Friday, November 13, 2009

Florida Million Day Pick Four

Calder hosts many great events through its season and Saturday's is the Florida Million Day. There will be an All-Stakes Pick Four on races seven through ten and the following is the $1 play for the Pick Four:

Race 7- The Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf- I consider this to be the most wide-open of the four races that comprise this Pick Four wager. I am going to use five of the twelve horses in this field in today's play. My top pick is #3 Family Foundation, who will gets the riding services of the red-hot Julien Leparoux. This gelding ran 3rd in the Grade 3 Bourbon over yielding turf at Keeneland last time out on October 11 and won the two previous starts before that. I also like the lightly-raced #6 Lucky Irish Day, who was a winner in his only previous start over the Calder turf on October 16. The Sire is 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, Awesome Again. #11 Bim Bam will be trying the turf for the first time today. He has a win and a third in his two prior two-turn efforts. #12 Bernie The Maestro ran 3rd in his first turf go last time out on October 29 and posted a bullet 5F workout on November 9. Finally, we will use #2 Concorde's Fury, who is likely a speed horse for the #6, but still deserves inclusion in the play, in case he can go all the way up top.

Race 8- The Jack Dudley Sprint Handicap- I was tempted to single #8 Pashito The Che, but his two superior efforts in recent races came at Philadelphia Park and in the slop at Belmont. Since he is 2 for 2 with a high Tomlinson number for wet surfaces, it raises a question in the Belmont win was just a preference for slop. Therefore, I will also use #6 Little Nick, who is switching from turf to dirt after running 4th in the Grade 2 Nearctic at Woodbine on October 17.

Race 9- The Elmer Huebeck Distaff Handicap- Julien Leparoux got high marks for his horse in the first leg of the Pick Four and it happens again here with #6 Jessica Is Back. She has five wins in fifteen prior Calder races. She is making her second start off the last layoff and she was less than even-money (though beaten) in her last start. That's a lot to like in her corner. Since I have always been a big fan of Repent, I will also use his offspring in here, #9 Sweet Repent, who won her last two at Calder before taking some time off after the score in the Judy's Red Shoes.

Race 10- The Bonnie Heath Turf Cup Handicap- The top pick in this one is #8 Soldier's Dancer, who won a $250,000 stakes race at Philadelphia Park in mid-September before taking a break. Since then, he has four slow and steady workouts at six furlongs, much like the two he had before the big win at Philadelphia. Also, nine of his eleven lifetime wins are over the greenery. #3 Pickapocket ran 2nd last time out in an Allowance spot that seems like a prep for today more than anything. He also sports a strong workout on November 9 and his Beyer speed figures are incredibly consistent.

To recap, here is the $1 play for the Florida Million Day Pick Four:

$1 PK4- 2/3/6/11/12 with 6/8 with 6/9 with 3/8
TOTAL- $40

Remember, as always, They Are Off accepts no responsibility for any wagers made in conjunction with these selections. They are merely suggestions. Tune in again on Monday for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!

1 comment:

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