Friday, May 01, 2009

It's Friesan Fire...

...for me in the 135th Kentucky Derby. I honestly thought he was the winner before the forecasts called for rain. All that did was ruin my price. I expected to get around 6-1 or 7-1 on the Louisiana Derby winner, but now everyone will be on him if the track comes up wet and that will drop his price to around 4-1 or 5-1. Certainly not what I hoped for. His razor-sharp work earlier this week just put an exclamation point on my feelings for him in the Derby. Trainer Larry Jones ought to get a Derby win before he retires and I think the stars will align for him.

As far as the other 19 going to the gate on Saturday, I do like Musket Man to be there at the finish, which is contrary to some popular thoughts. His Sire is Yonaguska, who could not go farther than seven furlongs at his best. However, Musket Man's win in the Illinois Derby really impressed me with the style it was done, a style that should serve him well in the Derby. Also, I expect him to be no less than 20-1 and I certainly like that price.

Desert Party is another that stands out and gets into my top three on Saturday. He defeated Regal Ransom, his Godolphin stablemate, twice in three head-to-head match-ups. If you like both of those horses, doesn't Desert Party have to get a bit of an edge for that very reason? Advice can certainly be a factor in the race also. His win in the Lexington was resounding two weeks ago, but the ever-present Polytrack question could be a tough one for him to answer. Papa Clem won the Arkansas Derby and that is always a strong Derby prep. However, he also finished 7 1/4 lengths behind my top pick in the Louisiana Derby.

So, how do you bet the Derby and not go broke in the process? I will be taking the easy way out and do a simple five-horse exacta box with the runners I like here. Remember, They Are Off assumes no responsibility for any wagers made in conjunction with these suggestions. Tune in again on Monday for a Derby recap. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

PLAY FOR THE 135TH KENTUCKY DERBY: $1 EX BOX 2-4-6-7-19
TOTAL- $20

1 comment:

Scott said...

I'm going with 6 11 15 16 tri box. I agree with you on Friesan Fire but I think Chocolate Candy could be there at the end. Good luck!