Saturday might be the last, best chance for a horse that wants to run in the Kentucky Derby to earn the necessary graded stakes purse money for the right to get into the field. However, in the Grade 2 $300,000 Lexington Stakes, only one member of the field appears able to qualify and that is El Camino Real Derby winner, Connemara, and he has to win to get enough money for it to matter. With that said, here is the analysis of the Grade 2 $300,000 Lexington Stakes:
I am going to go with an upsetter in the Lexington Stakes and pick #4 Bushwhacked. He just broke the maiden last time out at seven furlongs over the synthetic at Keeneland and his Beyer speed figures have improved with each successive start. He has a strong last workout on April 14, covering five furlongs at Keeneland in 1:01. Rajiv Maragh has the mount for trainer Jonathan Sheppard, who is 5 for 7 in-the-money during the current Keeneland meet. I will put #10 Connemara second. He has never missed the money in five lifetime starts, all of them have been over synthetic surfaces. If he were to win, he would likely add to the already imposing Todd Pletcher contingent going to the Kentucky Derby. Russell Baze comes in from California for the riding assignment. I think that #1 Krypton could be dangerous on Saturday and not just if your name is Superman. He went turf to synthetic last time out on April 2 at Keeneland and scored a nice win at seven furlongs. This will be his first try ever with graded company and some facets of the breeding suggest that he should have done better than just one win in four tries over the turf. Finally, I will wrap up the top four with #2 Uptowncharlybrown, who failed miserably when given the chance to prove himself earlier this year at Tampa Bay Downs. The longer the races and the tougher the competition, the worse his performances got. His last work was a bullet and he gets Garrett Gomez in the saddle here, both positive signs. Here is the play for the Grade 2 $300,000 Lexington Stakes:
$5 WP #4
$1 EX BOX 1-4-10 and $1 TRI BOX 1-4-10
They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers placed in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in next week for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!