It is time again for "The Mid-summer Derby" at Saratoga. Saturday's running will be the 144th renewal of the Grade 1 Travers Stakes. A field of nine will go to the post featuring this year's Kentucky Derby winner and runner-up, the Belmont winner, the Haskell winner, even the Virginia Derby winner will make an appearance at The Spa. It sets up to be a race with some speed present as Verrazano, Palace Malice, and Moreno all like to go to the front. Will this set things up for a closer? I certainly think so, according to the picks:
#2 Orb (4-1) has not won since the First Saturday In May. However, I do not feel that Orb will go on to be like Mine That Bird or Super Saver and never win another race after the Derby score. In fact, I think the Shug McGaughey trainee gets back to the Winner's Circle on Saturday. There will be plenty of pace for him to run into in the Travers, so his closing style should be a benefit here. He has been working like a beast in the mornings at Fair Hill and Saratoga with THREE consecutive bullet workouts on the tab. He even has a previous start at Saratoga. He ran third in his debut (behind Violence and Titletown Five) here last August. The price of 4-1 is even decent enough to speculate on Orb in this race.
#3 Verrazano (2-1) is the 2-1 morning line favorite in the Travers off a fantastic performance in the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth in July. He posted a Beyer figure of 116 in that victory, but if you look at his past performances, his previous best Beyer was a 105 on Groundhog Day at Gulfstream. He didn't repeat that number until the Haskell. It is entirely possible he bounces a bit off that big Haskell win. I think this is more of a factor given that there is going to be other speed for him to contend with here. John Velazquez is a genius in the saddle, but it appears to me that he will have a bit to overcome to be a winner in the Travers on Saturday.
#7 War Dancer (15-1) might be the longshot to look at in the Travers. This might be a bit of a silly statement, given that the colt has only run once on dirt (finishing a career-worst 4th). However, his recent speed figures have been improving steadily, culminating with a victory in the Grade 2 Virginia Derby over the grass at Colonial Downs. I feel he will be another beneficiary of what could be a wicked pace in this race. He tends to sit back in mid-pack or towards the back of the field and make one sustained run. Alan Garcia has been his jockey in all but one of his seven starts, so he should be very familiar with this Ken McPeek runner.
There is a 50-cent minimum Pick Four at Saratoga on Races 9-12, covering the Grade 1 Test, the Grade 2 Ballston Spa, the Grade 1 King's Bishop, and the Grade 1 Travers. That lineup might be the most stacked one since NBC had Must-See TV on Thursday nights.
Be sure to check out my Twitter page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Friday, August 23, 2013
Friday, August 16, 2013
The Grade 1 Arlington Million
Saturday is the 31st running of the Arlington Million at Arlington Park in the Windy City. Hard to believe that it is already that long ago that John Henry fended off the gallant run of The Bart. That fantastic finish is immortalized with a statue at the Chicago track. Let's take a detailed look at some of the top contenders in this year's renewal of the Million:
#3 Hunter's Light (8-1) is the top pick here even though the last two efforts in Germany and Singapore weren't so hot. If you look back a bit in the PPs, this Godolphin runner won two of three starts over the Tapeta surface at Meydan in Dubai before finishing seventh behind Animal Kingdom in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup. This horse is bred to run on the turf forever with both Dubai Millennium and Barathea present in the lineage. Jockey Ryan Moore has four Breeders' Cup wins over the greenery and trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the Million in 2003 with Sulamani.
#7 Indy Point (9-2) comes next with this year's Preakness winning jockey, Gary Stevens, looking to become the first rider to win the Million three times. Indy Point made a strong debut in the Wickerr at Del Mar with a win on July 24th. It is interesting that trainer Richard Mandella elected to ship in from California for this effort, so you have to believe that Mandella believes. An interesting note about this colt is that he has been to the post thirteen times in his career and hit the board in all thirteen of those starts. Granted, the first twelve of those runs were in Argentina, so it remains to be seen just how tough the competition he has faced was, and if that toughness will rub off in a really tough spot Saturday.
#10 The Apache (6-1) merits a bit of consideration in here with a similar pattern to the top pick's recent races. He ran three times at Meydan in the spring, winning one and running second twice. Following the Dubai campaign, he took some time off and came back in a Group 2 at York in Great Britain and ran fourth off the layoff, finishing behind the morning-line favorite in the Million, Grandeur. I must admit that I like The Apache a shade more than Grandeur despite this because in examining the trip notes of the favorite, I can see lots of trouble mentioned in those. With Grandeur deep closing running style, he might encounter some issues that could stymie his rally.
Good luck on the entire Saturday card at Arlington Park with plenty of excellent racing available including the Beverly D and the Secretariat.
Be sure to check out my Twitter page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
#3 Hunter's Light (8-1) is the top pick here even though the last two efforts in Germany and Singapore weren't so hot. If you look back a bit in the PPs, this Godolphin runner won two of three starts over the Tapeta surface at Meydan in Dubai before finishing seventh behind Animal Kingdom in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup. This horse is bred to run on the turf forever with both Dubai Millennium and Barathea present in the lineage. Jockey Ryan Moore has four Breeders' Cup wins over the greenery and trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the Million in 2003 with Sulamani.
#7 Indy Point (9-2) comes next with this year's Preakness winning jockey, Gary Stevens, looking to become the first rider to win the Million three times. Indy Point made a strong debut in the Wickerr at Del Mar with a win on July 24th. It is interesting that trainer Richard Mandella elected to ship in from California for this effort, so you have to believe that Mandella believes. An interesting note about this colt is that he has been to the post thirteen times in his career and hit the board in all thirteen of those starts. Granted, the first twelve of those runs were in Argentina, so it remains to be seen just how tough the competition he has faced was, and if that toughness will rub off in a really tough spot Saturday.
#10 The Apache (6-1) merits a bit of consideration in here with a similar pattern to the top pick's recent races. He ran three times at Meydan in the spring, winning one and running second twice. Following the Dubai campaign, he took some time off and came back in a Group 2 at York in Great Britain and ran fourth off the layoff, finishing behind the morning-line favorite in the Million, Grandeur. I must admit that I like The Apache a shade more than Grandeur despite this because in examining the trip notes of the favorite, I can see lots of trouble mentioned in those. With Grandeur deep closing running style, he might encounter some issues that could stymie his rally.
Good luck on the entire Saturday card at Arlington Park with plenty of excellent racing available including the Beverly D and the Secretariat.
Be sure to check out my Twitter page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Monday, July 01, 2013
Wise Dan
The 2012 Horse Of The Year, Wise Dan, has now been to the post three times in 2013. His comeback effort off his Breeders' Cup Mile win was a score at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Maker's 46 Mile five months after the win at Santa Anita. He followed that up with a Derby Day score in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, where he won easily by nearly five lengths. Finally, this past weekend, Wise Dan overcame somewhat of a troubled trip to win the Grade 2 Firecracker Handicap in a driving rainstorm at Churchill Downs.
The impost of 128 pounds for Wise Dan wasn't the only obstacle that he had to overcome. If you watch the replay, which is available here: http://www.drf.com/news/churchill-downs-wise-dan-has-options-after-firecracker-win, you will notice that Wise Dan never had a step of clear running until he made the lead in the stretch. He was kept boxed in by Lea and Brian Hernandez Jr. all the way to the top of the stretch. Wise Dan finally simply bulled his way through an exceedingly narrow opening on the hedge (in fact, he made contact with the hedge itself while in the process of taking the lead) and moved away to win like the champion that he is.
So, with Wise Dan now 3 for 3 in his 2013 campaign, he will go on to Saratoga, according to trainer Charlie LoPresti. The DRF article on the win in the Firecracker says that one of two turf spots, the Fourstardave or the Bernard Baruch are likely for Wise Dan. However, LoPresti did not rule out trying the dirt in the Whitney or the Woodward.
In a season where there appears to be a dearth of likely candidates for Horse Of The Year at this stage, there are certainly very strong odds that Wise Dan could earn a repeat of that crown in 2013. LoPresti appears to think, and correctly so, that running in and winning one of the Grade 1 dirt races at The Spa would continue to enhance Wise Dan's resume' while allowing him to continue to point for the Breeders' Cup Mile in November, as opposed to the Classic.
Personally, I think in a year with not much else standing out on the HOTY front, as long as Wise Dan remains unbeaten, he will be almost a certainty to win the title again. If you think about it, there are no three-year-old stand-outs following the Triple Crown trail. Yes, Oxbow probably ran the three best races of the series, winning the Grade 1 Preakness, but he still has quite a long way to go to get into the HOTY conversation. Of the other likely candidates entering the year, Ron The Greek has only an ungraded win in four 2013 starts and while Game On Dude is 3 for 3 this season himself, how many times can you keep beating Clubhouse Ride before it gets tedious?
In a perfect world, yes, Wise Dan would run in the Breeders' Cup Classic and go head-to-head with Game On Dude to settle the score on the racetrack at the end of the season. However, how many times do we actually get to have that perfect world scenario? If Wise Dan elects to go in the Breeders' Cup Mile again and if he remains undefeated heading into that race, then I believe he should remain the once and future king should he win it again.
Be sure to check out my Twitter Page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
The impost of 128 pounds for Wise Dan wasn't the only obstacle that he had to overcome. If you watch the replay, which is available here: http://www.drf.com/news/churchill-downs-wise-dan-has-options-after-firecracker-win, you will notice that Wise Dan never had a step of clear running until he made the lead in the stretch. He was kept boxed in by Lea and Brian Hernandez Jr. all the way to the top of the stretch. Wise Dan finally simply bulled his way through an exceedingly narrow opening on the hedge (in fact, he made contact with the hedge itself while in the process of taking the lead) and moved away to win like the champion that he is.
So, with Wise Dan now 3 for 3 in his 2013 campaign, he will go on to Saratoga, according to trainer Charlie LoPresti. The DRF article on the win in the Firecracker says that one of two turf spots, the Fourstardave or the Bernard Baruch are likely for Wise Dan. However, LoPresti did not rule out trying the dirt in the Whitney or the Woodward.
In a season where there appears to be a dearth of likely candidates for Horse Of The Year at this stage, there are certainly very strong odds that Wise Dan could earn a repeat of that crown in 2013. LoPresti appears to think, and correctly so, that running in and winning one of the Grade 1 dirt races at The Spa would continue to enhance Wise Dan's resume' while allowing him to continue to point for the Breeders' Cup Mile in November, as opposed to the Classic.
Personally, I think in a year with not much else standing out on the HOTY front, as long as Wise Dan remains unbeaten, he will be almost a certainty to win the title again. If you think about it, there are no three-year-old stand-outs following the Triple Crown trail. Yes, Oxbow probably ran the three best races of the series, winning the Grade 1 Preakness, but he still has quite a long way to go to get into the HOTY conversation. Of the other likely candidates entering the year, Ron The Greek has only an ungraded win in four 2013 starts and while Game On Dude is 3 for 3 this season himself, how many times can you keep beating Clubhouse Ride before it gets tedious?
In a perfect world, yes, Wise Dan would run in the Breeders' Cup Classic and go head-to-head with Game On Dude to settle the score on the racetrack at the end of the season. However, how many times do we actually get to have that perfect world scenario? If Wise Dan elects to go in the Breeders' Cup Mile again and if he remains undefeated heading into that race, then I believe he should remain the once and future king should he win it again.
Be sure to check out my Twitter Page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Animal Kingdom
The final start of 2011 Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom's, career did not go the way everyone thought it might. His final performance came at Royal Ascot in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes and he rumbled home 11th of thirteen in the field for a disappointing period to what has been an outstanding career.
If you watch the replay of the race, which is available here: http://www.drf.com/news/royal-ascot-animal-kingdom-soundly-defeated-queen-anne, Animal Kingdom appeared to be quite headstrong early on under jockey John Velazquez, who had to take a firm hold of the horse while settling him into stride. With just under two furlongs to go, Animal Kingdom had given way and dropped right out of contention while Declaration Of War went on with it under Joseph O'Brien to score a nifty win. In watching the race, it just seems that Animal Kingdom never got comfortable for whatever reason (a hot pace, the turf course, or his own inability to settle) and was spent very early on.
So, Animal Kingdom's career comes to an end with just one of two non-top three finishes he will have on his record (the other being the 2011 Belmont Stakes, where he was seriously compromised at the start). I believe that this inglorious end is just a blip on the overall resume' though. He has been brilliant nearly every time he went to the post and he did it on all the different surfaces available these days. He scored his Derby win over the conventional dirt at Churchill Downs. He dominated the field earlier this year in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup over Tapeta at Meydan. He also put forth a tremendous effort over the grass while falling short in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile at Santa Anita last fall. Animal Kingdom always gave his utmost, which is usually all you can ask of any champion. His career ended with a fizzle, but don't ever let that be your lasting image of him. The proper image of Animal Kingdom is of his lasting greatness. Hopefully, that greatness will be passed on to his progeny, both in Australia and North America.
Be sure to check out my Twitter page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
If you watch the replay of the race, which is available here: http://www.drf.com/news/royal-ascot-animal-kingdom-soundly-defeated-queen-anne, Animal Kingdom appeared to be quite headstrong early on under jockey John Velazquez, who had to take a firm hold of the horse while settling him into stride. With just under two furlongs to go, Animal Kingdom had given way and dropped right out of contention while Declaration Of War went on with it under Joseph O'Brien to score a nifty win. In watching the race, it just seems that Animal Kingdom never got comfortable for whatever reason (a hot pace, the turf course, or his own inability to settle) and was spent very early on.
So, Animal Kingdom's career comes to an end with just one of two non-top three finishes he will have on his record (the other being the 2011 Belmont Stakes, where he was seriously compromised at the start). I believe that this inglorious end is just a blip on the overall resume' though. He has been brilliant nearly every time he went to the post and he did it on all the different surfaces available these days. He scored his Derby win over the conventional dirt at Churchill Downs. He dominated the field earlier this year in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup over Tapeta at Meydan. He also put forth a tremendous effort over the grass while falling short in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile at Santa Anita last fall. Animal Kingdom always gave his utmost, which is usually all you can ask of any champion. His career ended with a fizzle, but don't ever let that be your lasting image of him. The proper image of Animal Kingdom is of his lasting greatness. Hopefully, that greatness will be passed on to his progeny, both in Australia and North America.
Be sure to check out my Twitter page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Monday, June 17, 2013
Verrazano
The 139th Kentucky Derby did not necessarily go the way it was expected to go for Verrazano, who had been one of the hot horses leading up to the First Saturday In May. Verrazano ended up being one of the victims of the hot pace set by eventual Belmont Stakes winner, Palace Malice, and finished a disappointing 14th in the race. In fact, he never really ended up being much of a factor at Churchill Downs, which also seemed to be part of the problem, since the track came up wet and sticky on Derby Day.
Well, this weekend, Verrazano rebounded nicely off that disappointment and scored an emphatic win in the Grade 3 Pegasus this Sunday at Monmouth Park. Verrazano took the lead in the race right out of the gate and never looked back, eventually recording a nearly ten-length victory. Of course, part of that result came because Itsmyluckyday, another Derby fizzler, was pulled up by jockey Mike Smith just as he was moving to challenge Verrazano's lead. The hope is that Itsmyluckyday's injury won't be a serious one. Even with that, you cannot discount Verrazano's win in the Pegasus, because he did what he was expected to do and win, while essentially controlling every aspect of the race. It was a dominating performance and hopefully, will be a large springboard to getting Verrazano back into the three-year-old picture this summer.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has already said that he is planning on Verrazano pointing to the next big three-year-old event at Monmouth Park, the Grade 1 $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational on July 28. The Haskell is always the highlight of the summer on the Jersey Shore and this year's edition should prove to be another classic, especially with the inclusion of a rejuvenated Verrazano. For a video of the Pegasus, click on this link: http://www.drf.com/news/monmouth-park-verrazano-romps-pegasus-itsmyluckyday-injured.
Be sure to check out my Twitter page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Well, this weekend, Verrazano rebounded nicely off that disappointment and scored an emphatic win in the Grade 3 Pegasus this Sunday at Monmouth Park. Verrazano took the lead in the race right out of the gate and never looked back, eventually recording a nearly ten-length victory. Of course, part of that result came because Itsmyluckyday, another Derby fizzler, was pulled up by jockey Mike Smith just as he was moving to challenge Verrazano's lead. The hope is that Itsmyluckyday's injury won't be a serious one. Even with that, you cannot discount Verrazano's win in the Pegasus, because he did what he was expected to do and win, while essentially controlling every aspect of the race. It was a dominating performance and hopefully, will be a large springboard to getting Verrazano back into the three-year-old picture this summer.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has already said that he is planning on Verrazano pointing to the next big three-year-old event at Monmouth Park, the Grade 1 $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational on July 28. The Haskell is always the highlight of the summer on the Jersey Shore and this year's edition should prove to be another classic, especially with the inclusion of a rejuvenated Verrazano. For a video of the Pegasus, click on this link: http://www.drf.com/news/monmouth-park-verrazano-romps-pegasus-itsmyluckyday-injured.
Be sure to check out my Twitter page: @They_Are_Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Friday, June 08, 2012
The Grade 1 $1,000,000 Belmont Stakes
The dynamic behind the 144th Belmont Stakes changed abruptly on Friday morning with the scratch of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, I'll Have Another, due to what is being called severe tendinitis. This has, of course, taken almost all the drama out of the race since the Triple Crown try we were all hoping for is now not a possibility. However, we must be thankful that any possible injury to the horse was detected in advance of the race and now we must get on with the task at hand, which is analyzing the eleven horses remaining in the race. Here is the analysis:
Closers don't usually fare well in the Belmont Stakes for some reason. Rational thought would suggest that the longer distances would tire out the front-runners, allowing the come-from-behind horses to be more of a factor. However, history shows that just is not the case. The pacesetters in this Belmont Stakes appear to be #2 Unstoppable U and #9 Paynter. Unstoppable U is a lightly-raced colt that has won both lifetime starts over the New York tracks. Paynter was a cruising winner of his last race, an allowance start at Pimlico on Preakness day. He also was part of the Santa Anita Derby field, running 4th after not getting a good start. The next flight ought to include #3 Union Rags, #6 Ravelo's Boy, #7 Five Sixteen, #8 Guyana Star Dweej, and #12 My Adonis. Of these, Union Rags and My Adonis appear to be the only real contenders. Union Rags had a horrible time of it in the Kentucky Derby and there has been a rider switch to John Velazquez in the interim. My Adonis ran second behind Hansen in the Grade 3 Gotham earlier this year. As far as those deep closers, you have #1 Street Life, #4 Atigun, #5 Dullahan, and #10 Optimizer. Dullahan was the hot horse during Derby week and ran third at Churchill Downs. closing stoutly to gain that position. Street Life is well-considered off his third in the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 12. Optimizer has been in the gate for both the Derby and the Preakness, running 11th and sixth respectively. Here are the selections:
MICHAEL'S TOP FOUR SELECTIONS: Paynter, Unstoppable U, Union Rags, Dullahan
They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again soon for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Closers don't usually fare well in the Belmont Stakes for some reason. Rational thought would suggest that the longer distances would tire out the front-runners, allowing the come-from-behind horses to be more of a factor. However, history shows that just is not the case. The pacesetters in this Belmont Stakes appear to be #2 Unstoppable U and #9 Paynter. Unstoppable U is a lightly-raced colt that has won both lifetime starts over the New York tracks. Paynter was a cruising winner of his last race, an allowance start at Pimlico on Preakness day. He also was part of the Santa Anita Derby field, running 4th after not getting a good start. The next flight ought to include #3 Union Rags, #6 Ravelo's Boy, #7 Five Sixteen, #8 Guyana Star Dweej, and #12 My Adonis. Of these, Union Rags and My Adonis appear to be the only real contenders. Union Rags had a horrible time of it in the Kentucky Derby and there has been a rider switch to John Velazquez in the interim. My Adonis ran second behind Hansen in the Grade 3 Gotham earlier this year. As far as those deep closers, you have #1 Street Life, #4 Atigun, #5 Dullahan, and #10 Optimizer. Dullahan was the hot horse during Derby week and ran third at Churchill Downs. closing stoutly to gain that position. Street Life is well-considered off his third in the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 12. Optimizer has been in the gate for both the Derby and the Preakness, running 11th and sixth respectively. Here are the selections:
MICHAEL'S TOP FOUR SELECTIONS: Paynter, Unstoppable U, Union Rags, Dullahan
They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again soon for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Friday, May 18, 2012
The Grade 1 $1,000,000 Preakness
The middle jewel of the Triple Crown takes place on Saturday at Pimlico in Baltimore and both of the main Derby combatants, I'll Have Another and Bodemeister, will be on hand to try their luck again. Bodemeister has been made the morning-line favorite over his conqueror from Louisville. They Are Off will be joined this time for the Preakness by Dr. Reid McLellan, my former fellow handicapper from Houston, offering his selections for the Preakness in addition to my own. Here is the analysis:
MICHAEL CHAMBERLAIN
#7 Bodemeister appears for all the world to be lone speed in the Preakness. However, it must be asked how much did the grueling fractions that he set in the Derby take out of him? It must also be asked if he is capable of returning to the races just two weeks off such a test when he has always had his previous races spaced out by approximately a month. Can he win the Preakness? Of course, I am just not sold on whether or not he will. On to #9 I'll Have Another, who has run only one bad race in six lifetime appearances. That came over a sloppy track at Saratoga in the Hopeful last September. His Derby performance was quite nice and the ride he got from Mario Guiterrez was pretty much perfect. He's three for three in 2012, winning three graded stakes races. Will he make it four? I think that #8 Daddy Nose Best is capable of a bounce-back effort off a 10th place finish in the Derby. He was the "hot horse" in Louisville to many observers and didn't come through there. Isn't it possible that he might step forward on Saturday and inject a price into the proceedings. Take note that Julien Leparoux returns to the saddle to ride here after not riding this colt in the Derby. There is always a "new shooter" that gets into the mix in the Preakness. My choice for that title this year goes to #1 Tiger Walk. He is owned by the local legends of Sagamore Farm. It would be nice for Maryland if that owner could once again be prominent in the Preakness. He is adding blinkers for this try and worked a bullet half-mile over the Pimlico track on Sunday, covering the distance in 47 3/5 seconds. I think that #2 Teeth Of The Dog, who finished ahead of Tiger Walk in the Wood Memorial, and #5 Went The Day Well, who closed outstandingly in the Derby to be fourth, also merit consideration.
Michael's Top Four Selections: I'll Have Another, Daddy Nose Best, Bodemeister, Tiger Walk
DR. REID MCLELLAN
This year's Preakness handicapping task is a simple, straight-forward, logical puzzle of interesting pieces. #7 Bodemeister is now the "darling" of the racehorse media world. His Derby performance is being tabbed as the "best ever" by a front-runner- oh, except he LOST the Derby!! I don't see a single horse in this field that is fast enough to run with him early, so it will be his to lose. #9 I'll Have Another won the Derby, so he will be well-supported and has looked good so far in training at Pimlico. Plus, I like that trainer Doug O'Neill took him over to "Old Hilltop" for his pre-Preakness training. My Derby selection was #6 Creative Cause, who went back to California then flew across the country this week. This grey colt was in perfect position to strike in the Derby and flattened out. He has yet to show me that he has the necessary grit for a winning stretch move. The horse I thought made the best run in the Derby was #5 Went The Day Well. With the smaller field in the Preakness, he will not have to weave in and out of as much traffic and I think I will like his odds at post time better than the other three. I don't see any reason in the past performances to like any of the "new shooters", though a post parade impression might move one of them onto the bottom of the trifecta and superfecta plays.
Reid's Top Four Selections: Went The Day Well, I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Creative Cause
Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again soon for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
MICHAEL CHAMBERLAIN
#7 Bodemeister appears for all the world to be lone speed in the Preakness. However, it must be asked how much did the grueling fractions that he set in the Derby take out of him? It must also be asked if he is capable of returning to the races just two weeks off such a test when he has always had his previous races spaced out by approximately a month. Can he win the Preakness? Of course, I am just not sold on whether or not he will. On to #9 I'll Have Another, who has run only one bad race in six lifetime appearances. That came over a sloppy track at Saratoga in the Hopeful last September. His Derby performance was quite nice and the ride he got from Mario Guiterrez was pretty much perfect. He's three for three in 2012, winning three graded stakes races. Will he make it four? I think that #8 Daddy Nose Best is capable of a bounce-back effort off a 10th place finish in the Derby. He was the "hot horse" in Louisville to many observers and didn't come through there. Isn't it possible that he might step forward on Saturday and inject a price into the proceedings. Take note that Julien Leparoux returns to the saddle to ride here after not riding this colt in the Derby. There is always a "new shooter" that gets into the mix in the Preakness. My choice for that title this year goes to #1 Tiger Walk. He is owned by the local legends of Sagamore Farm. It would be nice for Maryland if that owner could once again be prominent in the Preakness. He is adding blinkers for this try and worked a bullet half-mile over the Pimlico track on Sunday, covering the distance in 47 3/5 seconds. I think that #2 Teeth Of The Dog, who finished ahead of Tiger Walk in the Wood Memorial, and #5 Went The Day Well, who closed outstandingly in the Derby to be fourth, also merit consideration.
Michael's Top Four Selections: I'll Have Another, Daddy Nose Best, Bodemeister, Tiger Walk
DR. REID MCLELLAN
This year's Preakness handicapping task is a simple, straight-forward, logical puzzle of interesting pieces. #7 Bodemeister is now the "darling" of the racehorse media world. His Derby performance is being tabbed as the "best ever" by a front-runner- oh, except he LOST the Derby!! I don't see a single horse in this field that is fast enough to run with him early, so it will be his to lose. #9 I'll Have Another won the Derby, so he will be well-supported and has looked good so far in training at Pimlico. Plus, I like that trainer Doug O'Neill took him over to "Old Hilltop" for his pre-Preakness training. My Derby selection was #6 Creative Cause, who went back to California then flew across the country this week. This grey colt was in perfect position to strike in the Derby and flattened out. He has yet to show me that he has the necessary grit for a winning stretch move. The horse I thought made the best run in the Derby was #5 Went The Day Well. With the smaller field in the Preakness, he will not have to weave in and out of as much traffic and I think I will like his odds at post time better than the other three. I don't see any reason in the past performances to like any of the "new shooters", though a post parade impression might move one of them onto the bottom of the trifecta and superfecta plays.
Reid's Top Four Selections: Went The Day Well, I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Creative Cause
Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again soon for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Friday, May 04, 2012
The Grade 1 $2,000,000 Kentucky Derby
The 138th Run For The Roses will be held Saturday in Louisville, Kentucky with a field of twenty that I had been thinking was so wide open that you could start the race twenty different times and get twenty different results. I will say that my thinking has changed, as you will soon see. I am joined in analyzing the Kentucky Derby by They Are Off contributor Martha Claussen, whose paragraph on the race will follow immediately after my own. Here is the analysis:
MICHAEL CHAMBERLAIN
It is evident to me that there will be quite a bit of speed in this Derby coming from the likes of #3 Take Charge Indy, #6 Bodemeister, #9 Trinniberg, #14 Hansen, and #19 I'll Have Another. Calvin Borel is always dangerous in the Derby and him drawing the #3 hole with Take Charge Indy certainly gives his backers reason to hope. The classiest horse of the speed is the Arkansas Derby winner, Bodemeister, but he is lightly raced and didn't race as a two-year-old, which is a Kentucky Derby taboo. As far as those horses in the next flight, you have #4 Union Rags, #8 Creative Cause, #10 Daddy Nose Best, #11 Alpha, #13 Went The Day Well, #15 Gemologist, and #16 El Padrino. It is this set of horses that I think is the strongest in this Derby. I honestly think that the winner will come from this list of seven contenders. As far as the deep closers, there are #1 Daddy Long Legs, #2 Optimizer, #5 Dullahan, #7 Rousing Sermon, #12 Prospective, #17 Done Talking, #18 Sabercat, and #20 Liaison. Dullahan has been a hot horse since his win in the Toyota Blue Grass over the Polytrack at Keeneland, but his Churchill Downs record does not inspire. Most of the rest of this group are justifiable large longshots.
I think that portions of the speed will hold on well, especially Bodemeister. Of the second group, Gemologist is undefeated and gets Javier Castellano aboard. I am more and more impressed by his Wood Memorial as the days pass (and for that matter, Alpha's performance in the same race). El Padrino is a likable longshot in here at 20-1, plus you have the Rafael's Revenge angle since Bejarano was Bodemeister's regular rider until the Arkansas Derby win with Mike Smith aboard. I just don't see any of the really deep closers getting too involved in here, except maybe to pick up a chunk of the underneath awards.
Michael's Top Four Selections: Gemologist, Alpha, Bodemeister, El Padrino
MARTHA CLAUSSEN
The Kentucky Derby has become more and more unpredictable each year and there is no reason to think that the 138th Run For The Roses will be any different. Gone are the days where the horse had to run as a two-year-old and make 4-5 starts in their three-year-old campaign. Turf pedigree and better synthetic form are not a problem and don't get me started on my most hated topic, Dosage! So, I will stick to one basic premise that I feel is as important as any and that is to find a "peaking horse" that appears to be improving in some way with each start.
Daddy Nose Best won just two of eight starts as a two-year-old, but is undefeated this year and his Beyers have escalated from 93 in the El Camino Real Derby to 100 in the Sunland Derby. Steve Asmussen ran second with my pick last year, Nehro, and maybe this is his year. I don't mind Julien Leparoux leaving and Garrett Gomez taking over. No Derby scores for either, but Gomez has ten Breeders' Cup wins and knows how to get a horse in position for a closing rally. I doubt he will go off at 15-1, but should be a good value, nonetheless. Bodemeister was perfection in the Arkansas Derby, but did he peak already or is he the real thing? Pedigree suggests he can get the distance. Love the connections of Graham Motion and Johnny V with Went The Day Well. Of course, who wants to look like an imbecile by ignoring Calvin "Bo-Rail" and Take Charge Indy.
Martha's Top Four Selections: Daddy Nose Best, Bodemeister, Went The Day Well, Take Charge Indy
Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers made using these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again in two weeks for a look at The 137th Preakness Stakes. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
MICHAEL CHAMBERLAIN
It is evident to me that there will be quite a bit of speed in this Derby coming from the likes of #3 Take Charge Indy, #6 Bodemeister, #9 Trinniberg, #14 Hansen, and #19 I'll Have Another. Calvin Borel is always dangerous in the Derby and him drawing the #3 hole with Take Charge Indy certainly gives his backers reason to hope. The classiest horse of the speed is the Arkansas Derby winner, Bodemeister, but he is lightly raced and didn't race as a two-year-old, which is a Kentucky Derby taboo. As far as those horses in the next flight, you have #4 Union Rags, #8 Creative Cause, #10 Daddy Nose Best, #11 Alpha, #13 Went The Day Well, #15 Gemologist, and #16 El Padrino. It is this set of horses that I think is the strongest in this Derby. I honestly think that the winner will come from this list of seven contenders. As far as the deep closers, there are #1 Daddy Long Legs, #2 Optimizer, #5 Dullahan, #7 Rousing Sermon, #12 Prospective, #17 Done Talking, #18 Sabercat, and #20 Liaison. Dullahan has been a hot horse since his win in the Toyota Blue Grass over the Polytrack at Keeneland, but his Churchill Downs record does not inspire. Most of the rest of this group are justifiable large longshots.
I think that portions of the speed will hold on well, especially Bodemeister. Of the second group, Gemologist is undefeated and gets Javier Castellano aboard. I am more and more impressed by his Wood Memorial as the days pass (and for that matter, Alpha's performance in the same race). El Padrino is a likable longshot in here at 20-1, plus you have the Rafael's Revenge angle since Bejarano was Bodemeister's regular rider until the Arkansas Derby win with Mike Smith aboard. I just don't see any of the really deep closers getting too involved in here, except maybe to pick up a chunk of the underneath awards.
Michael's Top Four Selections: Gemologist, Alpha, Bodemeister, El Padrino
MARTHA CLAUSSEN
The Kentucky Derby has become more and more unpredictable each year and there is no reason to think that the 138th Run For The Roses will be any different. Gone are the days where the horse had to run as a two-year-old and make 4-5 starts in their three-year-old campaign. Turf pedigree and better synthetic form are not a problem and don't get me started on my most hated topic, Dosage! So, I will stick to one basic premise that I feel is as important as any and that is to find a "peaking horse" that appears to be improving in some way with each start.
Daddy Nose Best won just two of eight starts as a two-year-old, but is undefeated this year and his Beyers have escalated from 93 in the El Camino Real Derby to 100 in the Sunland Derby. Steve Asmussen ran second with my pick last year, Nehro, and maybe this is his year. I don't mind Julien Leparoux leaving and Garrett Gomez taking over. No Derby scores for either, but Gomez has ten Breeders' Cup wins and knows how to get a horse in position for a closing rally. I doubt he will go off at 15-1, but should be a good value, nonetheless. Bodemeister was perfection in the Arkansas Derby, but did he peak already or is he the real thing? Pedigree suggests he can get the distance. Love the connections of Graham Motion and Johnny V with Went The Day Well. Of course, who wants to look like an imbecile by ignoring Calvin "Bo-Rail" and Take Charge Indy.
Martha's Top Four Selections: Daddy Nose Best, Bodemeister, Went The Day Well, Take Charge Indy
Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers made using these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again in two weeks for a look at The 137th Preakness Stakes. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Thursday, May 03, 2012
What The Voices Think FORE!!!
This is the fourth consecutive year that I have polled some of my fellow racecallers to get their opinions on the Kentucky Derby. Last year, we had a first in that one of us (not me) selected the winner, Animal Kingdom. John Lies of Lone Star Park is back to defend his title and try to make it two straight winners of the Run For The Roses. Here are the opinions of some of the finest track announcers around today:
Pete "The Anchor" Aiello (River Downs)- Prospective
Tom Harris (Houston)- Bodemeister
John Lies (Lone Star Park)- Dullahan
Dan Loiselle (Woodbine)- Creative Cause
Frank Mirahmadi (Oaklawn)- Bodemeister
Don Stevens (Delta Downs)- Union Rags
Travis Stone (Louisiana Downs)- Gemologist
I will add more selections from the announcers as they come in to the home office. Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!
Pete "The Anchor" Aiello (River Downs)- Prospective
Tom Harris (Houston)- Bodemeister
John Lies (Lone Star Park)- Dullahan
Dan Loiselle (Woodbine)- Creative Cause
Frank Mirahmadi (Oaklawn)- Bodemeister
Don Stevens (Delta Downs)- Union Rags
Travis Stone (Louisiana Downs)- Gemologist
I will add more selections from the announcers as they come in to the home office. Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!
Friday, April 20, 2012
The Grade 2 $200,000 Lexington Stakes
It appears that Saturday brings those interested their last major chance to qualify for the 138th Kentucky Derby two weeks hence with graded stakes earnings from the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes. The Lexington will feature a field of eleven horses going a mile and a sixteenth. Here is the analysis:
I think the most interesting horse in the field is #3 Johannesbourbon. He has only started one time over the Polytrack at Turfway Park and won at 6 1/2 furlongs. His winning margin was almost ten lengths. The natural question that arises is can he carry that ability around two turns? The Bob Baffert horse, #7 Castaway, was a horse I was thinking a Derby possibility until he failed miserably in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby. He had won one of the divisions of the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park. #10 News Pending ran well in the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream and then regressed to seventh in the subsequent Florida Derby. #2 Summer Front has been away from the races since mid-December, although his recent worktab features back-to-back bullets in April. The two horses that possess the most upside as far as I am concerned are #1 Morgan's Guerrilla and #11 Gold Megillah. Morgan's Guerrilla is removing the blinkers after running second in the Grade 3 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. Julien Leparoux rides and he has been winning wonderfully at Keeneland. Gold Megillah comes from the same connections as last year's Derby winner, Animal Kingdom. He ran third in his Polytrack debut in the ungraded Rushaway at Turfway on March 24. On the morning line, Morgan's Guerrilla is 6-1 and Gold Megillah is 10-1, so guess which way we are going.
THE PICK: #11 Gold Megillah
Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
I think the most interesting horse in the field is #3 Johannesbourbon. He has only started one time over the Polytrack at Turfway Park and won at 6 1/2 furlongs. His winning margin was almost ten lengths. The natural question that arises is can he carry that ability around two turns? The Bob Baffert horse, #7 Castaway, was a horse I was thinking a Derby possibility until he failed miserably in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby. He had won one of the divisions of the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park. #10 News Pending ran well in the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream and then regressed to seventh in the subsequent Florida Derby. #2 Summer Front has been away from the races since mid-December, although his recent worktab features back-to-back bullets in April. The two horses that possess the most upside as far as I am concerned are #1 Morgan's Guerrilla and #11 Gold Megillah. Morgan's Guerrilla is removing the blinkers after running second in the Grade 3 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. Julien Leparoux rides and he has been winning wonderfully at Keeneland. Gold Megillah comes from the same connections as last year's Derby winner, Animal Kingdom. He ran third in his Polytrack debut in the ungraded Rushaway at Turfway on March 24. On the morning line, Morgan's Guerrilla is 6-1 and Gold Megillah is 10-1, so guess which way we are going.
THE PICK: #11 Gold Megillah
Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Super Six Derby Pix
Hard as it may be to believe, but we are currently just eighteen days away from the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Is it just me or was it just yesterday that Animal Kingdom was wearing roses? Anyway, the 138th Derby might just be one of the more wide-open editions of the Run For The Roses. I am literally thinking that you could load the twenty horses in the gate, spring the latch and you could get twenty different winners. Here are this week's Super Six Derby Pix:
#1 Gemologist- It was just two years ago that WinStar Farm and Todd Pletcher teamed up for a Derby win with Super Saver. This Tiznow offspring is now 5 for 5 in his career and his last win was a fighting effort in the Wood Memorial with Alpha, who I have been high on all spring. Jockey Javier Castellano might just be the best rider in the business right now, which makes this team tough to beat.
#2 Union Rags- It seems to me that the horse that most people were targeting as the favorite is suddenly forgotten after his loss in the Florida Derby and the wins last weekend from Dullahan and Bodemeister. Granted, his loss in the Florida Derby wasn't great, but I thought it was more of a product of a poor ride from Julien Leparoux. It might be one of the few times I can say "poor ride" and "Leparoux" in the same sentence, but it shouldn't cause anyone to discount the chances of this horse.
#3 I'll Have Another- So far, so good in 2012 for this colt. He won the Robert Lewis at long odds and then followed it up with a win in the Santa Anita Derby in a tough stretch duel that also involved Creative Cause. It is worth noting that the only time this horse left the West Coast, he ran sixth in the Hopeful at Saratoga. Last time I checked, Kentucky was not on the West Coast. The other question with this horse is the jockey Mario Guiterrez. He has done well in the west, but how will do on the REALLY big stage?
#4 Hansen- Can everyone please get off the dye job story involving this horse and his tail? Even the connections are sick of it. What cannot be overlooked is that he was run down by Dullahan this last weekend in the Blue Grass over the polytrack at Keeneland. I think, however, that Ramon Dominguez wasn't really asking for everything he could in the stretch of that race. Remember, Hansen has his spot already secured in Louisville, so while it would have been nice to win that race, it wasn't totally necessary.
#5 Bodemeister- Empire Maker didn't win the Kentucky Derby (much to my chagrin), but this son of his certainly could. His performance at the Arkansas Derby this past weekend certainly was dazzling. However, when it comes to this horse, you must remember that the old statistic of no horse has won the Derby without running as a two-year-old since ye olden days comes into play here. Bodemeister didn't debut until January 16 of this year. Never mind Secret Circle though, I think this might be Bob Baffert's best Derby chance this season.
#6 Creative Cause- He will have eight career starts when he goes postward at Churchill Downs, which is a lot these days. He has never missed the money in any of those performances. I think he is certainly going to be a win candidate in the Derby, but am concerned that he allowed I'll Have Another to go by and win the Santa Anita Derby. In the stretch of that race, I thought this grey was the winner, only to be rebuffed at the very end. He will have to negotiate another furlong on May 5.
Tune in again this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
#1 Gemologist- It was just two years ago that WinStar Farm and Todd Pletcher teamed up for a Derby win with Super Saver. This Tiznow offspring is now 5 for 5 in his career and his last win was a fighting effort in the Wood Memorial with Alpha, who I have been high on all spring. Jockey Javier Castellano might just be the best rider in the business right now, which makes this team tough to beat.
#2 Union Rags- It seems to me that the horse that most people were targeting as the favorite is suddenly forgotten after his loss in the Florida Derby and the wins last weekend from Dullahan and Bodemeister. Granted, his loss in the Florida Derby wasn't great, but I thought it was more of a product of a poor ride from Julien Leparoux. It might be one of the few times I can say "poor ride" and "Leparoux" in the same sentence, but it shouldn't cause anyone to discount the chances of this horse.
#3 I'll Have Another- So far, so good in 2012 for this colt. He won the Robert Lewis at long odds and then followed it up with a win in the Santa Anita Derby in a tough stretch duel that also involved Creative Cause. It is worth noting that the only time this horse left the West Coast, he ran sixth in the Hopeful at Saratoga. Last time I checked, Kentucky was not on the West Coast. The other question with this horse is the jockey Mario Guiterrez. He has done well in the west, but how will do on the REALLY big stage?
#4 Hansen- Can everyone please get off the dye job story involving this horse and his tail? Even the connections are sick of it. What cannot be overlooked is that he was run down by Dullahan this last weekend in the Blue Grass over the polytrack at Keeneland. I think, however, that Ramon Dominguez wasn't really asking for everything he could in the stretch of that race. Remember, Hansen has his spot already secured in Louisville, so while it would have been nice to win that race, it wasn't totally necessary.
#5 Bodemeister- Empire Maker didn't win the Kentucky Derby (much to my chagrin), but this son of his certainly could. His performance at the Arkansas Derby this past weekend certainly was dazzling. However, when it comes to this horse, you must remember that the old statistic of no horse has won the Derby without running as a two-year-old since ye olden days comes into play here. Bodemeister didn't debut until January 16 of this year. Never mind Secret Circle though, I think this might be Bob Baffert's best Derby chance this season.
#6 Creative Cause- He will have eight career starts when he goes postward at Churchill Downs, which is a lot these days. He has never missed the money in any of those performances. I think he is certainly going to be a win candidate in the Derby, but am concerned that he allowed I'll Have Another to go by and win the Santa Anita Derby. In the stretch of that race, I thought this grey was the winner, only to be rebuffed at the very end. He will have to negotiate another furlong on May 5.
Tune in again this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Friday, April 13, 2012
The Grade 1 $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby
The Kentucky Derby is now just three short weeks away. In recent weeks, several horses have established their credentials to go forward to Louisville, while still others remain on the outside looking in. There are now precious few opportunities to get into the gate for the Derby. One of those is at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, the Grade 1 $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby, the culmination of the Racing Festival Of The South. Here is the analysis:
Of the horses in this field, likely only #5 Secret Circle is a lock to make the Derby field, should his connections elect to go that far. Speaking of going that far, that has always been the concern with this horse. How far can he go? The fact remains that if he keeps winning as these races get longer, then he certainly can go this far. Secret Circle will likely be forwardly placed in the Arkansas Derby, as will #11 Bodemeister. One of these horses will likely be the favorite on Saturday. However, since they have similar running styles, the possibility is there that these horses could burn each other out with some serious speed. So, if that happens and the two favorites fade away, who picks up the slack? I think that #6 Isn't He Clever certainly can be a winner here. His workouts are stellar with two recent bullet workouts. Blinkers are coming off this gelding for this try. #7 Optimizer made an impressive run to get second money in the Rebel at Oaklawn on March 17. However, he also didn't run a step in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds the time before. Which horse will show up? #8 Sabercat did earn enough money in the Delta Jackpot to ensure a Derby place, but he has only run once since that win and his eighth in the Rebel really doesn't inspire confidence for his chances, especially when it comes to the Derby in three weeks. I had been high on #3 Najjaar in the Rebel, but he never really got going until it was way too late and ended up a closing sixth. Maybe Calvin Borel won't wait until it's hopelessly late to get him rolling.
THE PICK: #6 Isn't He Clever (6-1)
Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Of the horses in this field, likely only #5 Secret Circle is a lock to make the Derby field, should his connections elect to go that far. Speaking of going that far, that has always been the concern with this horse. How far can he go? The fact remains that if he keeps winning as these races get longer, then he certainly can go this far. Secret Circle will likely be forwardly placed in the Arkansas Derby, as will #11 Bodemeister. One of these horses will likely be the favorite on Saturday. However, since they have similar running styles, the possibility is there that these horses could burn each other out with some serious speed. So, if that happens and the two favorites fade away, who picks up the slack? I think that #6 Isn't He Clever certainly can be a winner here. His workouts are stellar with two recent bullet workouts. Blinkers are coming off this gelding for this try. #7 Optimizer made an impressive run to get second money in the Rebel at Oaklawn on March 17. However, he also didn't run a step in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds the time before. Which horse will show up? #8 Sabercat did earn enough money in the Delta Jackpot to ensure a Derby place, but he has only run once since that win and his eighth in the Rebel really doesn't inspire confidence for his chances, especially when it comes to the Derby in three weeks. I had been high on #3 Najjaar in the Rebel, but he never really got going until it was way too late and ended up a closing sixth. Maybe Calvin Borel won't wait until it's hopelessly late to get him rolling.
THE PICK: #6 Isn't He Clever (6-1)
Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Friday, March 30, 2012
The Grade 2 $1,000,000 Louisiana Derby
New Orleans will be hopping this weekend (as opposed to any other usual weekend in The Big Easy) with the Final Four on Saturday and the NCAA Title Game on Monday. Of course, the intervening Sunday will feature the 99th running of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. Here is the analysis:
The early speed might very well be put forth by #6 Cigar Street, #9 Comisky's Humor and #12 Hero Of Order. I also happen to think that part of the favored entry, #1a Mark Valeski, will be quite close to whatever pace happens to develop. #3 Windsurfer, #8 Arm Force, and #10 Z Dager will also be in what I think will be the second flight of runners. #7 Shared Property is adding blinkers tonight. #13 Afford will need to overcome the #14 post position to be a factor here, but his running style is such that the post position might not affect him to much. The deep closers in the field appear to be #4 Finnegans Wake, #5 Flashy Sunrise, and #11 Rousing Sermon.
Cigar Street was awesome in his maiden-breaking win at Fair Grounds on March 10, when he posted a field-best Beyer figure of 99. He went to the front, sent relaxed fractions, and widened out to a convincing win by over 13 lengths. I just don't think this race will set up the same way, since there appears to be a good amount of pace. The question becomes who will be the ones to pounce on the pacesetters late and what will the end result become? I think that Cigar Street's inexperience might play a factor against him here and while Mark Valeski is the logical choice after him, the price just won't be there for the entry, so I will be going with another horse that should be in a similar spot with a better price.
THE PICK: #13 Afford (15-1)
Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
The early speed might very well be put forth by #6 Cigar Street, #9 Comisky's Humor and #12 Hero Of Order. I also happen to think that part of the favored entry, #1a Mark Valeski, will be quite close to whatever pace happens to develop. #3 Windsurfer, #8 Arm Force, and #10 Z Dager will also be in what I think will be the second flight of runners. #7 Shared Property is adding blinkers tonight. #13 Afford will need to overcome the #14 post position to be a factor here, but his running style is such that the post position might not affect him to much. The deep closers in the field appear to be #4 Finnegans Wake, #5 Flashy Sunrise, and #11 Rousing Sermon.
Cigar Street was awesome in his maiden-breaking win at Fair Grounds on March 10, when he posted a field-best Beyer figure of 99. He went to the front, sent relaxed fractions, and widened out to a convincing win by over 13 lengths. I just don't think this race will set up the same way, since there appears to be a good amount of pace. The question becomes who will be the ones to pounce on the pacesetters late and what will the end result become? I think that Cigar Street's inexperience might play a factor against him here and while Mark Valeski is the logical choice after him, the price just won't be there for the entry, so I will be going with another horse that should be in a similar spot with a better price.
THE PICK: #13 Afford (15-1)
Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Super Six Derby Pix
There are two major Kentucky Derby prep race this coming weekend, the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday and the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Sunday. That means this weekend will go a long way to crystallizing the picture for the Kentucky Derby just five weeks out. Here are this week's Super Six Derby Pix:
#1 Union Rags- He will be part of the field in that Florida Derby on Saturday and will likely be the favorite. If he is the winner, then he will likely be the big favorite come Derby Day. His only misstep came in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. If he comes through on Saturday, the hype will kick in almost immediately for the big showdown with him and the horse that vanquished him in the Juvenile, Hansen.
#2 Hansen- First, it appeared that he would be going the Florida route, but he lost to the now-departed Algorithms in the Holy Bull. He then went north and rocked the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. Therefore, it was assumed he would stick in the Big Apple and run in the Wood Memorial. Not so fast, as he is now scheduled to run in the Blue Grass Stakes over the polytrack at Keeneland. This movement has affected the plans of other runners, but since Hansen is one of the big dogs, his connections can do what they want to.
#3 El Padrino- The first Todd Pletcher trainee on the list has been a vagabond of sorts as well. He flashed on the scene this year after a flashy Allowance win at Gulfstream Park on January 29. From there, he went to Louisiana and eked out a victory in the Risen Star, just withstanding the challenge of Mark Valeski, who will be one of the favorites in the Louisiana Derby this weekend. Meanwhile, El Padrino has gone back to Florida and will be part of the field in the Florida Derby.
#4 Creative Cause- He has been the top dog on the West Coast this season. Yes, he ran third in the San Vicente, but he followed that up with a strong score in the San Felipe on March 10. He will likely be the big favorite in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7, which will likely be his last start before heading to Kentucky. Remember, he was not that far behind Hansen and Union Rags in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall, so the deficit to make up really isn't that much.
#5 Alpha- This is the horse that trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has been waiting to see where everyone else was going to go before he decided what to do with him. He might be the best chance Godolphin has had for that elusive Derby win that they want so badly. After all the thrusting and parrying with the schedule, he will go postward in the Wood Memorial on April 7. Granted his Breeders' Cup Juvenile was disappointing, but he has been solid as a rock in two wins over the inner track at the Big A. It will be interesting to see how he does over the main dirt surface there.
#6 Prospective- He was the best of the bunch at Tampa Bay Downs this winter season. He overcame a horrible post draw to run second in the Sam Davis and then withstood a stern challenge from longshot Golden Ticket to win the Tampa Bay Derby itself after drawing the rail. He might be facing off with Alpha in the Wood Memorial on April 7 in New York. However, if you are going to denigrate Alpha for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then Prospective deserves demerits for the race also since he finished 13th.
Tune in again later this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
#1 Union Rags- He will be part of the field in that Florida Derby on Saturday and will likely be the favorite. If he is the winner, then he will likely be the big favorite come Derby Day. His only misstep came in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. If he comes through on Saturday, the hype will kick in almost immediately for the big showdown with him and the horse that vanquished him in the Juvenile, Hansen.
#2 Hansen- First, it appeared that he would be going the Florida route, but he lost to the now-departed Algorithms in the Holy Bull. He then went north and rocked the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. Therefore, it was assumed he would stick in the Big Apple and run in the Wood Memorial. Not so fast, as he is now scheduled to run in the Blue Grass Stakes over the polytrack at Keeneland. This movement has affected the plans of other runners, but since Hansen is one of the big dogs, his connections can do what they want to.
#3 El Padrino- The first Todd Pletcher trainee on the list has been a vagabond of sorts as well. He flashed on the scene this year after a flashy Allowance win at Gulfstream Park on January 29. From there, he went to Louisiana and eked out a victory in the Risen Star, just withstanding the challenge of Mark Valeski, who will be one of the favorites in the Louisiana Derby this weekend. Meanwhile, El Padrino has gone back to Florida and will be part of the field in the Florida Derby.
#4 Creative Cause- He has been the top dog on the West Coast this season. Yes, he ran third in the San Vicente, but he followed that up with a strong score in the San Felipe on March 10. He will likely be the big favorite in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7, which will likely be his last start before heading to Kentucky. Remember, he was not that far behind Hansen and Union Rags in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall, so the deficit to make up really isn't that much.
#5 Alpha- This is the horse that trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has been waiting to see where everyone else was going to go before he decided what to do with him. He might be the best chance Godolphin has had for that elusive Derby win that they want so badly. After all the thrusting and parrying with the schedule, he will go postward in the Wood Memorial on April 7. Granted his Breeders' Cup Juvenile was disappointing, but he has been solid as a rock in two wins over the inner track at the Big A. It will be interesting to see how he does over the main dirt surface there.
#6 Prospective- He was the best of the bunch at Tampa Bay Downs this winter season. He overcame a horrible post draw to run second in the Sam Davis and then withstood a stern challenge from longshot Golden Ticket to win the Tampa Bay Derby itself after drawing the rail. He might be facing off with Alpha in the Wood Memorial on April 7 in New York. However, if you are going to denigrate Alpha for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then Prospective deserves demerits for the race also since he finished 13th.
Tune in again later this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Friday, March 16, 2012
The Grade 2 $500,000 Rebel Stakes
The lone major Kentucky Derby prep on St. Patrick's Day takes place in Hot Springs, Arkansas at Oaklawn Park. The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes is final tune-up for a field of thirteen hopefuls who wish to progress to the Arkansas Derby and then on to the Kentucky Derby. Bob Baffert brings Secret Circle back to test the distance waters again at 1 1/16 miles following an impressive win in the 1 mile Southwest Stakes. Here is the analysis:
Clearly, #8 Secret Circle will be the main speed threat in this race. Granted he sat slightly off the pace of #3 Scatman in the Southwest on February 20, then rallied to get a win by a half-length. Both horses eclipsed Beyer numbers of 100 in that division of the Southwest. It could very well develop into a speed battle between these two again in the Rebel. Of course, what will be the key factor is what happens behind them. Who might come and get them if they tire late? Delta Jackpot winner, #7 Sabercat, ought to be rolling late, along with the Charles Cella-owned #4 Cyber Secret. I think there is a myriad of possibilities as far as deep closers in here, especially with the extra distance. #5 Optimizer has plenty of experience with racing in tall cotton, having finished 3rd and 8th in two previous Grade 1 tries. Steve Asmussen sends out the lightly raced #1 Unbridled's Note and #11 Najjaar is a come-from-behind horse that has won two straight at Oaklawn and gets Calvin Borel up. Isn't Calvin kind of overdue to get a big win again?
THE PICK: #11 Najjaar (6-1)
Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Clearly, #8 Secret Circle will be the main speed threat in this race. Granted he sat slightly off the pace of #3 Scatman in the Southwest on February 20, then rallied to get a win by a half-length. Both horses eclipsed Beyer numbers of 100 in that division of the Southwest. It could very well develop into a speed battle between these two again in the Rebel. Of course, what will be the key factor is what happens behind them. Who might come and get them if they tire late? Delta Jackpot winner, #7 Sabercat, ought to be rolling late, along with the Charles Cella-owned #4 Cyber Secret. I think there is a myriad of possibilities as far as deep closers in here, especially with the extra distance. #5 Optimizer has plenty of experience with racing in tall cotton, having finished 3rd and 8th in two previous Grade 1 tries. Steve Asmussen sends out the lightly raced #1 Unbridled's Note and #11 Najjaar is a come-from-behind horse that has won two straight at Oaklawn and gets Calvin Borel up. Isn't Calvin kind of overdue to get a big win again?
THE PICK: #11 Najjaar (6-1)
Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Super Six Derby Pix
The Kentucky Derby picture continues to sharpen its focus as we draw nearer and nearer to the First Saturday In May, when the issue will finally be decided underneath the Twin Spires. The big prep race on St. Patrick's Day will be the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas. Trainer Bob Baffert swept both divisions of the Southwest Stakes earlier this meet at Oaklawn with Castaway and Secret Circle. Here are the Pix for this week:
#1 Union Rags- He cemented his status as the early favorite after his convincing win in the Fountain Of Youth. The only question that remains after that effort is; "what did he beat?". Algorithms scratched and is now out of action, so while Union Rags remains at the top of the pops, I think he must put together another sterling effort in the Florida Derby to remain as number one.
#2 El Padrino- Trainer Todd Pletcher took this top candidate away from Florida for his last try in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. What he got was all he could handle. El Padrino won the Risen Star, but only after being extended to the limit by Mark Valeski in New Orleans. Now, Pletcher has elected to go back to Florida and Gulfstream Park for the Florida Derby on March 31. It could turn the Florida Derby into the biggest and best prep race of the season.
#3 Hansen- The Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner stole the title of New York's leading Derby candidate away from Alpha with his win in the Gotham Stakes on March 3. His race was maybe one of his best overall efforts, considering he had to overcome his outside post position, which essentially compromised his preferred running style of being in front all the way. Hansen ended up sitting just off the early leaders and stormed into the lead at the stretch call and went on to win by three lengths.
#4 Creative Cause- There was a time earlier this year when I thought the Derby winner would be a product of Southern California. Maybe I was right, but I wasn't necessarily thinking about this grey colt. Yes, he ran third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but he also ran third in the San Vicente at Santa Anita on February 19. He followed that one up with a nifty score over the relatively inexperienced Bodemeister in the San Felipe. The next stop if the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
#5 Alpha- Admittedly, I have been high on this Godolphin colt for a while now. He really has never made a mistake throughout his early year campaign in New York. His lone poor effort, unfortunately, came on the biggest stage he has faced thus far, an 11th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in November. Now, there is uncertainty as to where he will race next, with the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Wood Memorial still under consideration by trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.
#6 Prospective- I thought quite a bit of his second place finish in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay, considering he drew the outside post in the field of eleven. Conversely, he drew the rail post position in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 10. Needless to say, I also thought quite a bit of this effort, given that no one gave him his victory. He was given a taut battle by longshot Golden Ticket in the Tampa Bay Derby and managed to prevail nicely.
Tune in again later this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
#1 Union Rags- He cemented his status as the early favorite after his convincing win in the Fountain Of Youth. The only question that remains after that effort is; "what did he beat?". Algorithms scratched and is now out of action, so while Union Rags remains at the top of the pops, I think he must put together another sterling effort in the Florida Derby to remain as number one.
#2 El Padrino- Trainer Todd Pletcher took this top candidate away from Florida for his last try in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. What he got was all he could handle. El Padrino won the Risen Star, but only after being extended to the limit by Mark Valeski in New Orleans. Now, Pletcher has elected to go back to Florida and Gulfstream Park for the Florida Derby on March 31. It could turn the Florida Derby into the biggest and best prep race of the season.
#3 Hansen- The Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner stole the title of New York's leading Derby candidate away from Alpha with his win in the Gotham Stakes on March 3. His race was maybe one of his best overall efforts, considering he had to overcome his outside post position, which essentially compromised his preferred running style of being in front all the way. Hansen ended up sitting just off the early leaders and stormed into the lead at the stretch call and went on to win by three lengths.
#4 Creative Cause- There was a time earlier this year when I thought the Derby winner would be a product of Southern California. Maybe I was right, but I wasn't necessarily thinking about this grey colt. Yes, he ran third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but he also ran third in the San Vicente at Santa Anita on February 19. He followed that one up with a nifty score over the relatively inexperienced Bodemeister in the San Felipe. The next stop if the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
#5 Alpha- Admittedly, I have been high on this Godolphin colt for a while now. He really has never made a mistake throughout his early year campaign in New York. His lone poor effort, unfortunately, came on the biggest stage he has faced thus far, an 11th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in November. Now, there is uncertainty as to where he will race next, with the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Wood Memorial still under consideration by trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.
#6 Prospective- I thought quite a bit of his second place finish in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay, considering he drew the outside post in the field of eleven. Conversely, he drew the rail post position in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 10. Needless to say, I also thought quite a bit of this effort, given that no one gave him his victory. He was given a taut battle by longshot Golden Ticket in the Tampa Bay Derby and managed to prevail nicely.
Tune in again later this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Wednesday, March 07, 2012
Getting The Gate
Perhaps there is no group of people that are more underappreciated in the world of horse racing than the starting gate crew. There is quite a bit of inherent danger involved in being part of the crew. Frequent They Are Off contributor, Martha Claussen, has written a piece about the gate crew in Houston and here is the link to this excellent piece:
http://www.surebetracingnews.com/NEWS/The%20Unsung%20Heroes%20of%20the%20Racing%20World%20Behind_Gate_Crew-03072012.htm
Thanks to Martha for putting the spotlight on this group and don't forget you can tune in later this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
http://www.surebetracingnews.com/NEWS/The%20Unsung%20Heroes%20of%20the%20Racing%20World%20Behind_Gate_Crew-03072012.htm
Thanks to Martha for putting the spotlight on this group and don't forget you can tune in later this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Friday, March 02, 2012
The Grade 3 $400,000 Gotham Stakes
Hansen, the 2011 Champion Two-Year-Old and winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, stumbled in his 2012 debut in the slop at Gulfstream Park. Actually, that is both literal and figurative. He stumbled at the start of the Grade 3 Holy Bull and was never able to get the lead, eventually running 2nd behind Algorithms. As a result, Algorithms was thrust right into the middle of the Kentucky Derby picture. Unfortunately, Algorithms is now off the Derby Trail after suffering an injury prior to the Fountain Of Youth. So, now the only blot on Hansen's record is no longer a threat. Is there another blot to come? Here is the analysis:
Clearly, #12 Hansen is going to be a prohibitive favorite in the Gotham on Saturday. Trainer Michael Maker is taking off the blinkers for the first time in five starts and Ramon Dominguez, fresh off being named the George Woolf Award winner, is aboard again. Dominguez was up for Hansen's moment of glory in the Juvenile. The lingering question about the Gotham is who can go with Hansen and make him work for the lead, especially considering he drew so far outside? One thought might be #9 King And Crusader, who has been on or right near the lead in the last three starts, all of them wins (although he was DQ'd from purse money in one of them). He posted a strong bullet workout on February 26 over the inner track at Aqueduct, five furlongs in 1:01 1/5. #1 My Adonis and #4 Pretension also might be forwardly-placed, based on their past performances. If there is a pace battle, who might come from just off the pace and who will be coming from the clouds? I think that #2 Stealcase, #5 Maan, #8 Raconteur and #13 Tiger Walk will be sitting closer to the pace than the deep closers and as far as those deep closers, they appear to be #3 Finnegans Wake, #6 Dan And Sheila, #7 Suns Out Guns Out, and #11 Done Talking. Are any of these good enough to run down the champion in here? Since I am not exactly thrilled with the price Hansen will be in the Gotham, I think you have to try and beat him with a decent-enough price and in this case, that is just what I will try to do.
THE PICK: #8-Raconteur (15-1)
Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Clearly, #12 Hansen is going to be a prohibitive favorite in the Gotham on Saturday. Trainer Michael Maker is taking off the blinkers for the first time in five starts and Ramon Dominguez, fresh off being named the George Woolf Award winner, is aboard again. Dominguez was up for Hansen's moment of glory in the Juvenile. The lingering question about the Gotham is who can go with Hansen and make him work for the lead, especially considering he drew so far outside? One thought might be #9 King And Crusader, who has been on or right near the lead in the last three starts, all of them wins (although he was DQ'd from purse money in one of them). He posted a strong bullet workout on February 26 over the inner track at Aqueduct, five furlongs in 1:01 1/5. #1 My Adonis and #4 Pretension also might be forwardly-placed, based on their past performances. If there is a pace battle, who might come from just off the pace and who will be coming from the clouds? I think that #2 Stealcase, #5 Maan, #8 Raconteur and #13 Tiger Walk will be sitting closer to the pace than the deep closers and as far as those deep closers, they appear to be #3 Finnegans Wake, #6 Dan And Sheila, #7 Suns Out Guns Out, and #11 Done Talking. Are any of these good enough to run down the champion in here? Since I am not exactly thrilled with the price Hansen will be in the Gotham, I think you have to try and beat him with a decent-enough price and in this case, that is just what I will try to do.
THE PICK: #8-Raconteur (15-1)
Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Thursday, March 01, 2012
Chris Landeros
They Are Off contributor, Martha Claussen, returns today with a look at jockey Chris Landeros. Landeros has ridden before at my home track at Turf Paradise and impressed the locals with his riding abilities and he is now en route to ride in the big leagues at Gulfstream Park. Enjoy!
http://www.surebetracingnews.com/NEWS/Landeros_Switch_Circuits-02292012.htm
We wish Chris Landeros the very best of luck in his riding future. Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
http://www.surebetracingnews.com/NEWS/Landeros_Switch_Circuits-02292012.htm
We wish Chris Landeros the very best of luck in his riding future. Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Super Six Derby Pix
The Super Six Derby Pix will look a little different this week, since former #1 Algorithms was scratched out of Sunday's Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream Park with a popped splint and he is now officially off the Derby Trail. That left the race to pretty much two horses, Union Rags and Discreet Dancer. Clearly, one of those will be listed in the Pix this week. Also this past weekend, El Padrino was given all he needed from Mark Valeski in a stirring stretch duel. Here are this Pix for this week:
#1 Union Rags- There really isn't anyone else to put in the top spot right now. He absolutely dominated the Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream and since his only loss was by a nose in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after swerving through the stretch all the way. He is far and away #1 in the Derby rankings at this early date.
#2 El Padrino- He is the top Todd Pletcher trainee on the list so far and since Pletcher is likely to have a multitude of horses in the gate on Derby Day, the winner of the Risen Star is rightly ranked this high. I am curious if he will end up remaining at Fair Grounds to run in the Louisiana Derby or return to Gulfstream to run in the Florida Derby for his next prep. A story on ESPN.com is reporting that the co-owners are trying to answer this same question.
#3 Alpha- Has been the dominant horse in New York over the inner track at The Big A so far, but how far will that take him? His lone effort outside the state of New York was a disaster, an 11th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last autumn. The plan that I have heard for him was to run in just the Wood Memorial over the main dirt at Aqueduct and then head right to Kentucky. I don't know if this will leave him short in the Run For The Roses, but those old Derby cliches have been falling fast in recent years.
#4 Hansen- He is still the Champion Two-Year-Old from 2011 and the winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile over the Churchill Downs track last fall. However, his return race at Gulfstream in the Holy Bull was a sound defeat to the horse that was formerly #1 (Algorithms). He has now left Florida to run this coming weekend in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct. I still tend to think his front-running style could get compromised in the Derby itself, but we all thought that would happen to War Emblem too, didn't we?
#5 Creative Cause- He finished third in his last two tries, behind Hansen and Union Rags in the BC Juvenile, and then behind Drill and American Act in the San Vicente. His is the first name from Southern California to be on the list. He will be racing on March 10 in the Grade 2 San Felipe and then the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby after that. Since the California contingent just is not as strong as I originally thought it was going to be, I am interested to see how forward he moves in these prep races.
#6 Gemologist- Two years ago, WinStar and Todd Pletcher teamed up to win the Kentucky Derby with Super Saver. Could this colt be a return engagement for those connections in the Winner's Circle at Churchill Downs? He is undefeated in three starts so far and two of those wins were over the track in Louisville. However, he has not raced since November, so his first start of 2012 is expected to be on St. Patrick's Day in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn.
Tune in again later this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
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