Super Six Derby Pix

What a weekend we just had!!! Uncle Mo made his long-awaited comeback race in the ungraded Timely Writer at Gulfstream and won handily. Brethren disappointed (or rather his rider disappointed) in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Premier Pegasus wasn't even part of the Derby Future Wager this past weekend (at least not on an individual basis) and he dusted the field in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita. How does all that shake out when we put it into the Super Six Derby Pix?

#1-Uncle Mo- Yes, he won in the Timely Writer and yes, he won by a comfortable margin. However, I really wasn't dazzled by the performance. I am interested to see what happens the next time he goes two turns, which will be the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 9. Keep in mind that this is still a relatively lightly-raced horse and that normally doesn't translate too well on Derby Day.

#2-Dialed In- Finally suffered a defeat in that allowance race on March 8 which was a prep for the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Granted he lost to his stablemate from the Zito barn, but the pace was sluggish and that compromised his "one big run" style since there was no pace to chase. Another thing to remember is that the Florida Derby is a week before the other big preps. The Florida Derby is scheduled for April 3, a full six days before other preps and an extra week out from the Kentucky Derby.

#3-Santiva- I am depressed with the decision that has been made by the connections here to go run on the Polytrack at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes for his last prep race before the Derby. The only thing I like about it is that the Blue Grass is actually a week later than the Wood on April 16. I think that is better spacing before the Derby on May 7, but I would prefer the final prep be on a surface similar to what he'll face in Louisville. He did run 2nd in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last fall and then went to Churchill and won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. Maybe they are thinking history will repeat itself.

#4-Soldat- Off of his big win in the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth, he will part of what promises to be a very entertaining version of the Florida Derby on April 3. Does anyone else get reminded of Barbaro when looking at this horses past performances? Barbaro had the turf success before his crushing Derby score and appeared to be just as versatile as this guy appears to be. I still think that the turf will be where he really excels, but Barbaro did win the Derby after all and he could have been a turf ace too, given the chance.

#5-Premier Pegasus- Well, well, the West Coast finally has a legitimate Derby horse this season. It had been noted in an earlier version of the Super Six Derby Pix that not one West Coast horse was listed. That was because none merited consideration. That is no longer the case. His smashing win in the Grade 2 San Felipe did come against a pace that was suicidal and ridiculous. However, he still dusted Jaycito into the ground and he is poised to be the favorite in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 9.

#6-Mucho Macho Man- Will benefit greatly from the decision to get Santiva out of Louisiana and will likely be one of the main favorites for the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 26. I would hope that they try to get one other prep race in before the Derby being that far out, but it is highly unlikely that is in the plans. His overall resume' is probably the weakest of anyone on this list, but he still deserves a spot until someone comes among and knocks him out of it.

Tune in again this week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

BRAVO!!!

I would like to take this opportunity to say BRAVO!!! to John Shear, who is employed as a guard in the paddock at Santa Anita Park. Shear's job is normally to extend a rope to close off the opening in the paddock's walking ring. However, on Saturday, Shear went above and beyond his normal duties to save a situation that could have been a near-catastrophe. According to the report on espn.com, Shear put himself into harm's way when Sea And Sage broke loose in the paddock and headed straight for the opening Shear closes off. There was a young girl directly in the path of the loose horse and Shear inserted himself as protection for the girl and the horse collided with Shear instead of the girl, who was estimated to be around three or four years old.

Thankfully, Shear never lost consciousness and after receiving first aid on the scene was sent to a hospital in Pasadena for further evaluation. Shear was listed as stable on Sunday and appeared to be none the worse for wear. The girl was completely unharmed in the incident. Sea And Sage was brought back to the barn of trainer Gary Mandella was was also unharmed.

One little point I forgot to mention in this whole story is that John Shear is 90 years old. Yes, that's right 90!!! John Shear is also a former jockey and any jockey, former or otherwise, is one tough cookie. So, John Shear is a hero in every sense of the word. If you see him at Santa Anita at any time in the near future, be sure to tell him so. The girl's parents made sure to let the track know he was, it is certainly the least any of us could do. BRAVO John Shear!!!

Tune in again tomorrow from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Grade 2 $300,000 Gulfstream Park Handicap

There are, of course, important preps for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday afternoon. The Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs features another effort by Brethren, who won the prep for it with his victory in the Sam F. Davis. The Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park features the return of Uncle Mo, winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, I have selected another Gulfstream race to handicap for the blog, the Grade 2 $300,000 Gulfstream Park Handicap. Here is the analysis:

I think this race shapes up as a speedfest. For that reason, I will select a horse I expect to be travelling slightly off the pace, #6 Tizway. Tizway will be making his return to the races in this spot with Rajiv Maragh aboard. His last performance was a fifth in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Churchill Downs. His last workout on March 5 was a speedy one, going a half-mile in 49 seconds flat. For second, I will go with the favorite, #7 Soaring Empire. He has a win and a second in two graded starts at Gulfstream Park this meeting, finishing behind Tackleberry in one of them. He has a bullet work on February 28 and is extremely well-bred with Sire Empire Maker and A.P. Indy on the Dam side. I will put #1 Rule in third position. He is winless thus far in three tries at Gulfstream Park this meeting, although he posted Beyers in the 100s in the last two of those. John Velazquez will be aboard for trainer Todd Pletcher. I just refuse to leave #3 Tackleberry out of a position here. He has won the last two at Gulfstream Park at a furlong less and a furlong more than this try at one mile. He has been ignored in both of those tries and I would be loathe to do that again here. Here is the play for the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap:

$5 WP #6
$2 EX 6-7 with 1-2-3-6-7
$1 TRI 6-7 with 6-7 with 1-2-3
TOTAL- $32

Right now, the blog is MINUS $70 for the year, so we are in need of a victory on Saturday. As always, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

This is actually a crucial weekend coming up for some of the top Kentucky Derby contenders. Uncle Mo will make his highly anticipated return to the racetrack in the Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park, facing five rivals. Brethren, the winner of the Sam F. Davis, tries to complete the Tampa Bay Double with a win in the Tampa Bay Derby. It promises to be a position-altering Saturday, March 12 for the Super Six Derby Pix.

#1-Uncle Mo- OK, now we get to finally see what we have got here. Do we still have the phenomenon that crushed the field in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in November or do we have a horse that peaked too early and now must make up ground on the Road To The Derby? While I think going one mile for the return is a smart enough idea, the one-turn mile might not help his limited experience dealing with two-turn races.

#2-Dialed In- Yes, I know he lost to his Zito stablemate on Sunday at Gulfstream Park in his tune-up for the Florida Derby. However, several things worked against Dialed In that day. There was absolutely zero pace in that pace, which stunted his ability to make that one big run he made to win the Holy Bull. He also had to be much closer to the lead as a result of that first problem, which became problem number two. I think that Sunday race at Gulfstream was just a glorified workout for Dialed In and I think confidence should still be high in his camp.

#3-Brethren- The full-brother to 2010 Derby winner, Super Saver, gets another chance to impress in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby this Saturday, where he will be the overwhelming favorite. Uncle Mo was entered, but we all know he is going in the Timely Writer a little further south in Florida. Too Experience, who was the runner-up at 31-1 in the Davis, is back for another try with Brethren. The one flaw in that earlier performance was the lack of decent competition for him. That might be turning into a trend after Saturday.

#4-Santiva- I will compare this horse to another member of the 2011 Derby fraternity, Gourmet Dinner. Both always seem to be there at the finish and both always seem to give you a completely gut-wrenching effort, making sure they do all they can to win. They are both very reminiscent of Hard Spun, runner-up to Street Sense in the 2007 Derby, who always had more fortitude than anyone else on the racetrack. Can Santiva or Gourmet Dinner win the Derby? I am not sure about that yet, but I can feel certain that one or both will be underneath in the exotics.

#5-Soldat- Still earns his position in the Pix based on his impressive win in the Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream Park, turning the long-awaited return of To Honor And Serve into The Soldat Show. I still think his future lies on the greenery, but while the connections are currently nursing a case of Derby Fever, why not go for it full throttle? He has never been worse than second in seven starts and I like that experience factor for him as well. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has a Belmont win on his resume' with Jazil in 2006, but no Derby win yet.

#6-Stay Thirsty- His win in the Gotham last week was not the most impressive thing ever, but it certainly gets him in the discussion. His connections are the same as Uncle Mo's with owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher. Is he another in the long line of "second-stringers" that come into the Derby under the radar of a more fancied stablemate that ends up winning the Roses? Cannonade won while Judger did not in 1974, Thunder Gulch won while Timber Country and Serena's Song did not in 2995, and Real Quiet won while Indian Charlie did not in 1998.

Tune in again for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Wagering Weekend

Several weeks ago on this blog I wrote a piece titled "Call Me Ismael" where I documented my failures with the Pick Five wager at Turf Paradise at various junctures throughout the season. I detailed how close I had come to hitting the wager and compared myself to Captain Ahab and the Pick Five to Moby Dick. I also made a point of stating at the end of that article that I intended to hit the Pick Five before the end of the current season at Turf Paradise and that I didn't care whether the ticket paid $40 or $4,000.

Well, readers, today was finally the day. I hit the Pick Five wager at Turf Paradise for the first time on a $54 ticket for a total of $475. Believe me, it was an incredibly satisfying feeling for me. That satisfaction was heightened by the fact that a friend of mine visited the track today from California along with a friend of his and after I advised them of the carryover entering the day, they also hit the Pick Five with the help of my selections. It was a rare day of handicapping prowess for me since my top pick won six of the nine races on the card and my second selection won the other three. I can attest to the fact that this has never happened before.

Today came on the heels of an exciting Sunday that was created by the NHC Tour free handicapping tournament which awarded trips to the 2012 National Handicapping Championships to the first four finishers. For a fleeting few minutes, I was on my way to Las Vegas on Sunday. I correctly selected the winners of three of the first four contest races and was sitting in a tie for second place at that point of the contest. Unfortunately, I only managed a pair of decent priced seconds in the remaining races, but I still managed to finish a respectable T-209th in the contest with just over $55 in earnings from my picks. That was certainly a far cry from the brutal bagel I went through in the first free contest of the year, which I documented in another earlier blog piece titled "Behind The Bagel".

All in all, it was an excellent weekend handicapping-wise and wallet-wise as well. I am certainly encouraged by the last few days and hope to build on this success going forward. Tune in again tomorrow for the Super Six Derby Pix from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE.

The Grade 1 $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap

The 74th edition of the Big 'Cap takes place at Santa Anita on Saturday afternoon as part of a wonderful program that also includes the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile and Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. However, the Santa Anita Handicap is the featured event on the program and the feature features a strong field of eleven going postward led by the 4-5 morning line favorite, Twirling Candy. Here is the analysis:

Needless to say, I am going to try and beat the 4-5 favorite in here and I will attempt to do that with #3 Gladding, who could very well go right to the front and steal this race on the front end. I really don't see much else in here that will be a competitive speed position with this horse. He could do exactly what he did in the Grade 2 San Antonio, when he took the lead, set the pace, and went all the way in front. He beat several others in this field in doing so. The Sire is 2002 Belmont Stakes winner, Sarava. For second, I will go with #5 Twirling Candy, although I loathe the 4-5 odds on a horse that has yet to go this distance. I know he was awesome in winning the Grade 2 Strub at 1 1/8 miles last time out on February 5, but his lone loss came at that distance as well. Of course, that was over the cushion track at Hollywood in the Grade 1 Goodwood, so it was a different surface, but if there any doubts at all on a 4-5 shot, I think you have to look elsewhere. The horse that might be poised for a very big effort on Saturday is #10 Aggie Engineer. Joe Talamo has never missed the money in seven career pairings with this gelding, winning three of those races. He is also 7 for 8 in the top three at Santa Anita, again most of those efforts coming when the track was synthetic. The February works are very strong here, so Aggie Engineer could be peaking at the right time. Bob Baffert is entering four different horses in the Big 'Cap and the price to like in this race is his with #9 Tweebster at 15-1. He was second to Twirling Candy in the Strub and also race second behind Indian Firewater in the Grade 2 San Fernando. Mike Smith will be aboard and I think this one can really outrun his odds in this spot. Here is the play for the Grade 1 $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap:

$5 WP #3
$1 EX 3-5 with 3-5-8-9-10
$1 TRI 3-5 with 3-5 with 1-8-9-10
TOTAL- $26

The Fountain Of Youth was a complete wash last weekend, so the blog currently sits at a disappointing MINUS $44 for the year. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

Even with the one-day delay to recognize the accomplishment of Vicky Baze at Turf Paradise on Tuesday, the Super Six Derby Pix cannot be stopped. Here is this week's list:

#1-Uncle Mo- He was nominated by trainer Todd Pletcher to the Timely Writer to be run on March 12, along with twelve other horses, including Travelin Man, who finished well behind Flashpoint in the Hutcheson last weekend. There was a total of 36 nominations for the race, but one gets the impression that Pletcher REALLY wants this race to go, so Mo can get on the Road To The Roses. I still find in unsettling that the connections are passing on the Tampa Bay Derby the same day, when that was their original choice to begin with.

#2-Dialed In- Also nominated to the Timely Writer, but more likely to run in the Florida Derby. The Florida Derby won't be run until April 3, which means it will be 63 days between races for this Nick Zito trainee if he doesn't go in the Timely Writer. It also means this horse will be tremendously inexperienced leading into the Derby with only two starts in 2011. I know that seems to be the way most people want to go these days, but that strategy doesn't fit every horse.

#3-Brethren- This horse, in all honesty, should probably be at the top of this list, but again, I would be anxious to see where he would go following the Tampa Bay Derby. If he runs the same race he ran in the Sam F. Davis, he should be 2 for 2 in 2011. It was maybe the best race run by a three-year-old around two turns this year, to the naked eye. However, the Beyer number was unimpressive, as was the field. We are still nine weeks away from Louisville, but this brother of Super Saver might be the favorite to make it two straight for WinStar and Todd Pletcher.

#4-Santiva- Santiva continues to make steady progress up this list. He was all heart and desire in the Risen Star and is now listed in the Derby Watch as likely for the Louisiana Derby or the Blue Grass Stakes next. I would hope the connections would stay on the dirt and run at Fair Grounds. His speed did improve considerably in the Risen Star off his efforts last year, but he did not win. The best reason I can come up with is that he was parked outside of Mucho Macho Man all the way around the racetrack and the trip cost him.

#5-Soldat- Yes, his performance in the Fountain Of Youth this past weekend was excellent. I know I also said last week that the pace might be lacking in the Kentucky Derby this year. There is no question this horse will be part of the pace if Saturday is any indication. However, you have to think that someone is going to go with him, don't you? It is possible he could run a War Emblem-style front-running race in the Derby. It is also possible that he packs it in at the quarter pole and runs 14th or worse after getting some pressure. I still think this horse will end up on the turf later this year, a la Paddy O'Prado in 2010.

#6-To Honor And Serve- No horse was more disappointing this past week than this one. He was only the second choice in his return to racing following the long layoff after the Remsen win, but he was clearly a short horse. He was no match for Soldat, a horse I don't think is as good as this one (even though he is just ahead on this list). Trainer Bill Mott has never won the Kentucky Derby, this might be his best shot to get the Roses. The first step was a rocky one, but I still expect this horse to come back now that he is racing and training in full force.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Viva Vicky!

Normally, Tuesday is the day for the Super Six Derby Pix here at They Are Off. However, today at Turf Paradise featured a milestone victory for one of our riders. It just so happens to be one of the female jockeys I featured in the "Here's To The Ladies" post last week. Vicky Baze collected win number 2,000 in the Tuesday finale at Turf Paradise aboard Decarchy Park, who was the favorite in the maiden event. Vicky positioned Decarchy Park nicely just behind the pacesetting longshot Vegas Tushy during the early stages of the race and made her move on the far turn to sweep to the lead she never relinquished. It was a textbook victory for an excellent rider and certainly worthy of being the milestone score. Ironic isn't it, that Baze collects her 2,000th win aboard a horse that collected her first win at the same time. Anyway, a very hearty congratulations to Vicky Baze on winning 2,000 races in her proud career!!! Here's hoping there will be many, many more.

Tune in again tomorrow when They Are Off returns with the Super Six Derby Pix for this week. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Grade 2 $400,000 Fountain Of Youth Stakes

Kentucky Derby season is now in full swing at racetracks across the country. Gulfstream Park re-enters the spotlight on Saturday with the Grade 2 $400,000 Fountain Of Youth Stakes. The Fountain Of Youth features a field of eight going 1 1/8 miles. The two top contestants are the winner of the Grade 2 Remsen last November at Aqueduct, To Honor And Serve, and the runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf in November, Soldat. Here is the analysis:

Of course, in the never-ending pursuit of a price pick to find in any race, I am attracted to #8 Shackleford in the Fountain Of Youth at 8-1 on the morning line. He defeated a couple of the horse he will face in the Saturday race the last time he raced, which was at this distance at Gulfstream on February 5. Hopefully, Jesus Castanon will get the pace scenario he needs here with Soldat at To Honor And Serve burning each out, maybe helped to that end by Bowman's Causeway. The distance should not be a question moving forward for this Dale Romans trainee with both Storm Cat and Unbridled in the lineage. #1 Soldat is my second choice here since his last race was much more recent than To Honor And Serve. He posted a shattering Beyer Speed Figure of 103 in his 2011 debut over a sloppy track at Gulfstream on January 21. Ironically, I believe that was the race that Dialed In scratched out of because of the wet surface to run in the Grade 3 Holy Bull. Would Dialed In be such a Derby favorite right now had he faced Soldat that day? It is an interesting question. Soldat has never been worse that second in six lifetime starts. #7 To Honor And Serve will be my third selection mainly because this will be his first race since that win in the Remsen. The date of that race was November 27, so Saturday will be just one day short of three full months since his last effort. That is a long layoff since your last race, I don't care whether you are a potential superstar or not. He did post a bullet workout on February 20 at Payson Park, covering four furlongs in 48 and 1/5 seconds. I will wrap up the top four with #4 Casper's Touch. He ran second to the top pick in that race on February 5 at Saturday's distance. You will note, however, that Julien Leparoux elected to ride Bowman's Causeway instead in this race. He gets Alex Solis at the controls here, so there won't be any drop-off in rider quality for sure. I think it is worth noting that Casper's Touch started racing at Keeneland last April, which is the earliest debut of any of these horses in this field. Here is the play for the Grade 2 $400,000 Fountain Of Youth Stakes:

$5 WPS #8
$2 EX 8 with 1-2-4-7 and 1-2-4-7 with 8
TOTAL- $31

Last weekend, They Are Off did hit the exacta on the Phoenix Gold Cup, so the total for the blog so far in 2011 is MINUS $13. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Here's To The Ladies

Ry Eikleberry is going to be the leading rider at Turf Paradise for the 2010-2011 season. That much already seems certain. Through February 23, Eikleberry has 104 victories from 553 starters for a win percentage of 19%. One thing about the rider colony that resides beneath Eikleberry in the standings is the proliferation of excellent women riders that Turf Paradise has produced this season.

Anne Von Rosen is currently the leading female rider at the meeting with 57 winners from 299 starters, which matches Eikleberry's win percentage at 19%. Von Rosen has been part of a dynamic duo when paired with leading trainer Mike Chambers. It seems that every time Von Rosen and Chambers pair up, the results are either a win or a very competitive performance from the horse. Lori Keith has been winning races in bunches lately for the trainers she works for. Right now, she sits second on the ladies' ladder with 41 winners from 192 mounts. Those of you with a calculator will realize that gives her a win percentage of 21%, better than either Von Rosen or Eikleberry.

We could be looking at a milestone moment coming very soon to Turf Paradise for one of our women riders. Vicky Baze currently stands just four winners from 2,000 for her fine career. For 2010-2011, Baze has 35 winners and is third behind Von Rosen and Keith for leading lady honors. Kristina Kenney was having an outstanding season before being sidelined after winning 33 races this year. Of course, Kenney will have more something more important to worry about than getting into the Winner's Circle once her own milestone moment (and blessed event) occurs later this year. Congratulations Kristina!!!

Tammi Piermarini was a late addition to the colony at Turf Paradise, but in the same way that Anne Von Rosen and Mike Chambers have been a tough team, you can also say that about Piermarini and trainer Burton Sipp. They are very hard to overcome if they have some good horse flesh to work with. There is even an apprentice to keep your eyes on when it comes to the Turf Paradise female jockey set. Megan Fadlovich has been drawing rave reviews from many members of the public at Turf and she has earned those laurels. While she has only won ten races, she has a very strong in-the-money percentage of 27% from her 153 starters so far.

By and large, the profession of being a jockey is still one that is dominated by the boys. However, the ladies are certainly staking their claim at Turf Paradise and the racing action is much the better for it.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

There were only two true Kentucky Derby prep races this weekend, the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. Mucho Macho Man won the New Orleans race and Archarcharch won the Hot Springs race. With a paucity of action, you would think there would not be much change to the Super Six Derby Pix from last week, but you might want to reconsider that opinion as you read on:

#1- Uncle Mo- There are some who are souring on the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Champion Two-Year-Old Colt from 2010. His connections have announced a preference for the an overnight stakes race at Gulfstream over the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on March 12 as his comeback race. The Timely Writer is a one-turn mile with a $100,000 purse. Clearly, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner has enough graded earnings in the bank to pick his spots, but what does it say about him that his connections are rebuffing the tougher spot?

#2- Dialed In- The win by Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star really flattered this Nick Zito trainee because of the easy way he dusted Mucho Macho Man (and everybody else for that matter) in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream on January 30. His running style might be suitable to the Derby as well with that big come-from-behind burst, but try to think of where the speed might be? Just exactly what pace is he going to have to run at in Louisville?

#3- To Honor And Serve- Circumstances have downgraded him one spot in the Pix this week. However, he posted a bullet workout on Monday at Payson Park, covering four furlongs in a sterling 48.20 seconds. It seems a fitting final preparation for his long-awaited return to the races in the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth on Saturday. That is his supposed next start for trainer Bill Mott, who is still looking for that elusive first Derby winner.

#4- Brethren- Todd Pletcher got his elusive first Derby winner last year with WinStar's Super Saver. Well, this is his full brother and he was certainly full of run in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Derby. He put himself square in the Derby picture with that dominating performance. His next schedule race is the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. Is his presence in there keeping Uncle Mo away? I doubt it, but it would have been nice to have that showdown to look forward to, wouldn't it?

#5- Santiva- I know he ran second to Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star. However, he was wider than Mucho Macho Man all the way around the racetrack and he still showed the guts and determination I have been harping on since I made him one of my "Three To Watch in 2011". His next possible run is in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 26. I certainly hope that will not be his final race before the Derby. I can really picture him gritting out a quality race in the Kentucky Derby, if he gets that far. Will he win? Maybe and maybe not, but I am sure you will get his best effort.

#6- Mucho Macho Man- He was impressive in victory in the Risen Star this weekend and I know I have the horse he beat ahead of him, but that is mainly because I have been high on Santiva for a while and it is not like he absolutely crushed him in New Orleans. He is certainly the most experienced horse of any on this list with seven starts, but just two wins in those races and one of those was this weekend. He, too, is listed as possible for the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby next.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The $75,000 Phoenix Gold Cup

I am going to do something I rarely take the opportunity to do on the blog and play a home game on Saturday afternoon. The $75,000 Phoenix Gold Cup is one of the highlight events of the 156-day season at Turf Paradise, my home track, and with a competitive field of thirteen, including the defending champion and runner-up (both at long odds), and two horses a combined 10 for 11 over the surface, I think it is worth a look. I should mention one thing about that surface on Saturday. We are expecting rain in the Phoenix area all day on Saturday, so the track might come up muddy or sloppy. Here is the analysis:

Even with a field of thirteen for the Phoenix Gold Cup, I am hard-pressed to find a real likable longshot. My top choice is #11 Stephengothisstar. He finished second at one mile last out at Sunland Park on January 30. That ended a nice five-race win streak he had cobbled together dating back to a try in September at Remington Park in Oklahoma. His style might also work in case there is a lot of speed in this race, since he appears to like to lay just off the pace. For second, I will go right to the inside of the top pick and #10 Point Attended. One thing you have to say about Point Attended is that he REALLY likes Turf Paradise. He is a perfect 5 for 5 over the racetrack. The latest win came with a nice turn of foot in the $25,000 Swift Stakes on January 22, a race in which he defeated many of the same foes he will face again today. His last workout was a bullet on February 8, going five furlongs in 1:00.1. I will put #7 Wiredfortwotwenty in the third position. Scott Stevens has been enjoying a solid season at Turf Paradise, returning from a serious injury sustained last summer at Canterbury Park. If anyone is going to wire this field, it might just be this gelding. My main question with him is the distance. He broke his maiden at six furlongs at Hollywood in July 2008. Since then, he does not have a win at the distance. Finally, I will include a relative longshot at 10-1 with #6 New Bay. His last two efforts were with Grade 1 company in Southern California, resulting in a sixth and a seventh. I think this spot might be a little closer to his capabilities. He has been working like a speed demon at Santa Anita since the New Year. Jake Barton will be aboard. Here is the play for the $75,000 Phoenix Gold Cup:

$1 EX BOX 4-6-7-10-11
$1 TRI 10-11 with 10-11 with 2-4-6-7-9
TOTAL- $30

For the record, following last week's second-place finish by Too Experience and the Brethren-Too Experience exacta his, the blog is currently MINUS $7.30 for the year. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Winning Colors

This weekend is the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. It honors one of the finest horses ever to come out of the Bayou, Risen Star, who like so many other Triple Crown candidates won two of the three Classic events. However, unlike so many others, he is similar to Point Given in that he failed at the first hurdle, The Kentucky Derby, as opposed to the last hurdle, The Belmont Stakes. Risen Star suffered a horrendous trip around the Churchill Downs oval on the First Saturday In May, 1988. It was actually a testament to his greatness that he finished third, behind Winning Colors (pictured) and Forty Niner.

Winning Colors became just the third filly in history to win the Kentucky Derby. She still stands as the last filly to wear the Roses. She joined the very exclusive club of Regret, the 1915 winner, and Genuine Risk, the 1980 winner. Regret is considered by many racing historians to be the horse that saved the Kentucky Derby. The Derby was on hard times in the early years of this century with small fields and dwindling interest, especially from the racing hierarchy in the east. Regret changed all that with her victory. It restored the importance of the Derby and it also fixed the attitudes of the eastern racing establishment, since the winning owner, Harry Payne Whitney, spoke mightily of how crucial it was for his filly to win the Derby. Genuine Risk came along 65 years later and was probably the best three-year-old in the nation that year, male or female. She blew past Jaklin Klugman at the top of the stretch (although you gotta admit, it would have been awesome for everyone if owner Jack Klugman would have won the Derby) and held off the late charge of Rumbo to become the second filly to turn the trick at Churchill Downs, winning in the colors of owner Diana Firestone. Oddly enough, neither Regret nor Genuine Risk ever missed the money in any of their races.

The same cannot be said for Winning Colors, although her record of eight wins, three seconds, and one third from nineteen starts is nothing to sneeze at. Winning Colors was the first Kentucky Derby winner for both trainer D. Wayne Lukas and jockey Gary Stevens. Lukas, amazingly, played a role in Genuine Risk's Triple Crown record since he trained Codex, who won the 1980 Preakness after surviving an objection that he impeded the progress of Genuine Risk at the top of the stretch. Lukas would win the Derby thrice more in his Hall Of Fame career. As for Stevens, he would get to the exclusive Kentucky Derby Winner's Circle at Churchill Downs twice more after Winning Colors win. Winning Colors went right to the lead on Derby Day and quite honestly, never looked back. She was in front all the way around the racetrack and still had plenty left to hold off a belated charge from Forty Niner to win by a neck.

Remarkably, if Winning Colors is remembered for any race beside her Derby win, it is an epic loss that lives in racing history. She returned to Churchill Downs for the Breeders' Cup Distaff in 1988. Again, she attempted to steal the race on the lead and came ever so close to doing exactly that. Only a determined finish by the brilliant, undefeated Personal Ensign denied Winning Colors a Breeders' Cup victory that day. Winning Colors was voted Champion Three-Year-Old Filly in 1988 and was inducted into the United States Racing Hall Of Fame in 2000. She passed away in February 2008 after a bout with colic.

Here is the link if you would like to watch Winning Colors' triumph in the 1988 Kentucky Derby:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maKjghSxcAI. Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Photo courtesy of sportsillustrated.cnn.com

Super Six Derby Pix

There was considerable change to the Super Six Derby Pix following the three major prep races this past weekend. Brethren dominated, Comma To The Top looked a little short, and Tapizar looked a little nuts. It has now come out that Tapizar has a bone chip following his disappointing run in the Robert Lewis this weekend and is now off the Road To The Roses. There will, of course, be more to come this weekend on the Derby Trail with the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes looking very promising with a strong field of ten scheduled to go to the post. So without any further ado, here are the Super Six Derby Pix:

#1- Uncle Mo- He finally seemed to get back into form with his workout on Sunday, going four furlongs in 47.45 seconds. His previous two workouts had not been up to snuff, according to reports. There are also questions as to whether his lineage supports the 1 1/4 mile distance he will need to get on the First Saturday In May. Of course, he has been nothing short of brilliant on the racetrack. We just have to wait until the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12 to see where he is.

#2- To Honor And Serve- Continues to live off his impressive win in the Remsen last fall and he is scheduled to return to the races in the Fountain Of Youth in Florida on February 26. The Sire, Bernardini, has been in the news a lot lately due to the pending pairing with Zenyatta. He is also, you must remember, a classic winner in his own right with the 2006 Preakness to his credit. It will be just as interesting to see where this Bill Mott trainee is when he returns as the top pick.

#3- Machen- The two horses closest to him in his sensational maiden-breaking win, Sour and Birdie Beats Par, have both come back to win equally impressively. Machen followed up that first score with a route victory at 1 mile and 70 yards. He is listed at 6-1 on the morning line in the Risen Star Saturday at the Fair Grounds. I think it is a pipe dream to believe you will get anything close to 6-1 come post time. He has been the hot horse in Louisiana since the season opened in New Orleans. It wouldn't surprise me if he were the favorite in the Risen Star.

#4- Brethren- Did you see the Sam F. Davis this weekend at Tampa Bay? This horse was brilliant in victory from the outside post and made the nice win he had at Churchill Downs last fall look like a preamble to what was to come. I appreciate the field was not the strongest in the Davis last weekend. However, an impressive win is an impressive win. Keep in mind that he will likely go in the Tampa Bay Derby next and that means a matchup with Uncle Mo.

#5- Santiva- He will go postward for the first time in 2011 in the Risen Star on Saturday at Fair Grounds. He needs to build off the gutcheck win he scored in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs over Astrology last autumn. The Beyer number for that race didn't dazzle, but the heart he showed in repelling the challengers did. I will be anxious to see if he repeats that kind of determination again on Saturday if presented with another tough spot.

#6- Dialed In- The star of the Gulfstream season so far after his come-from-behind tour de force in the Holy Bull on January 30. He appeared hopelessly beaten at points in this race and when the finish line rolled around, he had won by a healthy margin. Nick Zito has won the Derby twice, but not since 1994. He has had many chances to get that third Derby victory on his record, but this one could be one of the more likely opportunities of them all.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Grade 3 $225,000 Sam F. Davis

As mentioned earlier this week on this blog, Uncle Mo will begin his three-year-old campaign in the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. If you would like a preview of some of the potential competition that the Champion Two-Year-Old will face, then the Grade 3 $225,000 Sam F. Davis on Saturday is for you. It features a field of ten going 1 1/16 miles over the main track at Tampa. Here is the analysis:

The top selection for me will be the 12-1 shot, #4 Too Experience. This will be his 2011 debut effort, but the last few workouts have been quite good. It is almost like trainer Mark Passley has been gearing the horse to be ready to debut in full flight on Saturday. Also, those horses that have run at Calder seem to have a great deal of success at other venues in recent days. Plus, you get Daniel Centeno aboard and he is always one to watch at Tampa. For second, I will go with Super Saver's brother, #10 Brethren. He is also making his 2011 debut here, but he is an undefeated 2 for 2 in his career. His win in a one-turn mile at Churchill on November 27 was certainly eye-catching. His works have also been strong leading into this go and while his brother didn't win the Tampa Bay Derby last year, I think the experience at Tampa Bay Downs clearly didn't hurt Super Saver on the way to the Roses. #3 Washington's Rules will be the third choice off a nice maiden-breaker at Gulfstream Park on January 22. Kent Desormeaux will be aboard on Saturday, as he was for the first two starts by this gelding. There are two Derby winners just a generation back in the lineage (Fusaichi Pegasus and Silver Charm). The last workout on February 5 was a bullet, going five furlongs in 59.3 seconds. I will use #8 Monzon to complete the top four selections here. Edgar Prado was up for the last two tries, which included a win in the Count Fleet over the inner track at Aqueduct on New Year's Day. This gelding has won three times in his six-race career, including both tries over main track surfaces. Here is the play for the Grade 3 $225,000 Sam F. Davis:

$5 WP #4
$1 EX BOX 2-3-4-8-10
TOTAL- $30

For the record, the blog is now MINUS $52 for the year. We are hopeful we can reverse that downward trend. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Mig

Retired jockey Richard Migliore won over 4,400 races during his career that lasted many, many years through stops at most major racing circuits around the country. Migliore never won a Triple Crown race during his extended career, but he did capture one Breeders' Cup race, the 2008 Turf Sprint aboard longshot Desert Code. Migliore did also score in a couple of major Kentucky Derby prep races (the 1985 Wood Memorial with Eternal Prince and the 2004 Florida Derby with Friends Lake). He just never had the horsepower to win on the sport's biggest stages.

Anyone who ever sat through a handicapping seminar during my time as an announcer and handicapper in Texas will know that I was no great fan of Migliore for these large-scale events. I regularly discounted his horses, his chances, and his riding abilities. Now, Migliore is returning to racing as an employee of NYRA as a "broadcast analyst and racing office associate", according to the press release on his hiring. His racing office duties will include educating apprentice riders as to safe riding techniques and riding skills. He also will be educating owners to increase their participation in the industry.

I think this is a tremendous job by NYRA to bring aboard someone who has seen it all and done just about it all in racing to enlighten the next generation. Migliore might never have been my favorite, but I certainly had to respect his ability to work with what he had and get the most of his horses and himself. By doing this, NYRA is hopefully creating a new generation of intelligent and safe jockeys who will know the ins and outs of what they are doing before they ever get themselves into a dangerous situation and, more importantly, what is right course of action once they find themselves involved in something precarious. I also think Migliore will be invaluable to the NYRA television presentation in his analyst role through his experience aboard countless horses and in countless races. Again, Migliore's experience will be invaluable to the betting public at what was basically his home stomping grounds. All in all, NYRA should be commended for bringing Migliore into the fold by not only the racing insiders, but also the betting public.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

It Makes "Sense"

Uncle Mo is the current prohibitive favorite of the "winter books" for the 2011 Kentucky Derby. I would say that honor is most deserved, given the crushing manner in which he toyed with the competition in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Should he go on to win the Kentucky Derby on May 7, Uncle Mo would become only the second winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to win the Kentucky Derby, joining 2006 Juvenile and 2007 Derby winner, Street Sense, with those laurels. That would be fitting, since it seems that the connections of Uncle Mo are following the example set by the connections of Street Sense four years ago.

To begin with, Street Sense won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in 2006, the same venue that Uncle Mo won his Juvenile at several months ago. While it might be true that Street Sense might have had a little help from the inside track bias the day of his Juvenile win, he still made it to the Winner's Circle, just like Uncle Mo. I think Uncle Mo's win was certainly the more visually impressive of the two performances. Trainer Carl Nafzger elected to only give Street Sense two prep races between the Juvenile score and the Kentucky Derby. Uncle Mo's trainer, Todd Pletcher, is also only allowing two prep races before the First Saturday In May for his charge. You might take note at this point that both Nafzger (Unbridled in 1990) and Pletcher (Super Saver in 2010) had a Derby victory on their resumes.

Nafzger went with the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes as his selections for Street Sense's prep races. Street Sense won the Tampa Bay Derby overcoming a game Any Given Saturday. He then went to Keeneland and ran on the Polytrack there, losing narrowly to artificial surface favoring Dominican in the Blue Grass. Pletcher is choosing the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial as his two preps for Uncle Mo. The reasons for this difference should be obvious to everyone, since Uncle Mo's owner, Mike Repole, is a New Yorker who prefers the Wood Memorial anyway and they get to avoid the tricky Polytrack surface so close to the big day.

Street Sense would rally from well off the pace and get a ground-saving rail ride from Calvin Borel to carry him past the underrated Hard Spun and into the Kentucky Derby Winner's Circle at Churchill Downs. He would come up a little bit short in the Preakness, getting tackled by eventual 2007 Horse Of The Year, Curlin, in the shadow of the wire. Street Sense would skip the Belmont, but come back later in the summer to win both the Jim Dandy and Travers at Saratoga. The historian in me feels that Uncle Mo, like Street Sense, might come up short in the remainder of the Triple Crown with only two prep races before the Derby, which is a shame since he could possess the qualities of a Triple Crown winner. The practical side of me says that the connections are currently only interested in winning the first leg of the Triple Crown (and the most historically significant anyway) in the Kentucky Derby. I guess in the final analysis, you cannot question anything that Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher have done so far with Uncle Mo, at least to this point in time anyway. If they don't win that Derby they are expected to win, there will be plenty of time for everyone to second-guess them in the aftermath.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone...GOODBYE!

The Grade 1 $500,000 Donn Handicap

Gulfstream Park's season doesn't really begin for me until the running of the Donn. Yes, I know Dialed In was exactly that last weekend in the Grade 3 Holy Bull, but that's really a prep for the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth, which is a prep for the Grade 1 Florida Derby. The Donn always seems to be the first big race of the year on the calendar and it kinds of kickstarts the true racing season. This year's version of the Donn features a field of nine going 1 1/8 miles and here is the analysis:

I might have a screw loose with this one, but I actually think #1 I Want Revenge is due to return to his form from the spring of 2009 and put forth a big effort in here on Saturday. In both of his 2010 starts, you will notice trouble at the start in the notes for each race. He finished behind Haynesfield in the Grade 2 Suburban after a year plus away from the track and the Grade 3 Iselin was just a dull effort. Is he sitting on a big race or not? I am not sure, but with a morning line of 6-1, he is an attractive enough price for me to consider it a possibility. For second, I will go with #3 Morning Line. He was sent off at even-money in the Grade 3 Hal's Hope at Gulfstream last time out on January 8, but I tend to want to write that one off given the strenuous Breeders' Cup effort he put forth and the heartbreaking defeat he endured. I know the story this week of the Sheikh purchasing part of him with the idea of pointing him to the Dubai World Cup. It remains to be seen if he can go that far against the caliber of field he will be facing at Meydan, but for Saturday, I find him second-best. I will use #8 Rule. Rule is just one of those horses for me that we all encounter during our wagering adventures. I always seem to be on the wrong side of the aisle with him. When I don't like him, he runs big, and when I do like him, he doesn't. He posted a bullet workout on January 30 and is making the second start off the last layoff here. That means I find some things to like, I just feel I need to be cautious with him in this spot. Finally, I will round out the top four with #6 Fly Down. Remember what I said about Morning Line losing his first start after the Breeders' Cup. Well, that same theory can be applied to Fly Down. His works since the Cup have been quite good, but this will be his first real action since Churchill Downs. That Cup race was a big effort for Fly Down, closing smartly to finish within four lengths of Blame and Zenyatta and get third. Does he rebound today or not? Here is the play for the Grade 1 $500,000 Donn Handicap:

$5 WP #1
$1 EX BOX 1-3-6-8
$1 TRI 1-3 with 1-3 with 4-5-6-8-9
TOTAL- $32

By the way, the tally for 2011 right now is MINUS $20. We hope to get back on the plus side Saturday. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

A Truly Rising Star

Machen, who is 2 for 2 at the Fair Grounds following another strong victory this past weekend, is now logically being pointed to the Grade 2 Risen Star at the New Orleans oval. One can only believe that the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 26 will follow for the relatively inexperienced, but very capable colt.

The Beyer figure for the win on Sunday was only 76, which didn't come close to the 95 he posted in his six furlong debut win on January 2. The Sunday race was one mile and 70 yards, so you might be able to chalk it up to the aforementioned inexperience, especially going around two turns.

Whatever the reason for the slower effort in the second start, Machen has so far earned the right to be the most exciting thing in New Orleans since the Saints were winning the Super Bowl about this time last year. Now, whether he goes on to improve from here is a question that trainer Neil Howard and jockey Jamie Theriot will have to address. I am certainly thinking he will be the favorite in the Risen Star and deservedly so.

Of course, he will have to come through in both the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby if he is to take the next step after that, which would be the Kentucky Derby on May 7. The sad fact, though, is that only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then added the Roses afterward (Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996). Maybe Machen will be the horse to make it a Triple Crown of Louisiana Derby winners to win the big one on the First Saturday In May.

Tune in tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Super Six Derby Pix

It is a tradition unlike any other here at They Are Off. From the very first days of this blog, I have offered my Super Six Derby Pix in the weeks leading up to the big day in Louisville. Now, Mine That Bird and Super Saver weren't really what I call "prominent" in my opinions in the weeks preceding the Derby, but we are ready to go again with the first edition of the 2011 Super Six Derby Pix:

#1- Uncle Mo- His definitive win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile earned him this spot a long while ago. He destroyed a strong contingent of two-year-olds in that race and great things are expected out of not just him, but the connections as well. Owner Mike Repole is being hailed as a new brand of owner and just the tonic an "ailing" Thoroughbred industry needs. Now, just how "ailing" the industry is remains a subjective thought, but that is another story. Trainer Todd Pletcher got off the Derby donut with Super Saver's win last year. Can he make it two in a row?

#2- Boys At Tosconova- The runner-up to Uncle Mo in the Juvenile was allegedly supposed to run in the Grade 3 Holy Bull this weekend, but the connections opted to skip it. Of course, this decision leads to a plethora of "What's wrong with Boys At Tosconova?" ideas fermenting in everyone's head. A valid point, though, was raised on The Paulick Report Derby Index as to whether an offspring of Officer can get the Derby distance. It promises to be worth watching.

#3- To Honor And Serve- The winner of the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last fall in New York, To Honor And Serve accomplished that win so impressively that he became a de facto contender for the Derby the moment he hit the finish line. It was his second straight graded victory following the score in the Grade 2 Nashua. Now, the question becomes just how good are those victories after the runner-up in both, Mucho Macho Man, got drilled by Nick Zito's Dialed In in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on Sunday?

#4- Comma To The Top- The West Coast's leading Derby candidate overcame an exceedingly long shoe situation in the rainy paddock at Hollywood Park to win the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity. The win in the CashCall was the third in a row for the gelding (keeping in mind that Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only two gelding's to win the Derby since 1929), but now the question is what next. The original thought, I believe, was to go to the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby in the Bay Area over the Grade 2 Robert Lewis in Southern California. What does that express about the connections confidence in the horse? Are they searching for an easier spot in Northern California and potentially ducking a tougher spot at Santa Anita? I don't think that is the reason, but I find it a questionable decision if it comes to pass.

#5- Tapizar- Steve Asmussen has been the leading trainer in North America so many times, I am losing count. Heck, he might be losing count. One thing he has not won yet is the Kentucky Derby. Yes, he has a Classic win (Curlin in the 2007 Preakness), but we all know the Preakness is not the Derby. Pletcher broke his Derby jinx last year, is it Asmussen's turn this year? The winner of the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita, it would be unique to see Asmussen going the Western route to Louisville. Normally, you think of him more as an Eastern guy. In reality, he is just a winning machine everywhere. The Sire, Tapit, has been producing strong progeny almost from the get-go.

#6- Santiva- I know his highest career Beyer figure doesn't nearly match the other horses on this list and I know he hasn't raced since breaking his maiden in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club in November at Churchill Downs. However, I was truly impressed by his tenacity in repelling the challenge of Astrology in that race and Astrology certainly isn't a slouch either. It is likely that Santiva will be appearing in Florida shortly, possibly to run in the Fountain Of Youth. I, for one, will be keenly piqued to see how he does in his return to the races.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

New Shooters...Already?

The Kentucky Derby is now 96 days away. Of course, you have the prohibitive set of favorites that have already established themselves through their doings in the waning days of 2010. Uncle Mo won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in about as devastating a fashion as possible. Even with that, the runner-up, Boys At Tosconova, might still be considered one of the favorites, although his absence from the Grade 3 Holy Bull on Sunday at Gulfstream is considered a glaring one. To Honor And Serve's victory in the Remsen last fall stamped him as one to definitely consider, although the way that runner-up Mucho Macho Man disappointed at Gulfstream yesterday might lessen that victory a tad. The West Coast is not without its candidates either with CashCall Futurity winner, Comma To The Top, and Sham Stakes winner, Tapizar, considered in the vanguard.

This weekend DID produce some new faces to the Kentucky Derby picture, mainly in the southeast. Machen, trained by Neil Howard, repeated his devastating maiden victory in an Allowance score at Fair Grounds, winning by a widening five lengths and paying a salty $2.10 to win. The horse that ran second to Machen in the maiden race, the Al Stall-trained Sour, broke the maiden at less than even-money on Monday at Fair Grounds. It is my opinion that one of those two horses will likely be the winner of the Louisiana Derby, if not complete the Risen Star-Louisiana Derby double. Nick Zito might have another solid Derby candidate in Dialed In, who came from well off the pace to run past everyone and win the Holy Bull. His style seems reminiscent of Zito's 2010 Derby horse, Ice Box, another stone closer. The runner-up in the Holy Bull was Gourmet Dinner, winner of the Delta Jackpot late in 2010 to clinch a spot in the gate at Churchill Downs. All he did yesterday was re-establish his credentials as a possible Derby horse with a respectable second-place that makes one think his poor effort in the CashCall was likely caused either by the artificial surface or the interminable wait he experienced in the saddling paddock.

I just rattled off ten possible Derby candidates in two paragraphs and it is likely that in the next 96 days, we will see one or more establish themselves as chalk for the Roses, one or more disappear from the Derby Road without leaving an oil slick, and several more step up from the background and make their cases most emphatically. 96 days seems like forever, but believe me, it will go by before you know it.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The $500,000 Sunshine Millions Classic

The Sunshine Millions is Saturday afternoon at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. It will match up some of the finest Florida and California-breds in training right now in a series of six races, three at each racetrack. The highlight of the Gulfstream card is the $500,000 Sunshine Millions Classic, which will consist of ten Florida-breds led by morning line favorite, First Dude. None of the races in the Sunshine Millions are graded and in fact, there is only one graded race on the docket on Saturday, one that doesn't really interest me that much, so let's take a look at the Sunshine Millions Classic:

The top choice is 12-1 shot, #4 Black Hills. Black Hills should benefit from what promises to be a hot pace in the Classic from First Dude, Tackleberry, and Birdrun. It is my thought that those three will burn each other out and set things up for a nice closer to get up and take it late. Black Hills is my choice to do exactly that. He managed to do that job nicely in his last nine races in New Mexico, finishing either first or third in each of them. Don't be fooled by the fact that these races were in New Mexico. I think that Mine That Bird proved that racing in the Land Of Enchantment has come a long way in a short period of time. For second, I will use the morning-line choice, #1 First Dude. I find it interesting that despite the number of excellent races this colt put forth in 2010, he has not won since breaking the maiden at Gulfstream Park on January 30. That's right, the Preakness runner-up and third-place finisher in races like the Grade 1 Travers, Grade 1 Haskell, and even the Belmont Stakes, is still eligible for non-winners of two. Of the expected speed horses in this race, I think he might be the most apt to sit back off the pace a touch and try to make a middle move for the lead, but that still be not be enough to hold off the cavalry here. John Velazquez rides the third choice in here, #10 Honour The Deputy. The grey gelding has not raced since a victory at one mile at Laurel. He has won three times in four lifetime starts and has that come-from-behind running style which should work in this spot. I do find it odd that this horse trained up to this race at Santa Anita before shipping east for it. This will be his first start for new trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. For fourth, I will use #5 Birdrun, a Bill Mott trainee making his first start of 2011. His last two workouts were bullets and his last win at Calder in a state-restricted stakes race was impressive and he defeated some of those he will be facing here. Here is the play for the $500,000 Sunshine Millions Classic:

$5 WP #4
$1 EX BOX 1-4-5-9-10
TOTAL- $30

Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Perfect Match

That is what most of the people associated with the two horses in question seem to think. Zenyatta, the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic winner and 2010 Horse Of The Year, will be bred to Bernardini, the 2006 Preakness winner and Champion Three-Year-Old the same season, for her first mating session.

There had been some question as to who the Sire would be for the most famous Dam to come along in many a moon. Bernardini's Sire, A.P. Indy, was given consideration from what I understand, but the connections thought better of a May-December romance for Zenyatta's first foal. In fact, the connections seem to think that Bernardini and Zenyatta fit together nicely. According to the drf.com story on the situation, David Ingordo, advisor to the Mosses, said "There were physical reasons, the two complement each other,” he said, “and there were pedigree reasons, the two complement each other. Everybody agreed.”

Certainly, Bernardini is the logical choice for such a tall order. In the last two years, Bernardini has covered 255 mares with a relatively successful live foal rate, according to The Jockey Club and the drf.com story. His pedigree is impeccable and his racing record nearly so. It will be most interesting to see what this pairing will produce when the time comes. There should be some interest in what the foal will be named. Zendini, Bernardyatta, or maybe Sting will have an idea or two?

It will also be interesting to see who would be next in line for Zenyatta. Certainly, a horse like Tapit has established himself as an outstanding Sire in a relatively brief time, and wouldn't it be a hoot if Blame and Zenyatta were to produce a foal after all the feisty discussion that captivated the racing public since the Breeders' Cup Classic. Certainly, there is a part of me whimsical enough to want to see an all-Moss affair with Giacomo getting his chance to mate with Zenyatta. Whichever way those that make such decisions lean, they must be aware that these decisions are crucial to many racing and Zenyatta fans. If ever anyone earned the title, "The People's Horse", it was the mighty Zenyatta.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Call Me Ismael...

That is the opening line of one of the most famous pieces of American literature ever penned, Moby Dick by Herman Melville. It is the gripping story of Captain Ahab and his constant, fruitless pursuit of The Great White Whale, Moby Dick. Ismael ends up being the lone survivor of the quest of the Pequod at the end of the tale when The Great White Whale destroys the ship and Captain Ahab ends up lashed to the whale to meet his doom.

Well, dear reader, I have my own Moby Dick now. Yes, I am hapless Captain Ahab railing against the devastating force of The Great White Whale that has threatened to become an albatross around my neck. My Moby Dick is the 50-cent Pick Five wager at Turf Paradise, which I believe would double as the Pequod if the comparison is to go to the n-th degree. I have yet to hit this wager despite numerous attempts since its introduction at the start of this current season. I have gotten 4 of 5 I cannot tell you how many times, but of course, never one of those times that it actually pays 4 of 5 and creates a carryover.

My first effort to try and harpoon the whale came early in the season. As a matter of fact, it was the first time it had generated a significant carryover and I had secured the first four races in the sequence and faced a six-horse field, scratched down from a field of nine. I should mention that when I originally handicapped this particular race all the horses I initially would use in the wager ended up scratched, so I reconfigured the last leg before I placed the wager and ended up picking three of the six horses. In addition to the three I had used on my ticket, two of the three I didn't use were paying 4 of 5 for decent returns. My three selections were paying anywhere from $1,500 to $7,000, depending on who won. Of course, the one horse I did not include in the ticket or receive the 4 of 5 consolation from wound up winning the final leg of the Pick Five. I don't know if any of you have ever described to those listening over a public address system yourself NOT winning $3,500 (the amount the Pick Five paid to the horse that won), but I can assure you it is not a pleasant experience.

Since that day, as I have already mentioned, there have been numerous other encounters with near glory with 4 of 5 winners on my ticket. Today was the latest such occurrence. There was a carryover in excess of $7,000 in the Pick Five pool today, so I handicapped and put together a modest ticket using two horses in the first four legs and three in the final leg. This time, I was put out of my misery early as my third choice won the first leg and knocked me out right away. However, my top overall choice won three of the next four legs (including the leg I went three-deep in) and my second choice won the other leg. The Pick Five paid $2,488. Had I went three-deep in the first leg rather than the last leg, I have the winning ticket. Had I singled one of those three top choice winners and spread out in the first leg, I have the winning ticket. I ended up with three top choices, a second choice and a third choice winning and still managed to NOT hit the Pick Five. I am able to rationalize this myself, though, because in that first leg, I thought the two horses I did include in the wager stood out above the field more than the rest, so I am actually comfortable with the fact I didn't go three-deep.

So, dear reader, I am Captain Ahab, lashed to the side of The Great White Whale until the day comes that I finally exact sweet victory from these repeated tales of woe. To paraphrase from another piece of classic American literature, Gone With The Wind, "As God is my witness, I will cash the winning ticket on the Pick Five before the end of the season." I don't care if it pays $4.80 or $4,800, I will hit the Pick Five before Sunday, May 8.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Mighty Miesque

With the prominence of Goldikova over the last three years in the Breeders' Cup Mile and the fact that she is now probably the finest horse currently in training in the world, it is ironic that we all learned of the passing of Miesque last week at the age of 27. It is all the more ironic when you consider that Freddie Head, the man that rode Miesque in all but one of her sixteen lifetime starts, is the trainer of Goldikova. That means that Head has been associated with two of the finest distaff milers that we have seen since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in the 1980s.

Miesque was the first horse ever to win the same Breeders' Cup race in back-to-back years, scoring in the Mile in 1987 and 1988. Goldikova is the first horse ever to win the same Breeders' Cup race in three consecutive years, winning the Mile in 2008, 2009, and 2010. The connections between the two are nearly uncanny. You must remember that Miesque was more than just those two straight wins in the Mile. She was maybe the finest miler produced by Europe until her near-doppelganger, Goldikova, came along twenty years later. She lost twice at the distance, it is true, but one of those came over soft going at Longchamp and the other came in the lone race that Head didn't ride her, the 1987 Group I Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot, in what was a rare trip outside of France for her. Oddly enough, both of those losses came in the starts immediately preceding her triumphs in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Maybe that is why she entered both of those Cup races as not the betting favorite. In 1987, she cruised to a 3 1/2 length victory, while the favorite, Sonic Lady, ran third. In 1988, she dominated the field and won by four widening lengths in a tour-de-force performance, while the favorite, Warning, ran 11th of twelve starters, one of which was the winner of the Belmont Stakes the year before, Bet Twice. It was a fitting way to put an exclamation point on her magnificent career. By the way, her nearest competition in the 1988 Mile, Steinlen, would return to win the race in 1989.

Here is the link to watch the replay of the 1988 Mile victory by Miesque: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RA_itXjfcFw. Tune in tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Fitting Farewell

The Eclipse Awards in Miami on Monday night provided the storybook finish to Zenyatta's career that the racing public was denied at the Breeders' Cup, when she missed out on finishing her career a perfect 20 for 20. Of course, she lost that night to Blame by a head in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

In the final Horse Of The Year balloting, Zenyatta's margin of victory was slightly more substantial than that. She received 128 votes to Blame's 102 votes. The third finalist, Goldikova, received five votes. There were three voters, who returned ballots with no choice for Horse Of The Year, which I cannot fathom for the life of me. It makes me think of members of the Baseball Writers Association of America voters that return blank ballots for the Hall Of Fame in a given year. It is a PRIVILEGE to have a vote for these honors, the very least you could do is have the decency to return a selection.

Granted, in the piece I did where I documented my Eclipse Award thoughts, I begged off on the Steeplechase Division because I had insufficient knowledge of the nominees. If you don't have sufficient knowledge of Zenyatta, Blame, or Goldikova, then really you shouldn't have a vote in the first place.

Getting off of that tangent and back to the main point, Zenyatta is the Horse Of The Year and her connections, owners Jerry and Ann Moss, trainer John Shirreffs, and jockey Mike Smith were all in attendance for the ceremony and they received a well-deserved standing ovation from their contemporaries after the announcement was made. While Zenyatta was also named Champion Older Mare, the Mosses did not win the Owner category (WinStar Farm did) and Shirreffs did not win the Trainer category (Todd Pletcher did). Somehow, I think that all of them were quite content in the aftermath of those individual defeats to go home with the biggest prize of the evening when all was said and done.

If you would like to watch the announcement of Horse Of The Year, here is the link to the DRF website page on the Eclipse Awards: http://www.drf.com/news/zenyatta-takes-horse-year-over-blame.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

The Grade 2 $150,000 San Fernando Stakes

Unfortunately, the big horse in this year's edition of the Grade 2 San Fernando, Sidney's Candy, has been scratched and will not run. Fortunately, that might make the race a little bit more competitive and bettor friendly since Sidney's Candy would have been an overwhelming favorite in here and likely would have run like it. So, with Sidney's Candy out, where do we go? Here is the analysis:

I will go with the apparent speed horse in this field, the Bob Baffert-trained #1 Tweebster. This horse is currently working a three-race winning streak and while none of those wins have come against anything like he will be facing here, I think he just might steal the whole thing on the front end. The offspring of the current prime Sire, Tapit, might have to contend with the other Baffert trainee in here, but I think that he could be the best one in this field on Saturday. For second, I will select #2 Paris Vegas, who might come running late to inject a price into the proceedings at 15-1 on the morning line here. His race in the Grade 1 Malibu was a disaster, as he finished way behind the track record pace of Twirling Candy that day. However, he stretches back out in distance here and gets Brice Blanc in the saddle. For third, I will AGAIN return to the well and select #6 Thiskyhasnolimit. I was on his side in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and was rebuked. I had him in the mix in the aforementioned Malibu and again denied. I will include him here and make myself feel like that guy that keeps waiting for the girl to out with him (Maybe it's today, Maybe it's today). Thiskyhasnolimit has broken my heart before and I half-expect him to do it again here. Finally, I will go with #5 Do It All, who gets Pat Valenzuela in the saddle on Saturday. The Eoin Harty runner has not actually crossed the finish line first yet in his career, but a win off of a DQ is still a win. The last work on the Cushion track at Hollywood is enough to pique my interest. Here is the play for the Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes:

$5 WP #1
$1 EX BOX 1-2-5-6-7
$1 TRI 1 with 2-5-6-7 with 2-5-6-7
TOTAL- $38

Last week's Bet Three at Gulfstream was a total failure, so the loss of $24 there reduces our 2011 profit to $7.40. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

My Eclipse Award Picks

There are 17 Eclipse Awards that will be given out on Monday night, January 17 at the Fountainbleau Hotel in Miami, Florida. Did you know that Jerry Lewis filmed his classic comedy, "The Bellboy" at this hotel? Maybe you don't care, but I figured I would throw that in as a "fun fact". So, without any further ado, here are my selections for 16 of the Eclipse Award categories (I am not familiar enough with the Steeplechase division to make any kind of pick in that category):



Apprentice Jockey: Omar Moreno, who has won more money and more races than any other apprentice in 2010. Those two points outweigh anything else in this category.



Jockey: Ramon Dominguez, who finished 2010 second in wins with 369 and earnings of $17,411,880. That is the most for any jockey in the country. If I am going to base the first selection on this criteria, I feel I should be consistent, especially since Dominguez is second behind a rider not nominated against him and he dominates the toughest circuit in the land in New York.



Breeder: Adena Springs. I know it is in vogue to bash Frank Stronach lately for his management of Magna and the situation that some of this countries most glorious or historic racetracks (Gulfstream, Pimlico, and Santa Anita) find themselves in, however, that should not take away from the fact that the man runs the finest breeding program on the continent. Adena Springs has won this Award the last seven years and I see no reason that it shouldn't be eight straight. Adena Springs horses won 506 races in 2010 and earned $13,369,852 in purse money.



Owner: WinStar Farm gets my selection here over Ann and Jerry Moss. Yes, the Mosses did a wonderful thing bringing Zenyatta back for another campaign, but the pickings after her were a little light for the couple. WinStar won two of the big three in 2010 with Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby and Drosselmeyer in the Belmont Stakes. WinStar was also the leading owner by earnings in North America with $5,183,379.



Trainer: This might actually be the toughest category of the entire program for me, but I will side with Bob Baffert. In all likelihood, Baffert was robbed of another Derby win by the post position draw of Lookin At Lucky, who was the best three-year-old by a long way this year. Baffert also won 124 races from 500 starters and earned $11,103,463 in purses. Baffert also picked up his 2,000th career victory in 2010, which is quite a landmark for any trainer.

Female Sprinter: Dubai Majesty won the big one in this category, the Grade 1 Filly And Mare Sprint on Friday at the Breeders' Cup and she deserves the honors here. She defeated her closest competitor in the division (Champagne D'Oro) at the Breeders' Cup and she even prevailed in an ungraded turf sprint at Monmouth Park. She is a versatile and deserving champion in this division.

Male Sprinter: While Big Drama won the Sprint at the Breeders' Cup, I still feel that Majesticperfection proved he was the better horse when he crushed the entire field (including Big Drama) in the Vanderbilt at Saratoga over the summer. It is not his fault he was injured and denied the chance to finish off what was a championship season. Majesticperfection is my pick.

Female Turf: Goldikova is maybe the most brilliant horse currently running on the planet and to deny her this award simple because she made only one start here is ridiculous. Anyone voting against her for that reason is wrong, in my opinion. Her third straight win in the Breeders' Cup Mile was maybe the most impressive of the three and she gets the edge in here.

Male Turf: You know it strikes me as odd that many of the same scribes who won't vote for Zenyatta for Horse Of The Year because it isn't a lifetime achievement award are going to vote for Gio Ponti here. I don't get that because he really didn't impress in 2010, winning just twice and not being super awesome either time. I actually think Winchester's season was better and he beat Gio Ponti to boot in the Manhattan.

Older Female: Zenyatta, do I really need to go on?

Older Male: Blame, see Zenyatta comment above.

Three-Year-Old Female: Blind Luck won the Kentucky Oaks, the Alabama, and ran second behind the older Unrivaled Belle in the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic. She beat her closest rival in the division, Havre De Grace, every time they met save one. Blind Luck is the deserving selection here.

Three-Year-Old Male: I know what I said about Majesticperfection's injury not costing him my vote earlier, however, I still go with Lookin At Lucky over Eskendereya. Lookin At Lucky was the Champion Two-Year-Old coming in and had a magnificent 2010, winning the Preakness, Haskell, Indiana Derby, and running a strong fourth in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He never seemed to run a really poor race all year and he gets my selection.

Two-Year-Old Female: Awesome Feather went six for six in 2010 and won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. There really is no alternative to picking her here.

Two-Year-Old Male: Uncle Mo won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in dominating fashion, a performance that stamped him as the early favorite for the 2011 Kentucky Derby to run over the same track in May. By the way, he drilled his closest competition for this honor (Boys At Tosconova) in the Juvenile. No contest, Uncle Mo wins.

Horse Of The Year: I have already made my feelings for the category known in a previous post. I am picking Zenyatta and I really don't care if you think I am a bozo or not for doing it. I don't care that she lost by a head (or less) to Blame in the Classic. For all she did for racing and for coming as close to perfect as anyone ever could, Zenyatta is the Horse Of The Year.

There will be no post on Thursday since I am going to enjoy a Hockey Night In Arizona. Tune in again on Friday for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Martha's Oaklawn Preview

Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas will be starting its 2011 racing season this Friday afternoon and their always-entertaining meeting will last through April 16. Terry Thompson was the leading rider in 2010 and Steve Asmussen was the leading trainer last year. Both will be on hand to try and repeat those titles. SureBet Racing News' Martha Claussen has a preview of the 2011 Oaklawn season in the latest issue of the magazine. Here is the link to read the article, starting on Page 5:

http://www.surebetracingnews.com/Newspaper_pdf/SureBet_1-11-2011_final.pdf

Hopefully, everyone will have a profitable and enjoyable season at Oaklawn Park. Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

A Gulfstream Park Bet Three

There are two Stakes races on the Gulfstream Park program Saturday afternoon and they are separated by a very competitive turf race in the middle, so that tells me that we need to investigate a Pick Three (or as Gulfstream calls it, The Bet Three) on races 7, 8, and 9 from Hallandale on Saturday. Here is a brief look at each of the three races and the horses that will be used for the wager:

Race 7- The $100,000 Spectacular Bid- Named for the 1979 Derby and Preakness winner (not to mention the 1980 Horse Of The Year), this is a six-furlong sprint that should feature quite a bit of speed. The top pick is #5 Leave Of Absence, who is coming off of a Beyer figure of 94 in his last go, a maiden breaking six-furlong win at Aqueduct on November 10. He went the six furlongs in 1:09.2 that day. I also like #1 Winchill, who gets Johnny Velazquez aboard and whose two wins were both at six furlongs, #7 Dual Exhauzt, who posted a 93 Beyer at Calder last time out and you cannot discount those Calder horses anywhere they go anymore, and #8 Cane Garden Bay, who is 8-1 on the morning line and ran in a route Grade 2 at Churchill Downs last out behind Santiva, who was one of my Three To Watch in 2011.

Race 8- Optional Claimer on Turf (1 Mile)- This could be quite the difficult spot to trip up on in this sequence. The top selection in this one will be #11 Vanquisher, who is entering this easier spot (based on his recent races) out of Stakes company, running third in the Diliberto at Fair Grounds. He has two blistering Tampa workouts entering this try today. I also like #5 Rogue Victory, who has been off since the Saratoga summer season, but he has been working lights out also recently. I don't think you can ignore#4 Guys Reward, who might end of going off as the favorite in this one. He ran third in the Grade 3 Commonwealth at Churchill Downs in November over the turf there and gets Kent Desormeaux up Saturday. I am also going to include #8 Saint Dynaformer, who won last out with Paco Lopez aboard and looks to live to leave out at 12-1 on the morning line, #6 Jimmy Simms, who could steal it on the front end with Eibar Coa, and #10 Asphalt, who won in a similar situation at Gulfstream almost one year to the day.

Race 9- The Grade 3 $100,000 Hal's Hope- I think this could shape up a couple of ways. Either the speed of the speed (Morning Line) is going to run the other speed (Tackleberry and Rule) into the ground and win going away or the closers are going to make this very interesting when they hit the finish. I am going to side with Situation A here and single #3 Morning Line in the Bet Three. I just think he is going to be far too classy for these when it counts on Saturday.

Here is the Bet Three play on Races 7-9 at Gulfstream Park on Saturday:

$1 BET THREE: 1-5-7-8 with 4-5-6-8-10-11 with 3
TOTAL- $24

By the way, this year I will be tracking profit and loss on these suggested wagers. So far for 2011, the blog shows a profit of $31.40. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Martha's 2010 Bloopers

Martha Claussen of SureBet Racing News is a frequent contributor to this blog and the time has come for her look back at 2010. Specifically, her look back at what went wrong in 2010. Her bloopers and blunders article in this month's edition of SureBet Racing News starts on Page 7 of the following link, enjoy!

http://www.surebetracingnews.com/Newspaper_pdf/SureBet_1-4-2011-final.pdf

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

Behind The Bagel

A couple of my friends e-mailed me a message last week detailing the NHC Tour Handicapping Contest scheduled for Sunday afternoon and advised me to sign up to play. I like to think of myself as at least an adequate handicapper, so I ponied up my $45 (down from $100 last year) and signed up for the NHC Tour. After all, I have the same dreams that many of you do of going to Las Vegas and winning the National Handicapping Championship myself.

Having done that, I took out my copy of the Sunday Racing Form and started to handicap the ten necessary races for the contest from Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita. I actually took the time to also check out the weather for New York, New Orleans, and Los Angeles to see if any precipitation was expected for those areas on Sunday and got down to business. My previous handicapping tournament experience is limited to say the least. I have participated in just two live tournaments (one at The Orleans in Las Vegas and one at Louisiana Downs) and have dabbled only here and there online. I determined that I would use a mixed strategy of favorites and longshots to try and at least make sure I was on the board at some point and would be able to avoid the embarrassment of going oh-fer, while still taking the approach of looking for an available price to try and pad the bankroll.

The first race in the contest was one of those races I elected to take a chance on to start the contest with a big shot. The horse that came out with the best figure according to my handicapping was #6 Three In The Bag. However, I thought the #9 End Of The Gulch had a chance to spring the upset and used him instead. I was feeling good about things at the top of the stretch when the #9 took the lead, only to quickly feel my stomach turn when the #6 surged on past and went on to win, paying $9.10 to win and $3.80 to place. No matter, it was just the first race and there was plenty of more action to come. Have you ever heard of the term "a harbinger of things to come"? Well, there couldn't have been a more glaring example of this as race after race passed and I was getting nothing for my efforts. The worst of the worst from my perspective came in the third race of the contest, the sixth of the day from The Big A. I used the #10 Pin as my selection and he was actually bet down from the morning-line of 8-1 to a still reasonable 6-1. The favorite, #1 Fuhrlang, dug in to win a neat stretch duel with the second-place finisher, #8 Pegasus Papou at 66-1. I have an annoying habit of looking back at the past performances to see what I missed in my handicapping after a particular race and I did that here. To my horror, I finally noticed that #8 Pegasus Papou had finished AHEAD of my selection the last time the two horses faced each other. I normally look for things like that when I handicap and had missed that and missed a chance to get a $37.40 place payoff for that #8 horse or whatever the payoff would have been capped at. It was at this point that I realized what I was up against on Sunday.

Essentially, it went from bad to worse as the day progressed. The sixth race of the contest, I selected a nice 15-1 shot from the Fair Grounds, #6 Birdie Beats Par. I watched as that one ran a good third behind the impressive win of #4 Machen. Third place means bupkus when you are in a contest that pays win and place only. I even inhaled poor Katie Mikolay into my afternoon of misfortune. She had selected the same horse I liked in the ninth race of the contest at Fair Grounds as a possible longshot candidate, #14 Bud Is Choice. She didn't pick it to win, but she did have it to hit the board. Needless to say, #14 is still running and searching for the finish line at Fair Grounds. Katie, I can only offer my sincere apologies for gathering you up as an unsuspecting victim in this miserable vortex.

So, for all of my mighty efforts, I ended up with a big, fat zero as my total for the contest. That's right, a zero, not one win or place, nothing. I finished in a multiple tie for 1,372nd place with my colossal earnings of zero with the rest of the schmoes who got nothing and liked it. Does this dissuade me from trying again? Do I feel like I wasted my $45 for joining the NHC Tour? Absolutely not on both counts. I will be back in there plugging again, just like any handicapper who has an atrocious day at the track and with any luck (and maybe a 4-5 shot here and there), I will lift myself out of the abyss. It was fun to focus on some other races while I was busy calling races and trying to hit the Pick 5 at Turf Paradise (getting 4 out of 5 for the 8,000,000th time this meet, I might add). I can't wait to do it again and I am sure that every last one of those other schmoes stuck at zero feels the same way I do.

Tune in again tomorrow for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!