Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Future Search

Guess what, as of Saturday, we have exactly 32 weeks until the 2012 Kentucky Derby!! That's right, the next Run For The Roses is practically right around the corner and the odds are already out and they are probably going to be as good as they are going to get right now.

The Wynn/Encore Sports Book has published their odds for the 2012 Derby and they have listed three favorites at 35-1: Creative Cause, Drill, and Union Rags. Drill is scheduled to be heading to the track this weekend for his first effort around two turns in the Grade 1 Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita. Creative Cause is also listed as a possibility for that race at Santa Anita. Union Rags won over a sloppy strip in the Saratoga Special and you can likely look for him to run again in the Grade 1 Champagne next weekend at Belmont Park.

Take Charge Indy is next on the Wynn odds board at 45-1 to win the Derby next year. The runner-up in the Arlington-Washington Futurity is likely to go next on October 8 also, but he will over the synthetic at Keeneland. One of the vagaries of future wagering is that the horse that beat Take Charge Indy in the Futurity, Shared Property, currently is listed at 150-1 to win the Derby. There are also two horses at 50-1 on the Wynn list, Alpha and Fire On Ice. Alpha won his maiden start at Saratoga on September 3 and might be facing Union Rags in the Champagne. Fire On Ice is another maiden winner from the recently concluded Saratoga season, his win coming on August 27. He is also scheduled to go in the Champagne. I am kind of getting the impression that the folks at the Wynn are thinking the Derby Trail is starting in New York next week, rather than in Arcadia this week.

I'll tell you what can be quite a bit of fun. Let's pick a horse that is triple digits on the Wynn Futures List and track his progress and see if he can make it to the Big Dance on May 5 next year. Shun is a Lemon Drop Kid offspring owned by Adele Dilschneider and Claiborne Farm currently listed at 200-1 on the Future Book. He won at Turfway Park in his first career start. He won a two-turn mile in his first career start. Let's see where he goes and see if we might not be able to follow him all the way to the gate in the 139th Kentucky Derby.

Tune in again on Thursday for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

1 comment:

Buddy said...

Looks like Hansen is 50-1 now as well. And that horse looks fantastic...although front running style so tough to hold.