Friday, June 03, 2011

The Grade 3 $100,000 Aristides Stakes

Aristides is a name very familiar to anyone who has even a basic knowledge of Thoroughbred racing. He is the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby, back in 1875. Churchill Downs has hosted a Stakes race named in his honor for the last 23 years, run at six furlongs. This year's edition of the Aristides features some very fast sprinters in its field of eight. Here is the analysis:

My top choice in here will be #8 Noble's Promise, who has had some success in the past at Churchill Downs. He actually held the lead at the top of the stretch in the 2010 Kentucky Derby before finishing a credible fifth. His lone recent trip at six furlongs came at Churchill Downs in the Jimmy V Stakes, where he posted a 102 Beyer figure in winning by nearly three lengths. His workout on May 28 was sparkling, covering five furlongs in 59 seconds flat for a bullet. Alan Garcia rides for trainer Ken McPeek. The next speed demon to use is #3 Capt. Candyman Can. He ran fourth in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs on Derby Day this year, but was only a half-length of the winner in what was a blanket finish. His other two 2011 starts were victories, one at Gulfstream and one at Tampa Bay. Keep in mind he in the stretch in that Derby Day undercard race and that race was a full furlong longer than the race today. We return to a past winner we picked for the third choice with #1 Here Comes Ben. They Are Off selected him in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga last summer when he scored at odds of 10-1. He was never a factor in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs, finishing seventh after not contending. That race is just one of two times in seven starts in Louisville that he has not hit the board. Julien Leparoux will be in the saddle here. For fourth, I will use #5 Cash Refund, who was a winner in the slop at Churchill last time out on May 15. His past Beyers suggest that he can contend here with the right trip. The catch is that he will likely be up front on what promises to be a sizzling pace and will have to hold off the closers to get the job done, which I find difficult to fathom. Here is the play for the Grade 3 Aristides:

$5 WP #8
$1 EX BOX 1-3-5-8
$1 TRI 1-3-8 with 1-3-8 with 1-2-3-5-7-8
TOTAL- $50

Currently, the blog is MINUS $561. I have been shopping for a tourniquet to stanch the bleeding. Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

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