Friday, October 01, 2010

Belmont $500,000 Guaranteed All-Stakes Pick Four

Belmont Park has cancelled live racing the last two days due to a horrible storm that has seemingly stalled over the East Coast and just won't go away. The amount of rain that the main and turf tracks at Belmont has accepted in those days could cause quite a bit of craziness with their big Breeders' Cup preview day, which includes a $500,000 All-Graded Stakes Pick Four. Here is the analysis for that Pick Four play:

Race 7- The Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational- I think that #7 Shared Account is going to be the winner here and the expected soft turf should certainly benefit her performance on Saturday. I will also use #2 Red Desire because she might be the best of the bunch in here. Keep in mind that she bested Dubai World Cup winner, Gloria De Campeo, earlier this year on the Tapeta at Meydan.

Race 8- The Grade 1 Beldame- This is the race that has been most significantly affected by the rain as far as I can tell. It is only a field of six, but I plan on using four of them in here. #1 Life At Ten is the top selection, even coming off her third in the Personal Ensign with Johnny V riding for Todd Pletcher. #4 Unrivaled Belle has never caught an off-track before, but her Tomlinson figure indicates that she might like it anyway. #6 Persistently is the one that topped the top pick in the Personal Ensign and it is possible that she could do it again. The one I am using due to the wet conditions will be #2 Miss Match. She is two for two over wet surfaces and if any moisture remains in the track, she is a must include at 15-1 on the morning line.

Race 9- The Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational- #10 Winchester is a Christophe Clement trainee that has never been worse than second in three tries over the Widener Turf Course at Belmont Park. He ran second behind Al Khali, who I am not using here, in the Grade 2 Bowling Green last time out on September 11. #9 Paddy O'Prado loved the wet dirt in the Kentucky Derby enough to run third at 12-1 and round out a big trifecta. He has won his last three turf starts, two at Colonial and one at Arlington. My only question with him today is whether or not he can beat the older horses he faces here. #2 Never On Sunday relished the soft turf at Longchamp in winning a Group 1 race last May in France. However, he has been away from the races since March, which might be a tad too much to overcome here. Finally, I will use #11 Interpatation. Don't ignore history's lessons with him. He won this race last year over a soft turf course, beating a much better than this year's version of Gio Ponti in doing so. That was his last win, but he always has liked the soft going.

Race 10- The Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup- I think #2 Blame will be a single in this field, although Rail Trip could give him some difficulty. Haynesfield might have been a throw-in here also if I weren't convinced that Blame is going to run big on Saturday. This might be hard to believe, but this should be only the second time that Blame will be the betting favorite this year. He was favored in his first start (the Schaefer at Pimlico on Preakness Day) and was not favored in either of the last two victories.

Here is the play for the $500,000 Guaranteed All-Stakes Pick Four:

$1 PK4- 2/7 with 1/2/4/6 with 2/9/10/11 with 2
TOTAL- $32

Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers made in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

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