Churchill Downs' fall season didn't end last weekend with the Breeders' Cup. In fact, that was more or less the beginning of the meet. The featured event on Saturday afternoon is the Grade 2 $175,000 Mrs. Revere at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Here is the analysis:
#1 Hungry Island- 4th at Belmont Park last time out in the Grade 1 Garden City behind Winter Memories. That would be the only time in nine lifetime races that this filly has failed to finish in the first three. A definite win candidate with Corey Nakatani aboard.
#2 Bizzy Caroline- 2nd to Daisy Devine in the Grade 3 Valley View on the turf at Keeneland on October 21. This will be her second start off the most recent layoff. This daughter of Afleet Alex posted a bullet 5F workout on November 5 at Keeneland in 1:01 2/5.
#3 Groupie Doll- With the addition of another length over the course of her last two performances, this filly could be working on a five-race win streak right now. The only issue as far as Saturday is that all of those races were on dirt or Polytrack. She ran eighth in her only previous turf attempt.
#4 Holidaysatthefarm- Finished 4th in that Grade 3 Valley View at generous odds of 35-1. She won the time before at Arlington in an Optional Claimer. She has been with graded company on three previous occasions in her career and was somewhat overmatched in all three.
#5 Sea Level Drive- 20-1 on the morning line for this go and might be the longshot to like after two wins in the last three and the other try was a second in the Grade 3 Pucker Up at Arlington Park on September 17. James Graham has the riding assignment.
#6 Smart Sting- You almost always have to watch these Canadian imports from Woodbine nowadays, especially when it comes to turf racing. The Dam of this runner is 2000 Breeders' Cup Filly And Mare Turf winner, Perfect Sting. John Velazquez will be aboard this one's first race since September 25.
#7 Don't Tell Sophia- Won last time out over the Polytrack at Keeneland on October 20 in an Allowance spot and has two bullet workouts there since that victory. She has never been more than 5-1 in her career, but I think that will not be the case Saturday. Her lone graded attempt with a disastrous 13th in that Grade 3 Pucker Up.
#8 Trac N Jam- Has already finished behind several horses she will face in here in recent races. Her last win was the ungraded Indiana Distaff on the turf at Indiana Downs on July 13. Expect her to appear on the scene late, that is if she can get into it at all.
#9 New Normal- Off since a win in June at Woodbine in the Alywow. Posted a bullet workout on November 5 over the training track at Woodbine. Robby Albarado pulled off the big upset with Court Vision last Saturday in the Mile, but even this could be a lot to expect here.
#10 Marketing Mix- Could not catch Together in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland on October 15, but won that aforementioned Grade 3 Pucker Up the time before. Will likely be the betting choice in here and deservedly so. Julien Leparoux gets the call.
#11 Tourmaline- Won the Remington Park Oaks last time out on October 16 and that clearly didn't impress the Kentuckians, as she is 50-1 on the morning line here. She did win the Assiniboia Downs Oaks and another Oaks race at Canterbury. Of course, none of these victories came on the turf, so maybe she is lightly regraded for good reason.
#12 Louvakhova- Won the Frances Genter over yielding turf at Calder last time out on October 15. The vastly underrated Corey Lanerie has the riding assignment. This filly has never been worse than second in seven lifetime appearances.
TOP FOUR SELECTIONS: 1-2-10-5
Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!