There are two major prep races for the 132nd Kentucky Derby on Saturday and here is some quick analysis of those two races: The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Remember, these are just my opinions and I accept no responsibility for the accuracy or results of these races.
As far as Keeneland is concerned, this is primarily a speed-favoring racetrack. If your horse can get to the lead entering the final 1/4 mile, you will more than likely be in contention at the end. In the Blue Grass, there are two horses that stand above the rest, Bluegrass Cat and First Samurai. Both have excellent speed and both have been mentioned as possible Derby winners at one time or another by many "experts". I tend to side with First Samurai because I think he will be faster earlier and get the lead and be tough to overtake. Bluegrass Cat will more than likely be a solid second all the way around the racetrack. The longshot to like here should be Sinister Minister (15-1), who ran 2nd to Cause To Believe last time out and that is a horse I might like the first Saturday in May.
At Oaklawn, Lawyer Ron has been my Kentucky Derby horse since the end of January and has done nothing in Arkansas to change that opinion. He has won five straight and has already beaten many of the horses he will be facing here. The price horse to check out here is With A City (15-1), who was a 48-1 winner of the Lane's End Stakes at Turfway. He has won 3 of 4 and is certainly worth a look.
The best of luck to you all.