As mentioned earlier this week on this blog, Uncle Mo will begin his three-year-old campaign in the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. If you would like a preview of some of the potential competition that the Champion Two-Year-Old will face, then the Grade 3 $225,000 Sam F. Davis on Saturday is for you. It features a field of ten going 1 1/16 miles over the main track at Tampa. Here is the analysis:
The top selection for me will be the 12-1 shot, #4 Too Experience. This will be his 2011 debut effort, but the last few workouts have been quite good. It is almost like trainer Mark Passley has been gearing the horse to be ready to debut in full flight on Saturday. Also, those horses that have run at Calder seem to have a great deal of success at other venues in recent days. Plus, you get Daniel Centeno aboard and he is always one to watch at Tampa. For second, I will go with Super Saver's brother, #10 Brethren. He is also making his 2011 debut here, but he is an undefeated 2 for 2 in his career. His win in a one-turn mile at Churchill on November 27 was certainly eye-catching. His works have also been strong leading into this go and while his brother didn't win the Tampa Bay Derby last year, I think the experience at Tampa Bay Downs clearly didn't hurt Super Saver on the way to the Roses. #3 Washington's Rules will be the third choice off a nice maiden-breaker at Gulfstream Park on January 22. Kent Desormeaux will be aboard on Saturday, as he was for the first two starts by this gelding. There are two Derby winners just a generation back in the lineage (Fusaichi Pegasus and Silver Charm). The last workout on February 5 was a bullet, going five furlongs in 59.3 seconds. I will use #8 Monzon to complete the top four selections here. Edgar Prado was up for the last two tries, which included a win in the Count Fleet over the inner track at Aqueduct on New Year's Day. This gelding has won three times in his six-race career, including both tries over main track surfaces. Here is the play for the Grade 3 $225,000 Sam F. Davis:
$5 WP #4
$1 EX BOX 2-3-4-8-10
For the record, the blog is now MINUS $52 for the year. We are hopeful we can reverse that downward trend. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!