Belmont Park has an interesting feature race on the Saturday program this week, one week out from the Belmont Stakes. The Grade 2 Vagrancy features a field of seven going 6 1/2 furlongs and there seems to be more speed in this race than will be at the Indianapolis 500 on Sunday. Literally, there could be six of the seven horses in the field battling it out for the lead by the time they reach the far turn. With that being said, here are the selections:
Of course, I will pick the one horse I don't think factors into the speed in this race and that is #2 Hour Glass. She seems to prefer coming off the pace and with everyone else gunning for the front, she might just sit back of everything and strike at the perfect time and with the extra half-furlong in the sprint distance, she should also have time to get things done. I will put the horse that beat her in the Grade 2 Distaff Handicap at Aqueduct in second with #3 Tar Heel Mom. That win in the mud at Aqueduct came with Ramon Dominguez aboard. Alan Garcia is reclaiming the ride on the mare today and he could only manage two seconds at Gulfstream with her this winter. She might be versatile enough to go quick early and then again, she might also sit back a bit. Regardless, I think the #2 will have her measure on Saturday. #4 Malibu Prayer is my third choice with John Velazquez riding. She is riding a two-race win streak into Saturday, but she has been away from the races since last November. This could be a tough spot for a speedball to come back after such a layoff. She could very easily get caught short. Finally, I will put #7 Saarlight in fourth. She is making the 2nd start off the layoff and has been 2nd in both previous attempts at Belmont, although both were over muddy surfaces. Eibar Coa gets the ride. Here is the play for the Grade 2 $150,000 Vagrancy Handicap:
$20 WIN #2
$5 EX BOX #2+ #3
TOTAL- $30
Remember, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
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1 comment:
Michael,
HG is an honest filly, 1st/2nd in 7 of 8 starts. She figures to put in her even run. Bullet breeze in plain view as well as G.2 2nd to TAR HEEL MOM.
However, I'll take a swing with MALIBU PRAYER who could kick off the holiday weekend in a big way for Ed Evans, Todd Pletcher, and John Velazquez (QR in the Met Mile). She's fresh off a solid 3y.o. campaign including a scintillating mile stakes win at Bel back in September. First time 4y.o. angle looks stronger considering Pletcher's 23% strike rate w/ returnees.
SAARLIGHT would have been an appealing alternative if not for the stumble at the start of her 4y.o. debut. She should have horrified that OC/Alw group, got the lead despite the early trouble, but could not find energy late to hold on. Believe she'll battle w/ THM early, but both will succumb to MP.
TAR HEEL MOM's BSF's are trending downward and this is her 5th race in the cycle. Vulnerable at a short price in my book.
Good luck this weekend.
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