workout, and the Florida Derby win might have him ready to go come Derby Day.

#2 Santiva- The likely favorite in what will prove to be a bulky field at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes remains the horse I feel is most likely to put forth a tough effort in the Derby. Again, he might not walk off the track wearing the Roses, but I feel confident in saying he will be part of the Superfecta on Derby Day. I am anxious to see how well he does on the Polytrack and how well he reacts after he gets off of it.

#3 The Factor- Bob Baffert's most likely Derby candidate has taken the Arkansas road to Louisville, which has been so successful so many times in the recent past. His win in the Rebel seemed to prove he could get a distance of ground to most observers. I am hoping someone will go with him and prod him along in the Arkansas Derby, so we can see if he can handle being challenged while on the lead.

#4 Toby's Corner- I felt his performance in the Wood Memorial this Saturday was magnificent enough to put him on the list this week. If you get a chance to watch a replay of this race, Toby's Corner was in behind TWO lines of four horses across the track at Aqueduct while on the far turn. He weaved his way through the traffic while full of run and powered past the fading Uncle Mo and the surging Arthur's Tale to win the Wood and make him a candidate for Derby glory.

#5 Uncle Mo- OK, I know he grabbed a quarter at the start of the Wood Memorial and was never really comfortable the whole race. Trainer Todd Pletcher said he had done that in a previous race and it wasn't a problem. So, then why was it a problem on Saturday? Pletcher also said that this was not a short horse for the Wood. I respectfully disagree with that assessment. He completely stopped in the stretch while trying to go farther than he ever went before. The total lack of competition caught up with him in the Wood. While that is that case, I also think he can rebound and still win the Derby.

#6 Archarcharch- You know, if the Kentucky Derby were held today, he wouldn't even have enough graded stakes earnings to make the top twenty. He would have to wait for the Preakness. However, the Derby is not held today, so his connections don't have to be concerned until Saturday. He will run tough again on Saturday, he always does. It will be interesting to see if he can turn the tables on The Factor, especially if The Factor is pressured on the front end.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

A.P. Indy

The end of the line has come for the stud career of one of the greats, A.P. Indy (pictured). He has been pensioned at Lane's End Farm due to apparent infertility. A.P. Indy sired so many wonderful horses during his stud career that one wonders where to start. One of his offspring, Bernardini, won the 2006 Preakness and was the first choice to mate with the great Zenyatta. Unfortunately, the first attempt at impregnating the Grande Dame did not go so well, but there will be a second try, thankfully.

A.P. Indy also sired many other great runners including Pulpit, Stephen Got Even, Aptitude, Friends Lake, Suave, Mineshaft and Old Trieste. His legacy could likely equal that of Storm Cat, another of the great recent Sires. A.P. Indy was the leading North American Sire in 2003 and 2006. I don't think he quite gets into the discussion with Northern Dancer, but then again, who does really?

A.P. Indy was touched by greatness right from the start. His Sire was 1977 Triple Crown winner, Seattle Slew. A.P. Indy was Horse Of The Year and Champion Three-Year-Old Colt in 1992, following his wins in the Santa Anita Derby, Belmont Stakes, and Breeders' Cup Classic. He would probably have won the 1992 Kentucky Derby as well, but as the morning-line favorite, he was scratched on the morning of the race by trainer Neil Drysdale after a foot bruise. While that was unfortunate, it did clear the way for the great Pat Day to get his elusive Derby win with Lil E. Tee. Drysdale would eventually get to the Derby Winner's Circle with Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. For his impressive racing career, A.P. Indy would go to the post eleven times, winning eight and finishing third in one other start. He earned a total of $2,979,815 in purse money.

A.P. Indy now gets to enjoy his dotage and retirement like any great one should, resting and relaxing, hopefully he somehow knows what an impact he had both on and off the racetrack. Here is the link to watch A.P. Indy win the 1992 Breeders' Cup Classic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZnLjV2xVFo. Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of chef-de-race.com

The Grade 1 $1,000,000 Santa Anita Derby

This race lost just a touch of its steam when the horse that would have been the prohibitive favorite, Premier Pegasus, scratched with a fracture and is now completely out of the picture for the 137th Kentucky Derby on May 7. It is a pity this happened, because I thought he would have had a legitimate shot in Louisville, but we must move on. Here is the analysis for the Grade 1 $1,000,000 Santa Anita Derby:

I will go with #9 Anthony's Cross as my top pick in the Santa Anita Derby. He won the Grade 2 Robert E. Lewis at this distance over this racetrack on February 12. He has been away from the races since then, which is troubling, but since the middle of March, he has been working like a house on fire. Joel Rosario was up for the win in the Lewis and will get the call again here. For second place, I will go with #3 Mr. Commons. He scored an Allowance win last time out as a nearly even-money favorite. He is undefeated with Mike Smith aboard and the trainer is John Shirreffs. Does that combo sound familiar to anyone else? He appears to be a generous 8-1 on the morning line in here. The lineage suggests he might be more apt to run well on the turf. Finally, I will go with #10 Bench Points in the third spot. He is 10-1 on the morning line in here. The San Felipe was his first race over six furlongs and he acquitted himself nicely, finishing third. Rafael Bejarano was up for this one's first three wins of his career and he gets the call once again here. Please note that Jaycito was originally selected, but has been scratched. Here is the play for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby:

$5 WP #9
$2 EX BOX 3-9-10
$2 TRI BOX 3-9-10
TOTAL- $34

The blog is currently MINUS $198 for the year. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Fighting Through The Draw

The major prep races for this weekend on the Kentucky Derby trail all had their draws today. The Grade 1 Wood Memorial will feature a field of ten, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby will go one better than that with eleven, and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby will go one better than that and offers a field of twelve.

Of course, the highlight horse of the weekend will be the 2010 Champion Two-Year-Old Colt, Uncle Mo. He drew right in the middle of the bunch in the Wood Memorial, getting the #5 post position. I will be guessing that Uncle Mo will be going off somewhere around 1-5 in the Wood Memorial, given the quality (or apparent lack thereof) of his competition in the race.

The Santa Anita Derby draw was a little more of a story with Jaycito getting stuck all the way outside in post #11. The likely favorite will be Grade 2 San Felipe winner, Premier Pegasus, who got spot #8. The Grade 2 Robert E. Lewis winner, Anthony's Cross, who is unraced since that upset victory, will be starting in post position #9. The Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby winner, the Steve Asmussen-trained Silver Medallion, will be in post #4. Finally, Grade 1 CashCall Futurity winner, Comma To The Top, who will not be going to the Kentucky Derby, is in post #5.

The Illinois Derby gets the 47-1 upset winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, Watch Me Go. Watch Me Go drew post position #4 at Hawthorne. I don't think you will be getting 47-1 on Watch Me Go in Chicago. He has already been installed as the 7-2 morning-line choice. Others of interest in the Illinois Derby include the Al Stall-trainee, Sour at 6-1 in post #6, and El Grayling, who will be breaking from the #10 hole.

There are three very interesting races to watch for those of you interested in the Kentucky Derby field and the way it is shaping up this weekend. Remember, the Derby is now just one month from tomorrow. Tune in again on Friday for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

Well, well, well, wasn't that fun? The Florida Derby went nothing like any of the experts thought it would and certainly didn't go the way I thought it would. Dialed In was the winner, barely escaping the 68-1 longshot, Shackleford, in the process. Soldat ran terrible, he appeared washed out before they even got to the gate, and he will now drop out of the Pix just one week after I catapulted him to the #1 spot. Here is this week's edition of the Super Six Derby Pix:

#1-Uncle Mo- Might finally get a true test of his abilities in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial over the newly-reopened main track at Aqueduct this weekend. His connections are reportedly hoping for a bigger field in the Wood, so he gains some experience in a crowded field, which he will encounter in the Kentucky Derby. I still was not wowed by his Timely Writer win, maybe he can sell me on Saturday.

#2-Dialed In- Didn't love what happened on Sunday in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. He got a decent pace set-up, made his move, and then struggled to get past a 68-1 longshot that dictated that pace and should have folded like a cheap suit. Zito nearly got his elusive third Derby with Ice Box out of the Florida Derby last year with a similar running style. I am hard-pressed to think there will be an episode of deja vu'.

#3-Santiva- Will get his final tune-up before Churchill Downs just up the road at Keeneland, which opens this weekend. The Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes will be run next Saturday, April 16. I must say I am not a fan of going to the synthetic at this stage of the game, but it worked for Street Sense in 2007. Maybe the game plan can succeed again.

#4-Premier Pegasus- We'll see what he is made of in his final prep for Kentucky in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on Saturday afternoon. He has been the leader in the clubhouse on the West Coast since his dominating win in the Grade 2 San Felipe. If he manages to win the Santa Anita Derby, he will be among the favorites in Louisville. If he wins the Santa Anita Derby in the same fashion he won the San Felipe, he might end up being THE favorite, depending on what happens elsewhere, of course.

#5-The Factor- Trainer Bob Baffert has confirmed that the winner of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park will be returning to Arkansas for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on April 16. He worked six furlongs in 1:11 2/5 on Monday morning. I still question whether or not the running style he will be employing will work, but since I was so spot-on in the Florida Derby and the way the clearly played out the way I figured it, that should tell you something.

#6-Archarcharch- I am starting to think of him in the same hard-knocking, all-heart category I have Santiva and had Gourmet Dinner before he bowed out. He won the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn and acquitted himself nicely, running third behind The Factor in the Grade 2 Rebel. I expect him to be there at the end of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, maybe not as the winner, but certainly part of the picture at the end. He always seems to be right there.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Grade 1 $1,000,000 Florida Derby

Sunday will be one of the more presitigious Derby preps of this 2011 season when the Florida Derby is run at Gulfstream Park. It is a very deep field of eight going to the post. It is quite possible that the winner of the Kentucky Derby in five weeks will be participating in this race on Sunday. Here is the analysis:

I have said on this blog that I think Soldat is going to win the Kentucky Derby at this point. I reserve the right, of course, to change that opinion. However, I will pick against him in the Florida Derby by selecting #2 To Honor And Serve as the winner. I think that the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth was just a bit much for a 2011 debut for this Mott trainee and I happen to thik that he will be ready to roll on Sunday. There is a bullet workout on May 27 at Payson Park. I just think he wasn't ready on February 26 and I think he will be ready on Sunday. I will put #1 Soldat in the second spot. He might be able to rate a bit more than he did in the Fountain Of Youth when he just went and kept right on going until he reached the Winner's Circle. Alan Garcia has been money with him so far and the colt is 2 for 2 over the track at Gulfstream Park in 2011. #7 Dialed In will be the third selection in here. He has two wins and a second with Julien Leparoux aboard and I really think the second was merely a tightener. Trainer Nick Zito nearly won that elusive third Kentucky Derby last year with Ice Box. This closer could get him that victory in five weeks. Finally, I will put #8 Flashpoint in the fourth position. I think it is utter folly to run him in here. I certainly don't think his speed will hold up for any type of excessive distance. Hopefully, his connections will be cured of their Derby Fever after Sunday and get this horse ready to sprint this season, where he belongs. Here is the play for the Grade 1 $1,000,000 Florida Derby:

$2 EX BOX 1-2-7
$2 TRI BOX 1-2-7
TOTAL- $24

The blog is currently MINUS $174 for 2011. However, we will keep plugging away. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Welcome Woodbine

Saturday afternoon will be a very important one in The Great White North as the McKenzie Brothers used to call it. Woodbine returns to Thoroughbred racing starting on Saturday. I think it is some of the finest racing on the entire continent. You get high-quality racing over two excellent racing surfaces (Woodbine's Polytrack is among the very best and the E.P. Taylor Turf Course ranks highly as well). The simulcast signal is tops as well. The presentation is always eye-catching, the analysts are extremely informative, and of course, you get the race calls of Dan Loiselle. I consider Dan one of the very best (if not THE very best) track announcers in all of North America.

The featured event on the Opening Day card is the aptly-named $100,000 Debut Stakes. The season will last 167 days in all, running until Closing Day, which is Sunday, December 4. The highlight event of the early part of the season will be the 152nd running of the Queen's Plate, the first jewel in the Canadian Triple Crown. The Queen's Plate is scheduled to be run on June 26. You might remember that the 2010 winner, Big Red Mike, was selected on this very blog. Woodbine also host the third leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, the Breeders' Stakes, which is run at 1 1/2 miles on the E.P. Taylor Turf Course. The 2010 winner was Miami Deco, who until that race, had been a maiden. The Breeders' Stakes is scheduled for August 7.

Tune in again on Friday for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

The Kentucky Derby is now less that forty days away. It is hard to believe, but that is certainly the case. The preps from this past weekend produced some upset winners, especially in the Louisiana and Sunland Derbies. The main headline this coming weekend will be the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Sunday. That race is expected to produce several horses that will be in the gate come the First Saturday In May. Here are the Pix:

#1- Soldat- I know I am being premature with this move to the #1 spot for the Fountain Of Youth winner. I know he will not be allowed to get the easy lead he seemed to have in that earlier race in the Florida Derby. I just honestly think that this horse is now the best of the three-year-old crop and I also honestly think he will be wearing the garland of roses come May 7. Do keep in mind that I have been wrong about this every year since 1994, but that is my opinion.


#2- Uncle Mo- Well, I have stated already here that I was wholly unimpressed with the Timely Writer, be it the competition, the race itself, and even the champion's performance. That being said, no one has beaten him yet and the last time the Breeders' Cup Juvenile was run at Churchill Downs, the winner came back to win the Derby six months later off of two less than stellar preps. History might be poised to repeat itself.


#3- Dialed In- The Nick Zito trainee had absolutely no pace to run at in his last race and it showed as he was unable to close into the dawdling fractions and finished second. I think we can safely say that he will get a pace in the Florida Derby and in the Kentucky Derby both. If the pace in either race is blistering, he will certainly be a horse to reckon with when they turn for home in Louisville.


#4- Santiva- I really think he is improving his form the closer we get to the First Saturday In May. Once again, I am less than crazy about the move to Keeneland to run in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes as the final prep over the polytrack in Kentucky. However, this horse might have more grit than anyone else on any of these Derby Contender lists and that will certainly matter come May 7. I fully expect him to be a part of any Superfecta in the Kentucky Derby.


#5- Premier Pegasus- The West Coast's best of the bunch right now. His next start is expected to be as the prohibitive favorite in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 9. His Sire, Fusaichi Pegasus, won the Derby in 2000. He crushed the field in the Grade 2 San Felipe on March 12 by nearly eight lengths. It remains the standard by which all other Derby prep performances need to be measured so far this spring.


#6- The Factor- I am really still not sold on the Bob Baffert representative, but there is the fact that Baffert certainly knows what is necessary to get a horse ready for the Triple Crown. His speed will likely be compromised on Derby Day, but the great Laz Barrera won not just a Derby, but also a Belmont with speedster Bold Forbes in 1976. If anyone is going to steal this Kentucky Derby, it just might be Bob Baffert.


Tune in again on Thursday for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Grade 3 $500,000 Vinery Racing Spiral

There are three major Kentucky Derby preps this weekend, including the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and the Grade 3 Sunland Derby. I have elected, though, to tackle the Grade 3 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes over the Polytrack at Turfway Park. Here is the analysis:

I find it very hard to locate anyone in this field that can beat #2 Positive Response. He won the John Battaglia Memorial by seven lengths over the track on March 5 and did not humiliate himself in his last graded effort, the Grade 3 El Camino Real at Golden Gate, where he finished third. He worked a solid five furlongs on March 20, covering the length in 1:01.4. Going forward, of course, might be an issue since he has never raced on a true dirt surface, but worry about that later. I will put #10 Decisive Moment second. His last try in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds was OK. He set the pace and ended up fifth, within six lengths of Mucho Macho Man and Santiva, two horses that are currently part of the Super Six Derby Pix. He ran second behind Gourmet Dinner in the Delta Jackpot in November and while Gourmet Dinner is now out, he is still a strong horse to be in company with. #4 Animal Kingdom goes third in here after a bullet turf workout on March 21 and a second over the turf at Gulfstream Park in his 2011 debut. Trainer Graham Motion is very strong with horses making their second start off a layoff and this horse did get his only win in his only previous Polytrack start, at Keeneland last fall. Alan Garcia will ride. Finally, I will put #3 Thirtyfirststreet in the fourth spot. He ran past some tiring rivals to finish fourth in the Robert E. Lewis at Santa Anita and while he was no match for the winner, Anthony's Cross, keep in mind that Anthony's Cross is not here. His Beyers translate well into a contending position here and his last seven furlong work on March 18 was very speedy. Here is the play for the Grade 3 Vinery Racing Spiral:

$10 WP #2
$2 EX #2 with ALL
$1 EX ALL with #2
TOTAL- $53

We caught a bit of a break with last week's play in the Rebel Stakes with the scratch of Alternation at the gate. The play only cost $19 and drops the blog to a MINUS $121 for the year. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

While The Factor was dazzling in going all the way in the Rebel Stakes this past weekend at Oaklawn Park, I am still not convinced he can go 1 1/4 miles on the First Saturday In May. I will readily admit I was wrong about his ability to get 1 1/16 miles last weekend, but that still doesn't mean he can get that extra 3/16 of a mile when it really counts. That being said, we move on to this week's edition of the Super Six Derby Pix:

#1- Uncle Mo- Again, I didn't find his Timely Writer win that demoralizing to the rest of the Derby contingent. He is supposed to be heading to the Wood Memorial to run in owner Mike Repole's home area. Should he go in the Wood and win, he would be undefeated, but only have five starts and only two of those around two turns. Is that enough of a resume' to install as the heavy favorite he will be? We'll see.

#2- Dialed In- Worked out this morning at Palm Meadows and went four furlongs in 47.55 seconds, including a final furlong of 11.04 seconds, at least on trainer Nick Zito's watch. He will be the favorite for the Florida Derby on April 3. However, he will face some tough stuff at Gulfstream that day, including the Fountain Of Youth winner, Soldat. Again, the experience factor will be crucial for this one. He will only have four starts behind him when he enters the gate at Churchill Downs, provided there is not another prep following the Florida Derby.

#3- Santiva- He has been my "under the radar" horse for Derby Day since his gritty win over Astrology in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs last fall. We'll see how Astrology does this weekend in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby in New Mexico. Santiva will have more starts on Derby Day than the first two, but he has won only that one race. I admire his tenacity, but winning matters more than determination when it comes down to brass tacks.

#4- Soldat- You want a resume', this guy has a resume'. He has been to the track seven times already in his career and has been first or second in all seven of them. He has more varied distances than the first three and more varied surfaces, having proven he excels now on both turf and dirt. Last week, I compared him to Barbaro. I still think that is an apt desciption, maybe he is the one to complete what Barbaro couldn't. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin needs that elusive Derby win for his record, just like Todd Pletcher needed it last year.

#5- Premier Pegasus- Likely is the best of what has proven to be a very weak crop of West Coast Derby contenders. I couldn't have been more impressed with his win in the San Felipe and based on that win, he should be the heavy choice in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 9. Others likely to be in that field include Anthony's Cross, Comma To The Top, and Silver Medallion. None of those tickle my fancy when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, at least not yet.

#6- Mucho Macho Man- He didn't frighten anyone away from the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby this weekend at Fair Grounds. There will be twelve other runners in the gate with him as he tries to complete the Risen Star-Louisiana Derby Double. He got drilled by Dialed In once already this season in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, which prompted the move to Louisiana. Should he win the Louisiana Derby, he will have three wins in eight starts for his career thus far. He also will be trying to become just the third horse since 1924 to win the Louisiana Derby and then pick up the win in the Kentucky Derby.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Dubai Doings

I know I promised the Super Six Derby Pix today, however, the draw for the Dubai World Cup and all those other wonderful races at Meydan was conducted today and my friend, Pat Cummings, was on hand for the proceedings.

His website, http://www.dubairacenight.com/, has all the information as well as some excellent video interviews with some of the racing personalities you will be seeing (and wagering) on Saturday morning. Check it out and enjoy all the races from Meydan this weekend.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

Carry Back

One of the more famous Kentucky Derbies of the 1960s came fairly early in the decade in 1961 when a horse that always came from far back named Carry Back (pictured) ran down Crozier to win the Roses. Carry Back was certainly "The People's Horse" in 1961. He went off as the favorite on Derby Day under jockey Johnny Sellers. Carry Back was Sired by Saggy and was out of Joppy, which one writer said wouldn't, "produce anything faster than a jalopy". Well, that writer was right for the first half of most races. However, in the latter stages of those races, Carry Back was plenty fast.

Crozier was no slouch either. He was the second choice of the bettors and was owned by Fred Hooper. Hooper had already been in the Kentucky Derby Winner's Circle once before with Hoop Jr. in 1945. After that race, winning jockey Eddie Arcaro told Hooper that is was the most expensive race he would ever win because he would spend the rest of his life trying to win it again. Crozier would be Hooper's best chance at getting that second helping of Derby glory.

Carry Back went the eastern route to Louisville. He ran third in the Fountain Of Youth, won the Flamingo and Florida Derby, and ran second in the Wood Memorial. In the Kentucky Derby itself, Carry Back was so far behind as the horses entered the stretch that you can hear the race caller on the video say, "Carry Back is too far back to make it unless he hurries." Well, it was right at that time that Carry Back started to hurry. Crozier had taken the lead from pacesetting Four And Twenty and Globemaster and appeared headed for Fred Hooper's elusive second Derby win. Carry Back continued to wear down Crozier through the stretch and not only made up a tremendous amount of ground, he went on to win by nearly a length. It was a performance that would forever put Carry Back into Kentucky Derby legend.

Carry Back would go on to win the Preakness at Pimlico as well. He would become just one of the many horses to have accomplished two links of the Triple Crown, but fall short in the third. He ran seventh in New York, finishing behind Sherluck, who had finished behind Carry Back in both the Derby and the Preakness. Carry Back would run 61 times in his career, winning 21, finishing second in 11 and third in 11. He totalled $1,241,165 in earnings for his career. Of course, he was voted Champion Three-Year-Old Colt in 1961 and he was elected to the U.S. Horse Racing Hall Of Fame in 1975. Calder still runs the Carry Back Stakes every year at six furlongs in his honor.

Here is a link to watch Carry Back's dramatic victory in the 1961 Kentucky Derby: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/history/year/1961. Tune in again on Wednesday for a new edition of the Super Six Derby Pix. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of horseracingnation.com

The Grade 2 $300,000 Rebel Stakes

The second step in the triumvirate of Derby prep races in Arkansas (Southwest, Rebel, Ark. Derby) takes place on Saturday with the Grade 2 $300,000 Rebel Stakes. It actually follows what promises to be an outstanding version of the Grade 3 Azeri with Blind Luck and Havre De Grace continuing what is currently the best rivalry in racing. Thirteen horses entered the Rebel for Saturday, but I believe there are going to be a couple of scratches after listening to "At The Races with Steve Byk" today. Nevertheless, we press on with the analysis:


I will put the California "invader", #5 JP's Gusto, in the top spot for this one. He ran second after a bit of a troubled trip in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, finishing behind Archarcharch. This will be his second start of 2011 and he comes in off of a five furlong bullet work of 59 2/5 seconds on March 13 over this track. Ramon Dominguez will likely be itching to get another Derby ride after what happened with Brethren last weekend in Tampa Bay. I will go with #9 Sway Away in the place position with Garrett Gomez getting aboard once again. Gomez was up for the second in the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita last time out on February 20, when this horse narrowly lost to The Factor (who I will get to in a moment). You want a fast workout? How about seven furlongs in 1:23 3/5? That's not fast, that's ridiculous. The Sire, Afleet Alex, should have won the Triple Crown in 2005. We will have to see about Sway Away. The longshot I like in here, #2 Alternation, will go third. This colt is one of two Donnie Von Hemel trainees in this race and he is undefeated when paired with Luis Quinonez. Of course, this is the first step up to the bigtime, but he is 2 for 2 at Oaklawn Park this meeting. The 12-1 morning line certainly doesn't hurt either. Finally, we come to #6 The Factor. I think he is clearly the fastest horse in the race. I also just as clearly don't think he can go this far. There really isn't anything in the pedigree to suggest the distances he will be facing if he continues forward on the Road To The Roses. I know, Bob Baffert can be a miracle worker. This one might just take Edmund Gwenn in his Santa Claus suit and moving the race to Macy's on 34th Street to make me a believer. Here is the play for the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes:

$5 WPS #5
$2 EX BOX 2-5-9
$2 TRI BOX 2-5-9
TOTAL- $39

The blog is clearly taking on water after a couple of weeks of hitting nothing (and not liking it). Right now, we are MINUS $102 for the year. Therefore, we really need to get a winner here. Remember, They Are Off does not accept any responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

What a weekend we just had!!! Uncle Mo made his long-awaited comeback race in the ungraded Timely Writer at Gulfstream and won handily. Brethren disappointed (or rather his rider disappointed) in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Premier Pegasus wasn't even part of the Derby Future Wager this past weekend (at least not on an individual basis) and he dusted the field in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita. How does all that shake out when we put it into the Super Six Derby Pix?

#1-Uncle Mo- Yes, he won in the Timely Writer and yes, he won by a comfortable margin. However, I really wasn't dazzled by the performance. I am interested to see what happens the next time he goes two turns, which will be the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 9. Keep in mind that this is still a relatively lightly-raced horse and that normally doesn't translate too well on Derby Day.

#2-Dialed In- Finally suffered a defeat in that allowance race on March 8 which was a prep for the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Granted he lost to his stablemate from the Zito barn, but the pace was sluggish and that compromised his "one big run" style since there was no pace to chase. Another thing to remember is that the Florida Derby is a week before the other big preps. The Florida Derby is scheduled for April 3, a full six days before other preps and an extra week out from the Kentucky Derby.

#3-Santiva- I am depressed with the decision that has been made by the connections here to go run on the Polytrack at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes for his last prep race before the Derby. The only thing I like about it is that the Blue Grass is actually a week later than the Wood on April 16. I think that is better spacing before the Derby on May 7, but I would prefer the final prep be on a surface similar to what he'll face in Louisville. He did run 2nd in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last fall and then went to Churchill and won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. Maybe they are thinking history will repeat itself.

#4-Soldat- Off of his big win in the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth, he will part of what promises to be a very entertaining version of the Florida Derby on April 3. Does anyone else get reminded of Barbaro when looking at this horses past performances? Barbaro had the turf success before his crushing Derby score and appeared to be just as versatile as this guy appears to be. I still think that the turf will be where he really excels, but Barbaro did win the Derby after all and he could have been a turf ace too, given the chance.

#5-Premier Pegasus- Well, well, the West Coast finally has a legitimate Derby horse this season. It had been noted in an earlier version of the Super Six Derby Pix that not one West Coast horse was listed. That was because none merited consideration. That is no longer the case. His smashing win in the Grade 2 San Felipe did come against a pace that was suicidal and ridiculous. However, he still dusted Jaycito into the ground and he is poised to be the favorite in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 9.

#6-Mucho Macho Man- Will benefit greatly from the decision to get Santiva out of Louisiana and will likely be one of the main favorites for the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 26. I would hope that they try to get one other prep race in before the Derby being that far out, but it is highly unlikely that is in the plans. His overall resume' is probably the weakest of anyone on this list, but he still deserves a spot until someone comes among and knocks him out of it.

Tune in again this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

BRAVO!!!

I would like to take this opportunity to say BRAVO!!! to John Shear, who is employed as a guard in the paddock at Santa Anita Park. Shear's job is normally to extend a rope to close off the opening in the paddock's walking ring. However, on Saturday, Shear went above and beyond his normal duties to save a situation that could have been a near-catastrophe. According to the report on espn.com, Shear put himself into harm's way when Sea And Sage broke loose in the paddock and headed straight for the opening Shear closes off. There was a young girl directly in the path of the loose horse and Shear inserted himself as protection for the girl and the horse collided with Shear instead of the girl, who was estimated to be around three or four years old.

Thankfully, Shear never lost consciousness and after receiving first aid on the scene was sent to a hospital in Pasadena for further evaluation. Shear was listed as stable on Sunday and appeared to be none the worse for wear. The girl was completely unharmed in the incident. Sea And Sage was brought back to the barn of trainer Gary Mandella was was also unharmed.

One little point I forgot to mention in this whole story is that John Shear is 90 years old. Yes, that's right 90!!! John Shear is also a former jockey and any jockey, former or otherwise, is one tough cookie. So, John Shear is a hero in every sense of the word. If you see him at Santa Anita at any time in the near future, be sure to tell him so. The girl's parents made sure to let the track know he was, it is certainly the least any of us could do. BRAVO John Shear!!!

Tune in again tomorrow from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Grade 2 $300,000 Gulfstream Park Handicap

There are, of course, important preps for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday afternoon. The Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs features another effort by Brethren, who won the prep for it with his victory in the Sam F. Davis. The Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park features the return of Uncle Mo, winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, I have selected another Gulfstream race to handicap for the blog, the Grade 2 $300,000 Gulfstream Park Handicap. Here is the analysis:

I think this race shapes up as a speedfest. For that reason, I will select a horse I expect to be travelling slightly off the pace, #6 Tizway. Tizway will be making his return to the races in this spot with Rajiv Maragh aboard. His last performance was a fifth in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Churchill Downs. His last workout on March 5 was a speedy one, going a half-mile in 49 seconds flat. For second, I will go with the favorite, #7 Soaring Empire. He has a win and a second in two graded starts at Gulfstream Park this meeting, finishing behind Tackleberry in one of them. He has a bullet work on February 28 and is extremely well-bred with Sire Empire Maker and A.P. Indy on the Dam side. I will put #1 Rule in third position. He is winless thus far in three tries at Gulfstream Park this meeting, although he posted Beyers in the 100s in the last two of those. John Velazquez will be aboard for trainer Todd Pletcher. I just refuse to leave #3 Tackleberry out of a position here. He has won the last two at Gulfstream Park at a furlong less and a furlong more than this try at one mile. He has been ignored in both of those tries and I would be loathe to do that again here. Here is the play for the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap:

$5 WP #6
$2 EX 6-7 with 1-2-3-6-7
$1 TRI 6-7 with 6-7 with 1-2-3
TOTAL- $32

Right now, the blog is MINUS $70 for the year, so we are in need of a victory on Saturday. As always, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

This is actually a crucial weekend coming up for some of the top Kentucky Derby contenders. Uncle Mo will make his highly anticipated return to the racetrack in the Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park, facing five rivals. Brethren, the winner of the Sam F. Davis, tries to complete the Tampa Bay Double with a win in the Tampa Bay Derby. It promises to be a position-altering Saturday, March 12 for the Super Six Derby Pix.

#1-Uncle Mo- OK, now we get to finally see what we have got here. Do we still have the phenomenon that crushed the field in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in November or do we have a horse that peaked too early and now must make up ground on the Road To The Derby? While I think going one mile for the return is a smart enough idea, the one-turn mile might not help his limited experience dealing with two-turn races.

#2-Dialed In- Yes, I know he lost to his Zito stablemate on Sunday at Gulfstream Park in his tune-up for the Florida Derby. However, several things worked against Dialed In that day. There was absolutely zero pace in that pace, which stunted his ability to make that one big run he made to win the Holy Bull. He also had to be much closer to the lead as a result of that first problem, which became problem number two. I think that Sunday race at Gulfstream was just a glorified workout for Dialed In and I think confidence should still be high in his camp.

#3-Brethren- The full-brother to 2010 Derby winner, Super Saver, gets another chance to impress in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby this Saturday, where he will be the overwhelming favorite. Uncle Mo was entered, but we all know he is going in the Timely Writer a little further south in Florida. Too Experience, who was the runner-up at 31-1 in the Davis, is back for another try with Brethren. The one flaw in that earlier performance was the lack of decent competition for him. That might be turning into a trend after Saturday.

#4-Santiva- I will compare this horse to another member of the 2011 Derby fraternity, Gourmet Dinner. Both always seem to be there at the finish and both always seem to give you a completely gut-wrenching effort, making sure they do all they can to win. They are both very reminiscent of Hard Spun, runner-up to Street Sense in the 2007 Derby, who always had more fortitude than anyone else on the racetrack. Can Santiva or Gourmet Dinner win the Derby? I am not sure about that yet, but I can feel certain that one or both will be underneath in the exotics.

#5-Soldat- Still earns his position in the Pix based on his impressive win in the Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream Park, turning the long-awaited return of To Honor And Serve into The Soldat Show. I still think his future lies on the greenery, but while the connections are currently nursing a case of Derby Fever, why not go for it full throttle? He has never been worse than second in seven starts and I like that experience factor for him as well. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has a Belmont win on his resume' with Jazil in 2006, but no Derby win yet.

#6-Stay Thirsty- His win in the Gotham last week was not the most impressive thing ever, but it certainly gets him in the discussion. His connections are the same as Uncle Mo's with owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher. Is he another in the long line of "second-stringers" that come into the Derby under the radar of a more fancied stablemate that ends up winning the Roses? Cannonade won while Judger did not in 1974, Thunder Gulch won while Timber Country and Serena's Song did not in 2995, and Real Quiet won while Indian Charlie did not in 1998.

Tune in again for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Wagering Weekend

Several weeks ago on this blog I wrote a piece titled "Call Me Ismael" where I documented my failures with the Pick Five wager at Turf Paradise at various junctures throughout the season. I detailed how close I had come to hitting the wager and compared myself to Captain Ahab and the Pick Five to Moby Dick. I also made a point of stating at the end of that article that I intended to hit the Pick Five before the end of the current season at Turf Paradise and that I didn't care whether the ticket paid $40 or $4,000.

Well, readers, today was finally the day. I hit the Pick Five wager at Turf Paradise for the first time on a $54 ticket for a total of $475. Believe me, it was an incredibly satisfying feeling for me. That satisfaction was heightened by the fact that a friend of mine visited the track today from California along with a friend of his and after I advised them of the carryover entering the day, they also hit the Pick Five with the help of my selections. It was a rare day of handicapping prowess for me since my top pick won six of the nine races on the card and my second selection won the other three. I can attest to the fact that this has never happened before.

Today came on the heels of an exciting Sunday that was created by the NHC Tour free handicapping tournament which awarded trips to the 2012 National Handicapping Championships to the first four finishers. For a fleeting few minutes, I was on my way to Las Vegas on Sunday. I correctly selected the winners of three of the first four contest races and was sitting in a tie for second place at that point of the contest. Unfortunately, I only managed a pair of decent priced seconds in the remaining races, but I still managed to finish a respectable T-209th in the contest with just over $55 in earnings from my picks. That was certainly a far cry from the brutal bagel I went through in the first free contest of the year, which I documented in another earlier blog piece titled "Behind The Bagel".

All in all, it was an excellent weekend handicapping-wise and wallet-wise as well. I am certainly encouraged by the last few days and hope to build on this success going forward. Tune in again tomorrow for the Super Six Derby Pix from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE.

The Grade 1 $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap

The 74th edition of the Big 'Cap takes place at Santa Anita on Saturday afternoon as part of a wonderful program that also includes the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile and Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. However, the Santa Anita Handicap is the featured event on the program and the feature features a strong field of eleven going postward led by the 4-5 morning line favorite, Twirling Candy. Here is the analysis:

Needless to say, I am going to try and beat the 4-5 favorite in here and I will attempt to do that with #3 Gladding, who could very well go right to the front and steal this race on the front end. I really don't see much else in here that will be a competitive speed position with this horse. He could do exactly what he did in the Grade 2 San Antonio, when he took the lead, set the pace, and went all the way in front. He beat several others in this field in doing so. The Sire is 2002 Belmont Stakes winner, Sarava. For second, I will go with #5 Twirling Candy, although I loathe the 4-5 odds on a horse that has yet to go this distance. I know he was awesome in winning the Grade 2 Strub at 1 1/8 miles last time out on February 5, but his lone loss came at that distance as well. Of course, that was over the cushion track at Hollywood in the Grade 1 Goodwood, so it was a different surface, but if there any doubts at all on a 4-5 shot, I think you have to look elsewhere. The horse that might be poised for a very big effort on Saturday is #10 Aggie Engineer. Joe Talamo has never missed the money in seven career pairings with this gelding, winning three of those races. He is also 7 for 8 in the top three at Santa Anita, again most of those efforts coming when the track was synthetic. The February works are very strong here, so Aggie Engineer could be peaking at the right time. Bob Baffert is entering four different horses in the Big 'Cap and the price to like in this race is his with #9 Tweebster at 15-1. He was second to Twirling Candy in the Strub and also race second behind Indian Firewater in the Grade 2 San Fernando. Mike Smith will be aboard and I think this one can really outrun his odds in this spot. Here is the play for the Grade 1 $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap:

$5 WP #3
$1 EX 3-5 with 3-5-8-9-10
$1 TRI 3-5 with 3-5 with 1-8-9-10
TOTAL- $26

The Fountain Of Youth was a complete wash last weekend, so the blog currently sits at a disappointing MINUS $44 for the year. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

Even with the one-day delay to recognize the accomplishment of Vicky Baze at Turf Paradise on Tuesday, the Super Six Derby Pix cannot be stopped. Here is this week's list:

#1-Uncle Mo- He was nominated by trainer Todd Pletcher to the Timely Writer to be run on March 12, along with twelve other horses, including Travelin Man, who finished well behind Flashpoint in the Hutcheson last weekend. There was a total of 36 nominations for the race, but one gets the impression that Pletcher REALLY wants this race to go, so Mo can get on the Road To The Roses. I still find in unsettling that the connections are passing on the Tampa Bay Derby the same day, when that was their original choice to begin with.

#2-Dialed In- Also nominated to the Timely Writer, but more likely to run in the Florida Derby. The Florida Derby won't be run until April 3, which means it will be 63 days between races for this Nick Zito trainee if he doesn't go in the Timely Writer. It also means this horse will be tremendously inexperienced leading into the Derby with only two starts in 2011. I know that seems to be the way most people want to go these days, but that strategy doesn't fit every horse.

#3-Brethren- This horse, in all honesty, should probably be at the top of this list, but again, I would be anxious to see where he would go following the Tampa Bay Derby. If he runs the same race he ran in the Sam F. Davis, he should be 2 for 2 in 2011. It was maybe the best race run by a three-year-old around two turns this year, to the naked eye. However, the Beyer number was unimpressive, as was the field. We are still nine weeks away from Louisville, but this brother of Super Saver might be the favorite to make it two straight for WinStar and Todd Pletcher.

#4-Santiva- Santiva continues to make steady progress up this list. He was all heart and desire in the Risen Star and is now listed in the Derby Watch as likely for the Louisiana Derby or the Blue Grass Stakes next. I would hope the connections would stay on the dirt and run at Fair Grounds. His speed did improve considerably in the Risen Star off his efforts last year, but he did not win. The best reason I can come up with is that he was parked outside of Mucho Macho Man all the way around the racetrack and the trip cost him.

#5-Soldat- Yes, his performance in the Fountain Of Youth this past weekend was excellent. I know I also said last week that the pace might be lacking in the Kentucky Derby this year. There is no question this horse will be part of the pace if Saturday is any indication. However, you have to think that someone is going to go with him, don't you? It is possible he could run a War Emblem-style front-running race in the Derby. It is also possible that he packs it in at the quarter pole and runs 14th or worse after getting some pressure. I still think this horse will end up on the turf later this year, a la Paddy O'Prado in 2010.

#6-To Honor And Serve- No horse was more disappointing this past week than this one. He was only the second choice in his return to racing following the long layoff after the Remsen win, but he was clearly a short horse. He was no match for Soldat, a horse I don't think is as good as this one (even though he is just ahead on this list). Trainer Bill Mott has never won the Kentucky Derby, this might be his best shot to get the Roses. The first step was a rocky one, but I still expect this horse to come back now that he is racing and training in full force.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Viva Vicky!

Normally, Tuesday is the day for the Super Six Derby Pix here at They Are Off. However, today at Turf Paradise featured a milestone victory for one of our riders. It just so happens to be one of the female jockeys I featured in the "Here's To The Ladies" post last week. Vicky Baze collected win number 2,000 in the Tuesday finale at Turf Paradise aboard Decarchy Park, who was the favorite in the maiden event. Vicky positioned Decarchy Park nicely just behind the pacesetting longshot Vegas Tushy during the early stages of the race and made her move on the far turn to sweep to the lead she never relinquished. It was a textbook victory for an excellent rider and certainly worthy of being the milestone score. Ironic isn't it, that Baze collects her 2,000th win aboard a horse that collected her first win at the same time. Anyway, a very hearty congratulations to Vicky Baze on winning 2,000 races in her proud career!!! Here's hoping there will be many, many more.

Tune in again tomorrow when They Are Off returns with the Super Six Derby Pix for this week. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Grade 2 $400,000 Fountain Of Youth Stakes

Kentucky Derby season is now in full swing at racetracks across the country. Gulfstream Park re-enters the spotlight on Saturday with the Grade 2 $400,000 Fountain Of Youth Stakes. The Fountain Of Youth features a field of eight going 1 1/8 miles. The two top contestants are the winner of the Grade 2 Remsen last November at Aqueduct, To Honor And Serve, and the runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf in November, Soldat. Here is the analysis:

Of course, in the never-ending pursuit of a price pick to find in any race, I am attracted to #8 Shackleford in the Fountain Of Youth at 8-1 on the morning line. He defeated a couple of the horse he will face in the Saturday race the last time he raced, which was at this distance at Gulfstream on February 5. Hopefully, Jesus Castanon will get the pace scenario he needs here with Soldat at To Honor And Serve burning each out, maybe helped to that end by Bowman's Causeway. The distance should not be a question moving forward for this Dale Romans trainee with both Storm Cat and Unbridled in the lineage. #1 Soldat is my second choice here since his last race was much more recent than To Honor And Serve. He posted a shattering Beyer Speed Figure of 103 in his 2011 debut over a sloppy track at Gulfstream on January 21. Ironically, I believe that was the race that Dialed In scratched out of because of the wet surface to run in the Grade 3 Holy Bull. Would Dialed In be such a Derby favorite right now had he faced Soldat that day? It is an interesting question. Soldat has never been worse that second in six lifetime starts. #7 To Honor And Serve will be my third selection mainly because this will be his first race since that win in the Remsen. The date of that race was November 27, so Saturday will be just one day short of three full months since his last effort. That is a long layoff since your last race, I don't care whether you are a potential superstar or not. He did post a bullet workout on February 20 at Payson Park, covering four furlongs in 48 and 1/5 seconds. I will wrap up the top four with #4 Casper's Touch. He ran second to the top pick in that race on February 5 at Saturday's distance. You will note, however, that Julien Leparoux elected to ride Bowman's Causeway instead in this race. He gets Alex Solis at the controls here, so there won't be any drop-off in rider quality for sure. I think it is worth noting that Casper's Touch started racing at Keeneland last April, which is the earliest debut of any of these horses in this field. Here is the play for the Grade 2 $400,000 Fountain Of Youth Stakes:

$5 WPS #8
$2 EX 8 with 1-2-4-7 and 1-2-4-7 with 8
TOTAL- $31

Last weekend, They Are Off did hit the exacta on the Phoenix Gold Cup, so the total for the blog so far in 2011 is MINUS $13. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Here's To The Ladies

Ry Eikleberry is going to be the leading rider at Turf Paradise for the 2010-2011 season. That much already seems certain. Through February 23, Eikleberry has 104 victories from 553 starters for a win percentage of 19%. One thing about the rider colony that resides beneath Eikleberry in the standings is the proliferation of excellent women riders that Turf Paradise has produced this season.

Anne Von Rosen is currently the leading female rider at the meeting with 57 winners from 299 starters, which matches Eikleberry's win percentage at 19%. Von Rosen has been part of a dynamic duo when paired with leading trainer Mike Chambers. It seems that every time Von Rosen and Chambers pair up, the results are either a win or a very competitive performance from the horse. Lori Keith has been winning races in bunches lately for the trainers she works for. Right now, she sits second on the ladies' ladder with 41 winners from 192 mounts. Those of you with a calculator will realize that gives her a win percentage of 21%, better than either Von Rosen or Eikleberry.

We could be looking at a milestone moment coming very soon to Turf Paradise for one of our women riders. Vicky Baze currently stands just four winners from 2,000 for her fine career. For 2010-2011, Baze has 35 winners and is third behind Von Rosen and Keith for leading lady honors. Kristina Kenney was having an outstanding season before being sidelined after winning 33 races this year. Of course, Kenney will have more something more important to worry about than getting into the Winner's Circle once her own milestone moment (and blessed event) occurs later this year. Congratulations Kristina!!!

Tammi Piermarini was a late addition to the colony at Turf Paradise, but in the same way that Anne Von Rosen and Mike Chambers have been a tough team, you can also say that about Piermarini and trainer Burton Sipp. They are very hard to overcome if they have some good horse flesh to work with. There is even an apprentice to keep your eyes on when it comes to the Turf Paradise female jockey set. Megan Fadlovich has been drawing rave reviews from many members of the public at Turf and she has earned those laurels. While she has only won ten races, she has a very strong in-the-money percentage of 27% from her 153 starters so far.

By and large, the profession of being a jockey is still one that is dominated by the boys. However, the ladies are certainly staking their claim at Turf Paradise and the racing action is much the better for it.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

There were only two true Kentucky Derby prep races this weekend, the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. Mucho Macho Man won the New Orleans race and Archarcharch won the Hot Springs race. With a paucity of action, you would think there would not be much change to the Super Six Derby Pix from last week, but you might want to reconsider that opinion as you read on:

#1- Uncle Mo- There are some who are souring on the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Champion Two-Year-Old Colt from 2010. His connections have announced a preference for the an overnight stakes race at Gulfstream over the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 12 as his comeback race. The Timely Writer is a one-turn mile with a $100,000 purse. Clearly, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner has enough graded earnings in the bank to pick his spots, but what does it say about him that his connections are rebuffing the tougher spot?

#2- Dialed In- The win by Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star really flattered this Nick Zito trainee because of the easy way he dusted Mucho Macho Man (and everybody else for that matter) in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream on January 30. His running style might be suitable to the Derby as well with that big come-from-behind burst, but try to think of where the speed might be? Just exactly what pace is he going to have to run at in Louisville?

#3- To Honor And Serve- Circumstances have downgraded him one spot in the Pix this week. However, he posted a bullet workout on Monday at Payson Park, covering four furlongs in a sterling 48.20 seconds. It seems a fitting final preparation for his long-awaited return to the races in the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth on Saturday. That is his supposed next start for trainer Bill Mott, who is still looking for that elusive first Derby winner.

#4- Brethren- Todd Pletcher got his elusive first Derby winner last year with WinStar's Super Saver. Well, this is his full brother and he was certainly full of run in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Derby. He put himself square in the Derby picture with that dominating performance. His next schedule race is the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. Is his presence in there keeping Uncle Mo away? I doubt it, but it would have been nice to have that showdown to look forward to, wouldn't it?

#5- Santiva- I know he ran second to Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star. However, he was wider than Mucho Macho Man all the way around the racetrack and he still showed the guts and determination I have been harping on since I made him one of my "Three To Watch in 2011". His next possible run is in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 26. I certainly hope that will not be his final race before the Derby. I can really picture him gritting out a quality race in the Kentucky Derby, if he gets that far. Will he win? Maybe and maybe not, but I am sure you will get his best effort.

#6- Mucho Macho Man- He was impressive in victory in the Risen Star this weekend and I know I have the horse he beat ahead of him, but that is mainly because I have been high on Santiva for a while and it is not like he absolutely crushed him in New Orleans. He is certainly the most experienced horse of any on this list with seven starts, but just two wins in those races and one of those was this weekend. He, too, is listed as possible for the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby next.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The $75,000 Phoenix Gold Cup

I am going to do something I rarely take the opportunity to do on the blog and play a home game on Saturday afternoon. The $75,000 Phoenix Gold Cup is one of the highlight events of the 156-day season at Turf Paradise, my home track, and with a competitive field of thirteen, including the defending champion and runner-up (both at long odds), and two horses a combined 10 for 11 over the surface, I think it is worth a look. I should mention one thing about that surface on Saturday. We are expecting rain in the Phoenix area all day on Saturday, so the track might come up muddy or sloppy. Here is the analysis:

Even with a field of thirteen for the Phoenix Gold Cup, I am hard-pressed to find a real likable longshot. My top choice is #11 Stephengothisstar. He finished second at one mile last out at Sunland Park on January 30. That ended a nice five-race win streak he had cobbled together dating back to a try in September at Remington Park in Oklahoma. His style might also work in case there is a lot of speed in this race, since he appears to like to lay just off the pace. For second, I will go right to the inside of the top pick and #10 Point Attended. One thing you have to say about Point Attended is that he REALLY likes Turf Paradise. He is a perfect 5 for 5 over the racetrack. The latest win came with a nice turn of foot in the $25,000 Swift Stakes on January 22, a race in which he defeated many of the same foes he will face again today. His last workout was a bullet on February 8, going five furlongs in 1:00.1. I will put #7 Wiredfortwotwenty in the third position. Scott Stevens has been enjoying a solid season at Turf Paradise, returning from a serious injury sustained last summer at Canterbury Park. If anyone is going to wire this field, it might just be this gelding. My main question with him is the distance. He broke his maiden at six furlongs at Hollywood in July 2008. Since then, he does not have a win at the distance. Finally, I will include a relative longshot at 10-1 with #6 New Bay. His last two efforts were with Grade 1 company in Southern California, resulting in a sixth and a seventh. I think this spot might be a little closer to his capabilities. He has been working like a speed demon at Santa Anita since the New Year. Jake Barton will be aboard. Here is the play for the $75,000 Phoenix Gold Cup:

$1 EX BOX 4-6-7-10-11
$1 TRI 10-11 with 10-11 with 2-4-6-7-9
TOTAL- $30

For the record, following last week's second-place finish by Too Experience and the Brethren-Too Experience exacta his, the blog is currently MINUS $7.30 for the year. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Winning Colors

This weekend is the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. It honors one of the finest horses ever to come out of the Bayou, Risen Star, who like so many other Triple Crown candidates won two of the three Classic events. However, unlike so many others, he is similar to Point Given in that he failed at the first hurdle, The Kentucky Derby, as opposed to the last hurdle, The Belmont Stakes. Risen Star suffered a horrendous trip around the Churchill Downs oval on the First Saturday In May, 1988. It was actually a testament to his greatness that he finished third, behind Winning Colors (pictured) and Forty Niner.

Winning Colors became just the third filly in history to win the Kentucky Derby. She still stands as the last filly to wear the Roses. She joined the very exclusive club of Regret, the 1915 winner, and Genuine Risk, the 1980 winner. Regret is considered by many racing historians to be the horse that saved the Kentucky Derby. The Derby was on hard times in the early years of this century with small fields and dwindling interest, especially from the racing hierarchy in the east. Regret changed all that with her victory. It restored the importance of the Derby and it also fixed the attitudes of the eastern racing establishment, since the winning owner, Harry Payne Whitney, spoke mightily of how crucial it was for his filly to win the Derby. Genuine Risk came along 65 years later and was probably the best three-year-old in the nation that year, male or female. She blew past Jaklin Klugman at the top of the stretch (although you gotta admit, it would have been awesome for everyone if owner Jack Klugman would have won the Derby) and held off the late charge of Rumbo to become the second filly to turn the trick at Churchill Downs, winning in the colors of owner Diana Firestone. Oddly enough, neither Regret nor Genuine Risk ever missed the money in any of their races.

The same cannot be said for Winning Colors, although her record of eight wins, three seconds, and one third from nineteen starts is nothing to sneeze at. Winning Colors was the first Kentucky Derby winner for both trainer D. Wayne Lukas and jockey Gary Stevens. Lukas, amazingly, played a role in Genuine Risk's Triple Crown record since he trained Codex, who won the 1980 Preakness after surviving an objection that he impeded the progress of Genuine Risk at the top of the stretch. Lukas would win the Derby thrice more in his Hall Of Fame career. As for Stevens, he would get to the exclusive Kentucky Derby Winner's Circle at Churchill Downs twice more after Winning Colors win. Winning Colors went right to the lead on Derby Day and quite honestly, never looked back. She was in front all the way around the racetrack and still had plenty left to hold off a belated charge from Forty Niner to win by a neck.

Remarkably, if Winning Colors is remembered for any race beside her Derby win, it is an epic loss that lives in racing history. She returned to Churchill Downs for the Breeders' Cup Distaff in 1988. Again, she attempted to steal the race on the lead and came ever so close to doing exactly that. Only a determined finish by the brilliant, undefeated Personal Ensign denied Winning Colors a Breeders' Cup victory that day. Winning Colors was voted Champion Three-Year-Old Filly in 1988 and was inducted into the United States Racing Hall Of Fame in 2000. She passed away in February 2008 after a bout with colic.

Here is the link if you would like to watch Winning Colors' triumph in the 1988 Kentucky Derby:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maKjghSxcAI. Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of sportsillustrated.cnn.com